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NBA Top Shot NFT - 2020 NBA Finals Challenge - Pricing trends Part 1

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Avatar for CryptoWordsmith
Written by   75
1 year ago

I introduced the 2020 NBA Finals challenge in my post yesterday, and I have decided to track the prices for all the Moments in that series. This will allow me to look for trends, and to also try determining value of these NFTs in my own way in future articles.

Table 1 below shows asking prices and quantities for all the Moments in this challenge. I will omit Scarcity Factor from my discussion for now. The other variables were defined in my previous article.

Related reading: NBA Top Shot NFT - 2020 NBA Finals Challenge & The Finals Challenge

Related reading: What is a non-fungible token (NFT)?

Table 1: 2020 NBA Finals series summary by the author - Data from NBA Top Shot

Observations

The following are my observations through the perspective of someone who may want to complete this challenge starting now:

  • The cost to purchase a single 2020 NBA Finals pack was $230, but they all sold out within a few minutes of the drop on October 19, 2020. All but two of the Moments in this set have their lowest asking prices above $230. If this pricing holds, then it's safe to assume that individuals got good value when buying these individual packs since they recouped all of what they spent through the value of the Moments that it contained. It's notable that these packs also contained 2 Metallic Gold LE (Rare) Moments in addition to the one Legandary.

  • There are now only 12 complete sets that can be constructed based on NBA Top Shot Marketplace availability. I was not able to find any Moments for sale at opensea.io

  • The lowest cost (excluding transaction fees, etc.) to complete one set has dropped about 7% since yesterday, down to $4,440 at time of writing.

Limitations

  • Any trends may not be meaningful due to the small sample sizes recorded.

  • Although NBA Top Shot is now open to the public, just a little more than 3,300 individuals collect these NFTs based on data on the NBA Top Shot homepage.

My thoughts

That the cost of buying a complete set is lower today compared to buying one yesterday is something that I did not expect. Notably there are now also fewer sets that can be completed from scratch.

It's possible that individuals looking to sell the extra Moments that they own on the Marketplace are starting to worry they may not recoup costs by selling them, simply because they are running out of time.

Based on current pricing, it's not surprising to me that these packs offered good value one week after selling out. It's why I decided it was worthwhile to try and buy a pack since each one contained one Legendary, and two Rare moments for $230. However, it will be interesting to see if individual Legendary Moments from this series will continue to hold their value in the future. At the moment, their value may be directly related to the reward by completing the challenge. So what happens if that reward is no longer offered?

Graphic 1: 2020 NBA Finals -Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Legendary Moment reward for completing challenge - Screen cap from nbatopshot.com

I will try to track the data tomorrow prior to the 2020 NBA Finals challenge closing, to look for more trends.

Lastly, I found a tweet with some statistics that may be of interest:

Tweet from user @lgDoucet

Disclaimer

I do not appraise sports memorabilia professionally, and this is not investment advice. All calculations and analysis are my own. Only spend the money that you can afford to lose.

Thanks for reading, and stay safe!

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Lead image and Graphic 1: 2020 NBA Finals -Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Legendary Moment reward for completing challenge - Screen cap from nbatopshot.com


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Resources:

  1. https://www.nbatopshot.com/

  2. https://www.nbatopshot.com/search?bySets=2ab08547-9f62-4ff4-aff9-1bdc0de8fa3e

  3. https://blog.nbatopshot.com/posts/finals-drop

  4. https://read.cash/@CryptoWordsmith/nba-top-shot-nfts-update-for-oct-23-2020-f78a398e

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Written by   75
1 year ago
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Comments

There are really lots of people into collecting NBA 's NFT.. wow!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

it has opened to the public for only a few weeks. i was part of the beta testing group. the dev team is strong, and i think they have a bright future.

thx for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Amazing article by you my friend

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you! i just posted Part 2 now...Lol.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

I like european basketball, but NBA is too late at night for me

$ 0.00
1 year ago

too bad for the time difference...but NBA has a long history of attracting a lot of very talented euro players! seems like there are more than ever now.

thx for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

wow!! I hope the final will be extremely great like previous games

$ 0.00
1 year ago

i think you misunderstand my friend. these are digital items to buy and to collect.

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1 year ago

I don't follow nba but really nice article.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thanks for the kind words and for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Wonderfully written article dear

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thanks for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Really informative, keep it up

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

you're welcome😊

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Here is my crazy speculation (no advice at all, I'm basically just guessing).

I believe that prices will drop significantly once the deadline for the challenge passed.

However, I believe that prices will rise again once more people become interested in these NFTs. So if I were to buy, I would probably do it rather soon (within a day or two) after the deadline passed.

Again. No advice. Just writing this here, so that I can say "told you so" if I will be right or to never mention it again if I will be wrong. 😂

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Lol...interesting prediction. i think there's a good chance you are at least partially correct. I'll track it and you may find out in a future post!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Perfect. 👍 I'm looking forward to reading your follow-up articles. 👍

$ 0.00
1 year ago

great article my dear freind

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you my friend!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

welcome dear

$ 0.00
1 year ago