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Portfolio Update: Last Call For BCH?

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Avatar for MarcDeMesel
Written by   1518
1 month ago

Since kicks ass, let me share also here my portfolio from time to time. Last update was 1 month back on My call that crypto would likely accelerate parabolically once ATH of 800B broke came true in meantime, we are at 1.5T already.

BCH was then 40%, ETH 20% exposure. Continued to flip ETH for BCH bringing it down to 10% and BCH to 50%, but thanks to going up more as ETH, from low of 0.3 ETH per BCH to now 0.4 ETH per BCH, my exposure went to 55%.

This means I got now a majority exposure to the project I believe in the most to make a difference to the world, and to my net worth: Bitcoin Cash. I continued to also invest and donate, from my fiat converting into BCH, to different companies, projects and people creating value for BCH. This is cheating my investment strategy a bit as following the Kelly Criterion, I am not allowed to invest more fiat into an asset where recommended Kelly allocation is lower than what I already have. But a rule book can be cheated on a little as long as one is aware of it and it is an exception.

I did this because I believe the opportunity has not past yet to invest strong still in BCH, but that may change over the next month. We are still at depressed levels for BCH, not vs fiat, but vs BTC and ETH, but once it pumps also vs BTC and ETH, the big opportunity has past us and risk went up a lot. Read my previous articles here for more, but all indicators such as BTC/BCH ratio, ETH/BCH ratio, NVT ratio, still show big undervaluation.

Here my portfolio in detail:

Despite losing 3% to my bet on Trump and screwing up shorting GameStop by trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, my Compound Annual Growth Rate has risen to 49% since 2008. Crazy top performance and protecting myself against a serious correction in the market is therefore wise.

I continue to short more Gold as I still believe this to be one of the best ways to protect yourself against both a strong market correction or a continued period of rising stock markets. In both scenario's Gold is likely to perform poorly. However instead of shorting more GLD stock I am focused on buying more puts on GLD now as I realized there is no point to short more and raise more cash if I am unable to reinvest this cash due to max leverage reached with my broker.

As I saw confirmed in the book from legendary investor Robert Wilson the big opportunity in shorting is not in the short itself but in being able to long/invest more thanks to the cash proceeds you receive from the short. So been bringing down my cash exposure with my broker strongly from 30% to 13% past month by reducing leverage, selling half my tankers (10%), closing my short on Bonds (-10%), and withdrawing the freed up cash to crypto markets to invest and donate to BCH projects before it explodes.

Tankers seem to be past their bottom but still happy I sold half as the profits I made by investing proceeds in BCH, even when just given away as donations, are likely higher than what Tankers can offer. My biggest concern about Tanker thesis is that in the very long term, it's not looking good for oil demand and will go down as the auto converts to electricity. Even if there is a shortage of ships and shipping rates go up a lot again, investor may be hesitant to pump up valuation accordingly if they don't see the very long term as bullish.

I did discipline myself to only sell half my position at once, learning from the huge opportunity cost I payed selling my TSLA and especially TSLA calls too aggressively all at once. They say, cut your losses fast, let your winners run. But how do you know a loser is a loser? And a winner is a winner? Only over time, so working in steps wise.

Wishing you good judgement.

Check great interview I did past month about Bitcoin Cash:

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Avatar for MarcDeMesel
Written by   1518
1 month ago
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