Crypto Weather Forecast - #33 "When Meltdown?"

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I am just telling the story about a little noob exploring the Big Bad Crypto-verse and mak... [more]

1 year ago

Topics: Crypto news, Bear Market, Earnings, Scam, Fear, ...

With Genesis halting withdrawals, which means large investors cant withdraw. And Vauld, that already was in trouble, having 10 million stuck on FTX you would expect the trend to go down.

Still, the crypto market seems to remain unimpressed by the FTX fallout. Something that I find hard to believe, is this just the calm before the storm.

It´s probably me, but I enjoy volatility. So I had the best of times last week. And I expected that it would continue throughout this week. Well, nothing was further from the truth.

The whole week BTC has been behaving as an exemplary stablecoin. Sticking perfectly within the bandwidth. Still, this can not be the end of the FTX Meltdown, can it?

So after a lot of lies Scam Bankman Fraud is now possibly telling the truth when he called his past support of more regulation within crypto “just PR.”

He is quoted saying, “f*** regulators,” “they make everything worse,” and “they don’t protect consumers at all.”

Well so far there are very few regulations and indeed they are protecting nobody against scams like FTX.

Will it regulate the crypto-verse?

I guess in time it will. Or at least a large part of it.

Is that a good thing?

That all depends on the angle and perspective you are having and the type of regulations that will be imposed on the crypto market.

Do I wanna be around when cryptos turn stonks?

That is a question I am asking myself a lot lately. I think I will always stay invested a little, but like many of you, I hope I am still early.

I hope that all the time I invested in learning the basic principles ahead of a possible mass adoption will benefit me financially.

If you believe in the comparison to the dot.com era that is very often made, the crypto bubble just got busted. The dot.com bubble crash was the kick-off to the modern internet. Would crypto just like the dot.com companies see mass adoption over the next 10 years?

Or is the comparison off?

Well one thing will be similar, just like that nowadays very few dot.com companies from the first wave are still in existence, so will it be the case for cryptos.

The doubt I have is related to the fact that the crypto bubble burst already twice before and rose again as a Fenix. DotCom never did. DotCom has no cycles, Crypto does, or at least did.

So is this the end of the bear market, the great washout?

It should be, but it isn´t. It would be under normal circumstances but these times are not normal.

I wish I had better news because I am getting struck with bear market boredom but that will not change till after the summer of 2023. That will be when the great recession will be at full strength and as the market is forward-looking that should be the turning point.

Bottom Line

These next 8-10 months will not be pretty if you are in the lucky circumstances to save up some funds don´t spend them all in one buy. As soon as BTC breaks below 15K I will continue to DCA the dip if I can.

It will be a slow and tedious trip down, but I am quite sure my future self will thank me.

But as we have seen very few dot.com companies survive their crash I will DCA safe spreading 70% between ETH and BTC. And use 30% to gamble, on OP, LTO, GLMR and EGLD. Further, I expect that UTK and XRP will make it to the next run, ADA might make it just as BCH. But many of the coins we see today will not see the light of the next bull market.