2023 - what's next for crypto and for Bitcoin Cash?

The year 2022 is coming to an end. Many people involved in crypto and Bitcoin Cash, especially those who have not been around long, are disillusioned and saddened. Some even predict the end of crypto and Bitcoin Cash. For those who have been around for a long time, it's nothing new. I've already experienced it several times. People and their emotions are very predictable.

Everyone who knows me knows that I am not interested in short-term trading. All short-term charts are indifferent to me. I am mainly interested in the adoption of crypto, especially Bitcoin Cash as a means of payment. But I also look at long term trends and I am a long term investor. Short-term charts are not very meaningful and only helpful for traders and short-term speculation, only longer-term charts show clear trends. So let's look at some longer-term charts. We start with the very good Colin's website cbbi.info

We see a clear long-term pattern here, which is related to the halving event of BTC. Every 4 to 5 years we experience a bull run, which is then followed by a bear market. If you trust Colin's charts, we should already be at the bottom, or close to it. Stabilization and a slow climb should follow in 2023. Then the bull run should come, but it will be much weaker than before. The chart suggests that the bull runs are getting weaker and weaker. I doubt that BTC will reach 100k, it will probably fail just before. Why this is so, I have written here.

The next long-term chart shows the BTC dominance. It is also very clear. BTC dominance is falling continuously and I see no reason and no signs that the trend should change. On the contrary, it can probably accelerate and BTC will lose its first place in CMC. Then a new era in crypto will begin. Will this happen as early as 2023? Very unlikely, it will probably take place after 2025. Will BTC be dead then? Of course not, BTC will continue to exist, miners will mine BTC and speculators will speculate with it, but it will no longer be so important in the crypto market and funds will increasingly flow away from BTC into other coins.

And here the big question is which coins will it be and whether Bitcoin Cash will be there. My answer is: I don't know. I suspect that in the long run the money will go into coins that have an established community and many users. Is Bitcoin Cash part of that? I think so. The past bull runs showed that other coins rose much more than BTC, probably it will be the same again now. Whether BCH will be one of them. I hope so.

If we look at BCH/BTC chart, we can see that the falling trend has reversed since around mid-July 2022. Is this already the permanent trend? The time span is still way too short to say for sure, but I hope so. This year BCH to BTC has lost a lot, But very many coins have lost much more to BTC than BCH this year. I must honestly say that after the CoinFLEX drama and the problems it caused with exchanging BCH to sBCH, I feared much worse. Apparently, the overall importance of CoinFLEX was low. Very many funds were indeed withdrawn from SmartBCH. Whether this project still has a chance to grow is very questionable. There are now so many smart contract chains and Ethereum fees have fallen sharply. We will see how it will develop further.

Overall, I have a positive outlook for 2023. We won't see big price increases, but around this time next year all cryptocurrencies should be in a much better position and BCH should continue to rise compared to BTC. Of course, these are only my private views and the future may be quite different. 😀