A Lesson About Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt with Regard to Bitcoin Cash BCH
Today is a pretty red day in the crypto world. Bitcoin Cash BCH is dropping despite the "fundamental" indications all being positive. Check these two articles by Marc De Mesel: NVT ratio of BCH near ATL and of BTC near ATH at the same time and Great Time to Flip ETH for BCH.
Marc wrote these two articles within the last two days. Those of you who have been following Marc for a while might know that he doesn't normally publish an article every day. The last article before these two was published already 11 months ago and it warned about a possible Corona crash in crypto and stocks. As we all know now, it would have been a great idea to read this article... (By the way, I wish I knew about him back then and had read his article -- that would have saved me from suffering very high losses...)
Marc's two recent articles describe indications that now is probably not a bad time to buy some Bitcoin Cash and he describes the conviction he has in BCH.
The story I want to share with you
What he wrote in his articles reminded me of one of my first stocks I bought when I started investing two years ago. Being excited about that stock was actually the reason why I started investing in the first place and unfortunately, I made a lot of mistakes in the beginning. So here is the story:
I bought this stock and was super excited about it. However, when the price kept dropping and I was down more than 60% on my position, the FUD -- which is short for "fear, uncertainty and doubt" -- started to get to me. That was especially true, because this happened within my first months of investing into any stock. And being a complete beginner who had no idea about position size or diversification, my position in that stock was way too big. I put about 80% of my net worth into it. 😅🙈
That was pretty much an all or nothing bet -- and I realized that only once my returns became more and more red. And I even received multiple warnings from my broker about book losses due to the stock price dropping and dropping. And everybody, whom I tried to talk to about it, told me that I was about to lose my entire investment. And that I should have shorted the stock instead. (Aren't hind-sight-traders the best?)
On the internet I read everywhere that the company was about to go bankrupt. That there was no demand for their products. And even if there was demand, the competition would bring new products to the market and steal all the company's market share. And the profit margin would shrink even further. And the company only burns cash...
I had one sleepless night after the other. I felt sick all the time. I could not eat right. I felt like my life was about to end -- either financially by losing almost everything I own. Or physically, by worrying myself to death.
I kept checking the stock price almost every five minutes. And with every further drop, I felt worse.
Meanwhile, the shortsellers were celebrating their profits. I even unsubscribed from one YouTuber who kept rubbing his gains from shortselling this exact stock into the faces of his subscribers...
The company which I am writing about is Tesla.
What happened after all this FUD is well-known, I assume. The stock went to the moon. And then it continued to Mars. And once it got there, it built a base on Mars and it is possibly never coming back down to earth. We will see.
That may come as a surprise to many of you. That what I wrote above is actually what almost all people and the media said and wrote about the highflyer stock of the last year -- just one year before that happened.
So, obviously, I must be super rich now, right?
Unfortunately, the answer is "no".
So what happened?
As I wrote, I was so extremely worried about losing everything that I sold all the stocks I had -- once the stock started to recover. I'm glad that I didn't sell everything at a loss, but I started to sell way too early on the way up. Instead of multiplying my investment by more than ten times within one year, I ended up making about a 20% gain. 20% which easily could have been 1,000%. 🙈
In addition to the modest gains I earned one life lesson: FUD is most effective when it comes from people who are close to you... After having asked my parents to borrow some money to invest even more into Tesla -- when I was still convinced that it was a good investment and I was still able to ignore the FUD -- they kept bringing up that topic over and over and over again. And they made sure to send every FUD article my way...
You might be wondering "why does this guy write about Tesla when the title clearly says the article is about Bitcoin Cash?"
Good question. Here is why:
Parallels between Bitcoin Cash and Tesla
Bitcoin Cash at this moment reminds me of the situation in Tesla 2 years ago:
Back then the FUDsters were saying Tesla would go bankrupt and the competition would overtake them soon with new products. And by the way, there is no demand for Tesla's products anyway. (They actually claimed that Teslas are being parked at huge parking lots and that nobody buys the cars...)
Now the FUD in Bitcoin Cash is that it will drop out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies and it will be irrelevant soon.
Another parallel:
Two years ago Tesla had already great products and very skilled people working for them.
As Marc described in his two most recent articles, the same seems to be true for Bitcoin Cash.
My conclusion
Let's hope the BCH price will parallel the recent Tesla stock development soon. And this time I will ride hodl and ride it to the top. 😅
I hope that will happen sooner rather than later. But I'm patient. It might take longer than I think. It might even become a painful time with lots of more FUD to come.
That's why I buy a position size which will not give me sleepless nights if that happens.
The hodl
If I had held all the Tesla stock I once owned, I would be a rich man right now. But the FUD -- and the subsequent relief that I was able to sell with a small profit instead of a giant loss -- combined with trying to trade the stock made me miss almost all of the gains I would have made if I just held -- or hodled.
If an asset is priced too low for very long, you can expect an extreme rise in price once it starts to correct its undervaluation. Maybe we will see this in BCH soon.
The rise might be slow at first and might seem almost vertical later -- which might tempt you to sell and buy back later for a cheaper price. But that's actually super hard to do right, because the price might not ever come back down and you might miss out on a 10x rise.
I wasn't prepared for such a rise a year ago. I hope I will be this time. 😅
And because today is another red day in the crypto world: This is a song for everybody who thinks about selling his or her crypto today.
Previous FUD in Bitcoin
The following video is a nice compilation of all the times Bitcoin supposedly was doomed to fail. They quote the headlines together with the Bitcoin prices at the time. Compare these historical prices with the recent all-time-high above $41,000. 😉
Keep in mind that Bitcoin Cash BCH is the Bitcoin how it was described in the original whitepaper. And it is the Bitcoin how it used to be in the initial years.
By the way: Happy Birthday Roger Ver! What better day to write this article than today!
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noise.cash'dan geliyorum.