How long do you think Maduro can hold his grip on power? Answer to @BetterCallPaul.

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4 years ago

Yesterday I published a heartbreaking article where Venezuelans talk about how bad they had it in 2016. The article has been well received and I appreciate that. In the comments, the user @BetterCallPaul has left the question that I have titled in the article. And here is your answer.

I will try to be concrete in the answer. Also, I understand that this is my opinion based on my experience and knowledge on political issues that are those of a citizen.

I'll start by breaking down your question (How long do you think Maduro can hold his grip on power?) In two parts.

To answer this I must ask myself, what power does Maduro have? It must be understood that Chávez before his death, all power revolved around his figure, also all political communication revolved around him, he did or said, was the current issue in national politics. No one was able to take that leadership away from Chávez.

After his death, all that changed. Chávez, announcing Maduro as his successor and the legion of his followers, trusted and voted for him. Maduro was not able to maintain little order within the Venezuelan State. Corruption and inefficiency are unleashed. His way of doing politics is also lousy and based on blackmail, towards his allies and supporters. A very bad dictator.

This circumstance was very poorly exploited by the Venezuelan political opposition (which at that time maintained the power of the National Assembly). He called on the citizens to leave Maduro, and the Venezuelan youth responded. Streets were blocked throughout Venezuela and there were some pronouncements from the armed forces. It was a very hard time for us, we lost friends and many young people died in vain. The economy fell. Maduro revealed his dictatorial character. However, the political opposition did not give the final thrust, and I seek to negotiate with the Dictator. Maduro took advantage of that time, I have called for elections to a constituent national assembly. An entity above the constitution with which I take power away from the National Assembly. The opposition was completely ridiculous, and demotivated any citizen movement to get out of the dictatorship.

Venezuela deserves to be free, my friend.

From that moment, Maduro's grip on power began. Many of the Venezuelans are afraid to go out to protest and die in vain like the youth in 2014. Also, many of them have left the country in search of better opportunities. Still others simply no longer believe in the leadership of opposition politicians and only seek to survive this tragedy with their families.

However, in the following years, the economic and social crisis weakened the Venezuelan state and the Maduro government. Making its real power only exerted from the armed forces. Venezuelan institutions are riddled with corruption and inefficiency with the consent of Maduro and his accomplices. Venezuela is a dangerous place where there are areas that only control criminals, even from prison. Speculators place on price regardless of the law. Justice does not exist. The health system without supplies. The obsolete electrical system. The broken oil industry. Basic services don't work. And an ultra devalued coin. Maduro leaves Venezuelans helpless who even follow him, he only gives alms in the form of food boxes. It governs a country that they themselves have destroyed. I don't think he will die in peace.

Currently, power in Venezuela is reduced to the control of the armed forces. And it does not guarantee stability in the daily lives of Venezuelans. Furthermore, we have two presidents, two assemblies, two supreme courts. But state control is held by arms.

How long will he maintain power?

2019 started with a new hope for Venezuelans. It has been difficult to believe this new opportunity to get out of these bandits. They even tried to negotiate again on one occasion. Something frowned upon by ordinary Venezuelans. But, the armed forces play a very important role in power for Venezuela. Without them, the opposition is very limited to leave the dictatorship. Venezuelans, once again, take to the streets hoping to start building a new nation.

That's me. At that time we were facing the national guard. That day we approached the army to call the soldiers to fight against the dictatorship, which makes their families starve. That day I had to run a lot.

This hope has been greatly questioned. But, starting in 2020 we have seen all the international support that President Juan Guaido has received from the international community, especially by the President of the United States, Trump.

This places Venezuela in the context of global geopolitics, since, at the moment, Trump supports Guaido, Russia and China support Maduro. Venezuela is a country very rich in natural resources and this is always very important for global powers. Now in times of a pandemic and anticipating an economic recession never before seen, Venezuela takes strategic relevance as an ally.

The United States has been smart in accusing Maduro and his government of drug traffickers and using all the propaganda machinery to denounce them to the world. This neutralizes China and Russia to directly defend Maduro and leave everything to international entities. And we know that the US administration does not care about international entities. Also, economic sanctions put great pressure on the dictatorship and weaken its alliances.

So, in this context I hope that this ordeal that Venezuelans have been going through will end soon. Guaido and Mike Pompeo have issued statements on possible moves to end the dictatorship soon. So we have to wait and not lose hope to move towards a better nation.

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Good article! I hope it will be beneficial to the community at large as it has to do with current affairs.

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