Crypto Weather Forecast - #29 Why I See Another Big BTC Crash Ahead

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Written by

BitcoinBaby

I am just telling the story about a little noob exploring the Big Bad Crypto-verse and mak... [more]

2 years ago

Topics: Crypto, Market, Bitcoin, Forecast, Future, ...

Howdy Folks,

If you were looking for positive crypto news to spark your spirit, you better just leave the space.
The best news we got is that over the summer BTC did not revisit that $17,600 from early June.

Indeed it did not drop. Not even with:

- The upcoming regulation.
- The FED that keeps hiking up that interest hill.
- Russia´s annexation of Ukraine territory and all a worldwide weaponization

As this all creates a strong risk-off sentiment which is even made worse by a very visible global recession ahead.

Is it all priced in already?

No, the market is as fragile as a house of cards, but huge volatility as seen in May and June has not returned, meaning that there is strong support for most of the crypto at the current price.

Because the going is tough, and still BTC keeps going at 19-20K. which overall isn´t that bad.
Now I have been known for calling out this end-of-November dip, or better....this Q4 dip.

Now I do not have a crystal ball, so how do I come up with that Baby BS? I Just check the future chart!

Now do not think I put all my faith in a "simple" chart. As this chart is nothing but estimations based on the past 1,458 days and then repeats those movements again to predict the coming 1,458 days.

Now I used that chart before in May when I thought 20 - 22K might be the bottom.

Back then we were still holding on to that 30K, which seems like ancient history nowadays. But did that chart unfold as predicted?

So this is that same chart 4 months later:

Yes, there is a steeper drop at the end of May, a lower price over a pretty stable summer but both still predict that bottom at the end of Q4. This makes sense based on the mathematical repetitiveness of the BTC behavior.

But does it make sense from a "How is the world doing" point of view?

The regulations could be drafted prior to the year's end and said to be rolled out as of 2023 "to protect the masses from evil" which normally means as much as to control the masses.

Where would we be by the end of November, we would have another rate hike or maybe two we are on 3.25% now and the aim is 4.4% by end of year. Hence October one more 75 points and in November 50 points.

The first escalation of the Ukraine conflict could happen any second now, so why not in a month from now?

And the cracks of the recession were clear, by end of November, it´s a big black hole staring at us standing on the Threshold of 2023.

Bottom Line Forecast

So yes, the current world view ain´t too sunny and it´s gonna be a cold cold Christmas for many people this year driving that narrative of recession, poverty, and fear deep into 2023.