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The China ban in May led to a 50% drop in BTC price and also resulted in a trillion-dollar wipe out from the crypto industry. However, slowly the prices recovered and most cryptocurrencies are reaching new highs today.
During August, there was recovery, and Ethereum took the lead. It reduced the gap with Bitcoin and still looks like a strong candidate to take over the first place in market cap terms.
We have also witnessed an increase in the dominance of BTC lately. It was at a bottom of 40% and now rising above 47% inside a few weeks. This is the outcome of the BTC ETF approval by the SEC, and support to BTC by exchanges that increased dominance.
Analyzing the current BTC trend, I find the odds of breaking into new ATH to be 99% and reaching a very higher valuation, perhaps 70-80k before it finds resistance. It could be in days, but it could also be in minutes while I am writing this article.
Nobody is selling currently and there is a positive sentiment that usually is not wrong in this particular moment (breaking in new ATH).
For investors in other cryptocurrencies (as me), I suggest not doing mistakes. I remember how I was watching the LTC chart in 2017 at $35 and how I sold all just to jump on something else that was "pumping". Missed a 10x this way.
I hold zero BTC and while I used to trade in previous years, I am not interested in it anymore. Still, If I was trading it, I wasn't going to put substantial money in BTC today. There is a very low reward to be made while other opportunities (such as Bitcoin Cash) are rare to find.
Last year when BTC was trading at 10k this was a good time to buy, this time I find this to be a very short-term opportunity with a high risk involved.
BTC will make a parabolic upside rise with huge green candles once it breaks into new ATH. This is how it goes since nobody is selling.
Although, it is always heavily supported by exchanges that also proceed with boosting its price by selling reserves of their "altcoins". Eventually, the rest cryptocurrencies catch up, although as I remember it in 2017, there were times of pain with 25% loss and long wait time. Give it time and don't sell early if you plan for short-term gains. Currently, I am not, the plan is to keep holding. Moreover, I am investing in SmartBCH tokens and DeFi, which have a long-term potential to increase way more than BTC.
After BTC passes a certain threshold (which I haven't figured out yet how whales work), there is always a pump in prices of the rest.
Whales move out from BTC, and BTC begins losing dominance and price, while all cryptocurrencies enjoy a short-term craze. This is also the last phase of the bull run and BTC will try to regain the previous ATH but will fail since whales will begin massively selling every coin into USD and euro.
It will be the same, don't be disillusioned that this market will only keep rising. This can take a few more months and no more. Until the moment BTC is overthrown and another coin takes over the first place in this market, there will be bull runs and bear markets, both lasting years.
Today we have too many that are already overvalued and they can still go higher more. After BTC, there will be a "pump" of Ethereum. This is how it usually works. Then all the rest. There will be a 20-30% rise in crypto-asset prices daily. Huge pumps that will eventually all crash to more realistic prices.
One piece of advice at this point, there will be plenty of shilling all the way. One coin that will 10x, will be followed by massive advertising and suddenly will become highly popular, just to achieve enough buyers so the whales of this coin can sell.
From my experience, this is what happened with XVG, IOTA, TRX, and a lot more in 2020 (LINK, Doge, Shiba). If you get in early in one of these hype-trains (before the hype begins), there will be a high risk that it won't succeed. If you get in late, you are gambling and risking too much.
In my opinion, hype trains don't worth it, so stick with the fundamentals. Since we know Bitcoin Cash is undervalued today, it is best not to risk moving to any other coin and risk wasting the plan.
After another huge increase in almost all cryptocurrencies, there comes the moment of realization. Prices grow to such heights that will no longer be sustainable and the crash begins. Everyone will be exiting fast enough and interest will return to normal.
ETFs, CME, Bakkt, Grayscale, etc., does not make a big difference. The bear market is there since this is the structure of the BTC speculative waves.
It was still early in May, and those that thought it wasn't over yet, they were right.