The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Prediction!

This is a really hard election to predict, but this map is my prediction for the final result of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

The biggest question is whether the early/mail-in voting will significantly change things. My map above is basically based only on the polls and the idea that some states will start to revert back to how they normally vote. However, the early voting could change that significantly. If so it is hard to know who it would benefit most, but I would guess it might benefit Democrats because they are more likely to want to vote early. Traditionally Democratic groups, like younger people and racial minorities, are also known to vote less often than older and white people. Democrats may be able to take advantage of early voting to narrow that gap in turnout.

This is a pretty clear, but not overwhelming, victory for Biden. Based on polls it seems like the Coronavirus response and worsening economy have brought Trump down. Biden is also generally more well-liked than Trump, although Trump might be seen as stronger. Both candidates are dogged by concerns about their age. Based on most polls the debates slightly helped Biden. The issue of the Supreme Court has motivated Democratic turnout after Trump replaced a popular liberal judge, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with a Conservative. This has given conservatives a majority on the court for probably at least 25 years, but may cost some Republicans their elections.

There are also a number of states here that could go either way. Of the Trump states: Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa could go for Biden without it being too surprising. However, all of those went for Trump by solid margins in 2016, and I think some voters there will go back to how they normally vote. Of the Biden states: Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan could definitely go for Trump. Arizona and North Carolina are normally Republican, but Biden has been polling well in both for weeks. Wisconsin and Michigan are normally Democratic, and Biden leads in polls in both, but Trump surprised everyone by winning them both in 2016. Pennsylvania is more of a stretch, as polls there show Biden up by higher margins.

This election could go either way, and it's unlikely to be a very one-sided result, but I think Biden is definitely the favorite to win. There is also a question about when we will actually find out the results, since the mail-in ballots could take a long time to count. It may be several days until we know the final results. This may lead to an early Republican lead that turns into a Democratic victory as more of those ballots are counted. Hopefully, whatever the result is, it is clear enough that both sides have to accept it without any violence.

My map was made here: https://www.270towin.com/maps/J0vly feel free to make your own map and share it in the comments!

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