Crypto Weather Forecast - #24 Prepare yourself for a volatility storm
Howdy Folks,
Guess I won´t have to tell you about this beautiful bloodbath we witnessed on a Sunday Night. That was a weekend dip if I ever saw one.
Now y´all don't act too surprised. You knew this was coming, didn´t you?
If you didn´t you should start reading my forecast rambles, because this dip was visible as pie in the sky.
First, we got the CPI dip, there were your crossroads. It could go either way, but as the market was slightly up of course it went down.
Then people decided to start selling the ETH news as nobody was buying the rumor anymore. Hence ETH dipped already pre-merge, which was kinda too be expected.
And Now What?
On a Sunday night, before the markets opened in the east, crypto started tanking already. I am sure some of you thought I was a big-mouthed baby calling for a $1000 ETH last week. Well, guess what, we are down $200 already and the FED faces did not even start talking.
So where will we be when JP tells us what the FED is planning? They will for sure not be dovish. It´s gonna be another 75 points, or a 100 points rate hike. Which would make it the biggest one in 40 years. Now, there is no real need for the FED to go all in on Wednesday. As I mentioned last time, inflation has been pretty stable for three months in a row.
That does not mean they won't, personally, I think they will do another 75 points just not to be the ones that get blamed for the coming recession. Yes economically things look good enough to do one more big push, but I don´t see it. It´s not needed, a 75 points will do and then a 50 points hike in a month, or two.
Does anyone care what I think?
It looks like nobody cares what I think, because at the current rate the 100-point rate hike this Wednesday is being priced in at quite an alarming speed. This, of course, is all very temporary, and as it looks for now inflation will calm down mid-2023.
Bottom Line Forecast
What does that mean for my actions? Well, I made a nice 20% on selling my XRP yesterday at 0.39 cents and bought them back at 0.344 cents as Ripple filed for a final solution and it seems they are gonna get that. So I will buy a bit more XRP when it drops below 0.33 cents.
High-Level I expect a little bounce today, and a further drop on Tuesday in anticipation of the FEDs decision. A 100-point rate hike with the current low prices will create a nice buying opportunity. The bigger question is how will the market react if it´s only 75 points? And remember don´t buy your ALTs too early, they tend to keep dropping after BTC / ETH stabilize.
That is a hard one, but up or down it will be short-lived. The 75 points are priced in and expected.
Still, the volatility storm we are seeing will not die down till next weekend, so use it wisely.
The Crypto Weather Forecast is my take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.
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Post Scriptum
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