Corona virus outbreak starting to worry me. Chinese gov seems to be hiding true scale of infection as the measures they take, closing down whole cities, seem not congruent with the rather low reported amount of infected and deaths that would be still below 1000. However, even these numbers clearly show an exponential rise of cases the past 2 weeks.
It's very concerning that the incubation period can be 2 weeks before you get sick and in meantime you can spread it, and quite easily just like a couch, fever or flu it transmits through the air and even on objects virus stays alive couple of days. The sickness however is much more severe as a flu, attacking your lungs and causing one to have too little air. Old and young are most vulnerable, but at death rate of 3%, even people in their prime are at risk.
Since there are already 25 countries with confirmed cases this might become global pandemic which would impact all markets. Sold some #Tesla to pay off the small margin loan & leverage I still had, bringing down my #Cash position from -10% to 0% and bringing down my $TSLA exposure from 60% to 50%.
#Crypto, the other 50% of my portfolio, considering cutting back my 15% $BCH and 30% $ETH exposure to only 30% total exposure (selling 33% of each), as cryptocurency is certainly no safe harbour asset yet but perceived as one of the riskiest investments by most, sold likely as the first, before stock indexes, bonds or real estate.
This black swan event justifies breaking my golden rule to never sell crypto in early bull market because this threat tilts crypto case short term very bearish considering all the red flags already present in the market such as:
- NVT ratio again in red territory (amount of transactions vs value network),
- Testing bottom at $125B still probable when extrapolating past growth even without a global crises,
- Amount of transactions not even going up yet in leaders like $BTC & $ETH, which will keep value investors away,
- Sentiment again greedy after doubling in 1 month.
Fiat rarely a good investment, except when rare serious crisis hits, therefore aiming to build a 20% USD cash position. Be Safe.
Also made video on it:
Links
Great video's on #Coronavirus current situation:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=nkF4qYdNU9Y&t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k-2FNy_VDQ
Stats #CoronaOutbreak
https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://twitter.com/MarcDeMesel/status/1226425843863388166
Sentiment Crypto:
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
Fundamentals Crypto:
Dave goes to essence of value #cryptocurrencies can offer & what he likes to see before #investing (ie: exp increase transactions, which he can't see yet ...): https://youtu.be/osjYa4h0xRM https://twitter.com/MarcDeMesel/status/1226145354388852739
