Can an earthquake be predicted?

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Avatar for sandra22
4 years ago

The media report that this night, December 17, an earthquake shook Kikinda slightly. At the same time, a slightly stronger earthquake was recorded in Durres, an Albanian city that was already hit by a dramatic series of earthquakes in late November and early December that killed 50 people. The rest of the region has not been dormant for weeks either - the country's earthquakes have been felt several times in Turkey, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina .

These circumstances have led many to think about how the coincidence is not accidental and that from previous earthquakes one can see in advance what is coming from below. But can earthquakes really be predictable?

Unfortunately, unlike many other, also dangerous natural disasters, such as hurricanes, storms or floods present in our country, earthquakes cannot be recorded in advance with any device and spotted before they occur. Although all earthquakes are constantly monitored in seismological stations, and in nature there are so-called non-seismic phenomena that precede them, earthquakes that occur due to the movement of tectonic plates, ie their impact time, epicenter and true strength, are difficult to predict.

Most scientists today believe that this is not a technology or method that we have not yet mastered, but that it is not even theoretically possible. Thus, the British author Robert Matthews wrote in his 1997 paper that "in any practical sense, it is impossible to predict the occurrence of an earthquake." There is a widespread view that this phenomenon may belong to the so-called self-organized critical phenomena (which physicists, intrigued by unpredictability, have been studying with passion in recent decades) where a series of minor mechanical events at some point that cannot be predicted mathematically suddenly turns into an avalanche.
However, in the seventies of the 20th century, there was a completely different opinion among many seismologists - that earthquakes can still be predicted and that it will be possible to develop a reliable alarm system in ten years.

However, later research, strong failures in forecasting, as well as controversy over the 1975 earthquake in China, which was announced a year earlier, led to this view being largely rejected in the 1990s.

Today, especially in earthquake areas, various fast alarm systems have been developed in order to react as soon as possible when an earthquake is noticed. Also, a whole scientific field has been developed that deals with earthquake risk assessments. But there is no method by which one can determine exactly when, where and how hard the next earthquake will hit.

Scientific knowledge, the development of physics, and especially meteorology, have led to the fact that although sometimes we cannot stop them, at least we can easily predict the dangers that nature presents to us. This kind of modern comfort excludes true uncertainty from natural elements, so it is difficult for the public and decision-makers to accept that there are still such terrible threats that are "inherently unpredictable".

This issue ended up in court on one occasion. Namely, after the earthquake in L'Aquila in Italy in 2009, seven seismologists were convicted because they did not announce in advance that a devastating earthquake would come after a series of minor earthquakes. On the contrary, they believed that there was no danger and the population was not evacuated. The trial has attracted a great deal of attention and reactions from scientists around the world. Eventually, in the proceedings before the higher court, the scientists were released.

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4 years ago

Comments

Only god knows what to be happen

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4 years ago

Keep sharing whatever you can 😁😁😁

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4 years ago

Earthquakes are very dangerous and do a lot of damage. It is strange how in the age of modern technology scientists cannot predict an earthquake.

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4 years ago

My city was hit by a strong earthquake ten years ago and it was very terrible, there were casualties and many houses were demolished.

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4 years ago

I'm not sure what the result is if the earthquake is predicted, it can't be stopped, eventually the people can be evacuated, we all remember the earthquake in Skopje, I had the opportunity to talk to the man who survived that earthquake.

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4 years ago

I lived most of my life on the ninth floor and the earthquake was very, very stressful for me at that height. When he starts to shake the bed, he starts to slide around the room, the chandeliers to swing, the piano can only keep the wall ... that's where the panic of all of us starts. I remember spending the night in a car wrapped in blankets countless times. I don't like that natural phenomenon and I hope I will never experience it again.

I wish there was that warning that there would be an earthquake. At least that is important to me and it can save many lives.

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4 years ago

Yeah You're all good about earthquake prediction. Such a great informative post dear. Keep sharing

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4 years ago

This is what i want to know as well... If typhoon and other natural calamities can be predicted, an earthquake cannot I guess. But I hope other countries like ours can have that fast alarm system too. It is also prone to earthquake

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4 years ago

Earthquakes although scientific in occurrence and can be explained,is beyond the natural itself.

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4 years ago

An earthquake is the worst phenomenon that exists, and honestly I am very afraid of it. I don't think there is a way to predict an earthquake.

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4 years ago

No technology invented which can predicted the earthquake. Hope it will intvent soon

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4 years ago

Earthquakes can occur naturally or as a result of human activity. Minor earthquakes can also be caused by volcanic activity, landslides, explosions and nuclear tests. In the broadest sense, the word earthquake is used to describe any seismic event - whether a natural phenomenon or a man-made event - that generates seismic waves.

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4 years ago

thats actually a pretty sobering thought. honestly thought we did have the technology for this! so crazy that we will go to space but not have advanced earthquake warnings

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4 years ago

According to what I have learned before in our science subject, there is noy device yet that could detect an earthquake.

Moreover, I have learned that earthquakes happens because of the moving of tectonic plates due to magma and other reasons. Correct me if I am wrong.

Anyways, thanks for sharing this kind of informative article.

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4 years ago

You're right. There is no way currently off predicting it. Is nearly imposible to know beforehand when or where an underground movement (quite deep in fact) is going to happen or why. But maybe we solve it with future tech. Mankind always get around of apparently unsolvable problems over the history.

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4 years ago

Very pantastic article

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4 years ago

Always nine article Dear

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4 years ago

Good one

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4 years ago

Animals can sense chemical changes in groundwater that occur before an earthquake, which, scientists say, could explain the bizarre behavior of animals before the disaster.

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4 years ago

It is difficult to fight against natural disasters.

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4 years ago

Great information about this article my Dear

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4 years ago