Does statistics help us understand important things or does it just blur the view?

  Here I am, on the fifth day, writing about, in my opinion, the important types of literacy that we will need in the period after COVID -19. We live in a world full of numbers, and do we really know how to read them? today I am writing to you about

Statistical literacy

In a world full of numbers, knowing how to read them has never been more important. From an early age, we learn that truth is in numbers, that they are the same as science, and that if we want to avoid making mistakes with the 'heart' - otherwise a completely blind organ fr any deocisions - it is better to have some options for our options. records.

What we are never told is how various interests have become spectacularly skilled to tear our understanding with numbers, to manipulate us and to seduce us. There are already worn-out sayings like ‘99% of statistics tell only 49% of the truth’, Disraeli that ‘there are lies, disgusting lies and statistics’ or Andrew Lang, very famous in the world of marketing research, that ‘most people use data like a drunk uses a flagpole: more to keep from falling than to light the way '. General numerical literacy is not enough; we also need a specific statistical.

Our days and screens are full of charts, statistics, estimates, averages, figures that stand alone in the windstorm, out of any context, orphans appropriated by anyone who has a current interest in using them as witnesses for their story, their goals and their excuses. Statistics are ammunition for cannon stories, and we are clay pigeons for their cannonade. As with other types of literacy that I have written about so far, it is tragic to what extent this type of illiteracy is part of our civilizational naivety.

Examples are all around us. Our indistinguishability from the ‘average’ from the ‘typical’ creates a completely different picture of reality. If the average salary in one country is 450 euros, while the typical salary (where the most inhabitants are grouped) is around 250, what does that tell us? In mass marketing, averages are one of the most dangerous numbers for decision making, which successful brands understand well. Smart brands work with typical values, they are closer to reality.

Or, understanding the ‘base’: the initial level from which the growth of anything is measured. If the economic growth of one country is a little higher than others in the region, but from a much lower starting point - and it is known that the typical growth from such a starting point should actually be higher - is it a success or just a statistical blur ? The context is always God, regardless of anything else that is claimed to be the King.

Probably the biggest blind spot in this type of literacy, something that is an evolutionary characteristic of the entire human species, is our fundamental inability to deal with probability. Probability is simply not understood by the human brain, especially the statistical definition of chance. Although it is completely probable, statistically, that someone has ten consecutive points from a distance, so that he does not score any long after that, the very beginning of the series drives us to attribute a "happy day" or some other kind of special magic to that player. We fable probability.

It is the other way around, because each of us has better and worse days at work, on the exam, at presentations and similar assessment situations. It is statistically almost certain that some of the students who, by the way, worked hard all year, will have anxiety, poor concentration, weaker physical energy and various other reasons for poor results on the day of the exam - but they will still be punished for it, despite annual effort. This is another thing that makes the various final exams a rough (even cruel) and statistically not very robust means of assessing one's ability.

Our brain does not like disconnection, the feeling of complete coincidence is terrible for us and the brain compensates for that with narratives, stories that ‘with certainty’ suggest to us that something ‘obligatory’ will happen, or not. Especially if we are pushed to do so by current events, such as a pandemic, or cultural customs or manipulators that ‘frame’ the data so that it sounds more favorable. Illiteracy of the phenomenon of probability is one of the main reasons for various superstitions, wrong bets, poorly evaluated candidates in job interviews or investments in various aspects of the social system. Narrative and statistical illiteracy are relatives who live happily together in our heads, to our collective detriment.