Why cryptocurrency bull market is not over yet ?

Due to the influence of various external factors, the cryptocurrency market has recently begun to turn cold, and many investors are generally pessimistic, believing that the bull market in cryptocurrencies may end, and this view has gradually gained recognition from many people. However, through comparison with the past, i believe that the current bull market is not over, and the second half of the bull market is bound to come. So why is the second half of the bull market not over yet? So, i analyze from multiple angles, mainly for the following reasons:

1. The law of bulls and bears in the investment market

I believe in the laws of market cycles and business cycles. Basically, economic development is mainly maintained by people. That is to say, the economic cycle should also be based on the life of a person. Therefore, we usually talk about a 60-year cycle and an economic crisis once every ten years. The small direction says that every industry such as the stock market, real estate, bulk commodities, food crops, oil and gas, etc. has its own price cycle, and these cycles are not only a separate individual, but also by many other large cycles. For example, the Internet bubble in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008, the cryptocurrency in 2013, the A-share bull market in 2014, the real estate in 2016, the cryptocurrency in 2017, the real estate in 2019 and the cryptocurrency and commodities of this year, etc. Wait, although there is a slight time deviation in the bull-bear cycle market, it will eventually continue to come, sooner or later, but will not be absent. This is the reason why many people think that a 4-year bull market is actually Bitcoin. The halving is caused, but it is still slightly different, either early or late, but it will not be absent.

One of the reasons for this phenomenon is the self-regulation of the market. We take pig raising as an example. When African swine fever appeared, everyone gave up raising pigs. So once swine fever passed, the price of pork rose, so pork market is a very lucrative market. In the end, a large number of farmers raise pigs. As a result, the pigs are delivered for slaughter at the same time. As a result, the market is oversupply and the value of pork has plunge. So far, the price of pork is close to the cost of pig raising. In other words, If the price drops again, it is at a loss.

For other markets, the principle is similar. Of course, there may be factors that influence each other, so that the economic development cycle is not particularly precise, but has a certain error, such as Bitcoin this time. Bull market, if you use the rules of the previous few bull markets to find the opportunity of this bull market, the general direction is correct, but in fact it will still be different, but from the perspective of time, the time of this round of bull market should be It will last until the second half of this year, instead of ending early in the first half of this year. Of course, some people also think that this is the "carving boat for sword" method, but basically the periodic time will not be too different. If it ends now, it will obviously be It's a bit early.

2. Reasons for the bull market in the currency circle

We all know that the main driver of the bull market is capital, that is, money. So there is a question here. Is the increase in market prices caused by the increase in incremental capital, or the increase in market prices caused the admission of incremental capital? From the perspective of the currency circle, in most cases, the increase in internal market prices leads to incremental capital entry. At present, the currency circle is still a market that is not particularly regulated. Many currencies are subject to manipulation such as dealers, that is, after the stock market believes that the conditions are ripe, the collective consensus led to price increases. Once the external conditions for the currency market rise are mature, the main force will conduct large-scale publicity and campaigns, so that outsiders who have received the news and believe in the early days will think that the bull market is coming, and then there will be conceptual hype, so as to attract all kinds of novices to join in. The rise in the market has caused more people to confirm that the bull market is indeed coming.

However, the longer the timeline of this process, the higher the possibility of a big correction in the middle, because after a period of time, everyone makes money, but no one loses money. This is obviously unreasonable. Therefore, an external force Under this situation, there will be relatively large corrections, such as mid-2013, 94 in 2017, 519 in 21, etc. The advantage of this is to cool the market a bit, and clean some people, leaving some people on the scene. Playing inside will form a healthy bull market.

To put it simply, a constant rise will cause many people to keep panicking. If there is a callback, some risks will be eliminated, which will naturally make the bull market healthier. Therefore, we think the current market situation is normal.

3. Market funds and new stories

Although the cryptocurrency market is currently under attack, there are still many innovations in terms of industry technology development, which makes the market still have many new stories, so the bull market will naturally not end so easily now.

This is like in 19 years, we all know that 19 is a bear market, but there is a small bull market cycle in the first half of the year. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the market has new stories to tell (Exchange IEO) , And is there any new story in the current market? Of course there are such topics as layer2, storage and mining, and Polkadot ecological section, which have not officially exploded on a large scale.

In other words, there are still many cryptocurrency sectors that have not seen significant gains so far, but they have better stories that can be presented to the market in the next few months. What effect will they have? That is, the influx of funds into these "low-lying areas" will naturally cause a rebound in the market.

I also mentioned before that every June is a time when market funds are tight, so it is inevitable to usher in a callback. However, once the period of capital shortage is over, it will naturally move closer to those sections with stories, such as Polkadot Ecosystem Projects, L2 DEFI projects, etc., all have a lot of room for development and will naturally make the bull market continue to exist.

Conversely, if it is a bull market now, then for the market, there is still room for continued rise, and there will be some reaction to the increase in the market currency, and second, there will be a certain margin for future bear market declines. The bear market has to fall by at least 70 to 80%, so that investor education in the market can be done well and large funds can flow into other markets. Both the bear market and the bull market need a certain amount of time to recover, so that they can develop healthily.