ETFs Are Unlikely to Reverse The Decline of Bitcoin (BTC)
The price action of Bitcoin (BTC) and several other cryptocurrencies is almost identical to the months before the 2020 halving.
From the big four cryptocurrencies, the price of Bitcoin BTC, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash recovered in 2023, with Bitcoin Cash leading the summer mini-bull run.
Yet, we also have a slightly different sentiment this time, with Binance changing leadership and crypto influencers amassing vast power that could only lead to billions lost from the next custodial collapse.
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing several challenges. Fees keep rising, and Core devs celebrate. Meanwhile, Lightning is not even operational after eight years of development, and even LN devs quit in disgust as the narrative expired.
Custodial LN wallets prove their proneness to censorship as Wallet of Satoshi abandons the US market.
Is the overhyped institutional adoption what was missing?
Spot ETFs Will Not Change Anything
(Source: Kallisti.cash on X.com)
While there are some benefits to ETFs and institutionalization, it is important to note that Bitcoin’s dependence on institutions will only accelerate the innevitable collapse.
Just the noise around the ETFs further reduces Bitcoin’s disruptive potential.
From a fierce and disruptive competitor to the banking system, Bitcoin (BTC) is reduced to a systemic aligned asset desperate to attract institutional attention.
CME futures and Bakkt were also supposed to change the fate of Bitcoin. Both these events turned out to be “sell the news” (especially CME).
Too many negative signs are there for the BTC version of Bitcoin, and even the fourth halving will disappoint investors expecting extreme returns.
Perhaps the ETFs will not assist Bitcoin (BTC) in whatever targets the dedicated fans of this coin set.
What is expected is another rally in Bitcoin’s price, but it is unclear why anyone should invest in this cryptocurrency nowadays.
Other blockchain technologies have innovated, and people are starting to take notice.
Bitcoin Cash keeps getting vindicated as those who opposed Bitcoin Cash are now acknowledging the deception and brainwashing by Blockstream.
While some are still supporting the Blockstream agenda and BTC, it is unlikely that this will continue indefinitely.
Conclusion
BTC investors should expect a short-lived price rally with a new ATH (not significantly higher than the previous one) and an 80% collapse right after.
The price action will disappoint speculators and BTC investors, who will begin moving to better networks.
Even the maxiest of the maxis will offload their BTC bags as they will watch the price revisiting 2017 levels (lower than $20k) in 2025.
In the next two years, hodlers will abandon BTC en masse. Even the most devoted BTC supporters are starting to realize the manipulation and indoctrination carried out by Blockstream. Their BTC bags are still heavy, so they hold while waiting for the final pump.
Yet it won’t be long before they abandon the bags, especially when the fourth halving will be an utter disappointment in price terms. .
You already know Bitcoin Cash was right about everything.
You need not ask for permission to join the P2P revolution (again) any time you want. Bitcoin cash, the version of Bitcoin that didn’t sell out to the banks, will be there.
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Bitcoin's price action is similar to before the halving, but this time there are concerns about leadership and crypto influencers. Rising fees and delays in Lightning development are also challenges. Institutional adoption may not be the answer, as the noise around ETFs could limit Bitcoin's disruption.