2023 - what's next for crypto and for Bitcoin Cash?

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The year 2022 is coming to an end. Many people involved in crypto and Bitcoin Cash, especially those who have not been around long, are disillusioned and saddened. Some even predict the end of crypto and Bitcoin Cash. For those who have been around for a long time, it's nothing new. I've already experienced it several times. People and their emotions are very predictable.

Everyone who knows me knows that I am not interested in short-term trading. All short-term charts are indifferent to me. I am mainly interested in the adoption of crypto, especially Bitcoin Cash as a means of payment. But I also look at long term trends and I am a long term investor. Short-term charts are not very meaningful and only helpful for traders and short-term speculation, only longer-term charts show clear trends. So let's look at some longer-term charts. We start with the very good Colin's website cbbi.info

We see a clear long-term pattern here, which is related to the halving event of BTC. Every 4 to 5 years we experience a bull run, which is then followed by a bear market. If you trust Colin's charts, we should already be at the bottom, or close to it. Stabilization and a slow climb should follow in 2023. Then the bull run should come, but it will be much weaker than before. The chart suggests that the bull runs are getting weaker and weaker. I doubt that BTC will reach 100k, it will probably fail just before. Why this is so, I have written here.

The next long-term chart shows the BTC dominance. It is also very clear. BTC dominance is falling continuously and I see no reason and no signs that the trend should change. On the contrary, it can probably accelerate and BTC will lose its first place in CMC. Then a new era in crypto will begin. Will this happen as early as 2023? Very unlikely, it will probably take place after 2025. Will BTC be dead then? Of course not, BTC will continue to exist, miners will mine BTC and speculators will speculate with it, but it will no longer be so important in the crypto market and funds will increasingly flow away from BTC into other coins.

And here the big question is which coins will it be and whether Bitcoin Cash will be there. My answer is: I don't know. I suspect that in the long run the money will go into coins that have an established community and many users. Is Bitcoin Cash part of that? I think so. The past bull runs showed that other coins rose much more than BTC, probably it will be the same again now. Whether BCH will be one of them. I hope so.

If we look at BCH/BTC chart, we can see that the falling trend has reversed since around mid-July 2022. Is this already the permanent trend? The time span is still way too short to say for sure, but I hope so. This year BCH to BTC has lost a lot, But very many coins have lost much more to BTC than BCH this year. I must honestly say that after the CoinFLEX drama and the problems it caused with exchanging BCH to sBCH, I feared much worse. Apparently, the overall importance of CoinFLEX was low. Very many funds were indeed withdrawn from SmartBCH. Whether this project still has a chance to grow is very questionable. There are now so many smart contract chains and Ethereum fees have fallen sharply. We will see how it will develop further.

Overall, I have a positive outlook for 2023. We won't see big price increases, but around this time next year all cryptocurrencies should be in a much better position and BCH should continue to rise compared to BTC. Of course, these are only my private views and the future may be quite different. ๐Ÿ˜€

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Comments

It's about time for the bear market to end! Cheers to a better 2023 ๐ŸŒŸ

$ 0.01
1 year ago

Cheers ๐ŸปThank you for the tip.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

This is a good analysis, I agree with you that by 2025 a bull run can be seen as we all hope.

Now the thing is that the community is maintained, and I think that BCH is going to resist, mainly because of its strongest benefits, which are the low commissions and the speed in the confirmation of its transactions. Many people are unaware of this, and I am sure that as soon as the big financial institutions find out, they will want to take ownership of it. I hope that doesn't happen.

For 2023 I am not so optimistic, rather I think that in the 2nd quarter, around June or July, maybe we will see an improvement in the world of alt coins.

Your analysis of 5 years based on those arguments is great. I think the same, the cycle repeats itself and each Bull Run wears out, it suffers from obsolescence, and I believe that new whales and new protagonists are needed in the market so that there are fresh, current and more powerful Bull Runs.

Let's wait and see what happens in this world where the demand for "immediacy" to obtain profits and resources is what is the order of the day (it is not something that I exactly like, I am more of the supporters that everything must be earned with effort, making merits for it, and not giving a cookie to a child (of those of now) who already has everything by crying for 2 minutes).

$ 0.01
1 year ago

Thank you for the appreciation.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Youre welcome, is always nice read your predictions.

$ 0.01
1 year ago

I'm not sure if my predictions will come true, of course, but in Crypto a lot is built on emotions and human emotions are relatively predictable.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

That's right, there are patterns and modes of behavior, and usually when there is fear, people cling to their sense of belonging and choose the common place that everyone inhabits.

But there is always that small % of people who are curious, who question everything, who ask questions and investigate.

Unfortunately it has been proven that that small %, that minority, takes a long time to achieve the changes. Changes will happen, but it will take a long time for that to happen.

Which would be different if the largest % of people thought otherwise, in the same direction as the minority.

Curious but very true this principle my dear @Telesfor

$ 0.06
1 year ago

BTC loosing dominance continually. Is it means it's share in Crypto market decreasing slowly and other players capturing and biting it ? The analysis about BCH giving me lot of hope that next year ( may God bless us) same time I will be with smiling face as I commit to hold it till peak.

$ 0.01
1 year ago

BTC loosing dominance continually. Is it means it's share in Crypto market decreasing slowly and other players capturing and biting it ?

From my point of view, that's what's going to happen. BTC is first displaced by ETH, and later by others. I hope that after this, cryptos will experience a slow, steady upswing. The bear markets are caused by BTC. When BTC loses importance, which is very likely, there will be no more bear markets, I think.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

I remain very optimistic about the future of crypto or bitcoin Cash. Even if Bitcoin Cash deserves more real marketing, more visibility. Real campaigns. Solid! But otherwise cryptos are here to stay. This is just the beginning. :0)

Overall, I agree with your feeling.

$ 0.01
1 year ago

Thank you for the comment and the tip.

$ 0.00
1 year ago