I noticed an interesting trend when tracking prices for the Moments in the 2020 NBA Finals challenge in my last post. This challenge has now closed, but have there been any change in pricing for collectors since yesterday?

Table 1 below shows asking prices and quantities for all the Moments that I have tracked for this challenge over 48 hours. I will omit Scarcity Factor from my discussion again, because I'm working on some calculations that are raw and not completed. The other variables were defined in the first article of this series.

Related reading: NBA Top Shot NFT - 2020 NBA Finals Challenge - Pricing trends Part 1

Related reading: What is a non-fungible token (NFT)?

Observations

The following are my observations through the perspective of someone who wanted to complete this challenge starting at the last possible moment (about one hour prior to the challenge ending):

• The lowest asking prices for all but two Moments have dropped over the past 48 hours, ranging from 5% to 30%.

• The cost to purchase a single 2020 NBA Finals pack was $230, but they all sold out within a few minutes of the drop on October 19, 2020. All but three of the Moments in this series have maintained their lowest asking prices above $230.

• The biggest seller was the Alex Caruso 2020 Finals Moment with 6 sold based on my data. That means that there were potentially 6 more sets completed over the past 48 hours. The lowest asking prices for his Moment held steady, and did not drop over the past 48 hours.

• There were 27 Danny Green 2020 Finals Moments on the market based on my earliest data (highest supply value), and his Moment now has the lowest asking price in the entire set. Is it a surprise to see it even lower than those for Miami players? A little bit for me, but there may be some recency bias attributed to that. A lot of Lakers fans questioned the quality of his playoff performance. I wonder if it will appreciate in the future?

• No brand new collections were created over the past 24 hours, because twelve LeBron James 2020 Finals Moments remain on the Marketplace.

• The lowest cost (excluding transaction fees, etc.) to complete one set from scratch decreased by about 5% since yesterday, down to $4,209 at time of writing. Overall, this cost dropped about 12% since I started tracking this data.

Limitations

• Any trends may not be meaningful due to the small sample sizes recorded.

• Although NBA Top Shot is now open to the public, just a little more than 3,300 individuals collect these NFTs based on data on the NBA Top Shot homepage.

My thoughts

The cost of buying a complete set is lower today compared to buying a complete set two days ago. That shows that it paid to be a patient collector for this series.

I observed some collectors buying 10 packs at a time when the drop occurred. Contrary to my initial reaction, it turns out this was not a crazy strategy for completing the 2020 Finals challenge. If you were extremely lucky, and only needed to purchase 10 packs to complete this challenge, your cost would have been $2,300 (excluding transaction fees, etc.). By comparison, buying a complete set from scratch at the last minute would have cost $4,209.

If you had surplus Legendary Moments from your 10 packs, you were able to sell them on the Marketplace to recoup some of your costs, and reallocate them to buy the Moments that you were missing. This strategy worked extremely well for the collectors who were fortunate to get one or more LeBron James Legendary Moments in their packs.

Even if the strategy of buying 10 packs didn't result in a collector getting a LeBron James Moment, it appears the acquisition cost to complete the Challenge could have still been lower than buying them all separately at the last minute, using strategies mentioned above. The lowest asking price for a last-minute LeBron was $1,775.

• Cost of ten 2020 Finals packs = $2,300

• Cost of lowest priced LeBron James = $1,755

• Total spent = $4,075 (compared to $4,209 noted above)

Based on current pricing, these packs have offered good value one week after selling out. It will be interesting to see if individual Moments in this series hold their value in the future, and what the value of the challenge reward (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Legendary Moment) will be when it is listed on the Marketplace.

Disclaimer

I do not appraise sports memorabilia professionally, and this is not investment advice. All calculations and analysis are my own. Only spend the money that you can afford to lose.

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Lead image and Graphic 1: 2020 NBA Finals -Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Legendary Moment reward for completing challenge - Screen cap from nbatopshot.com

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Resources:

1. https://www.nbatopshot.com/search?bySets=320cae53-d585-4e74-8a66-404fa3543c19