Recently, due to the continuous increase in the computing power of Chia's entire network and the continuous decline in the price of the currency, many people engaged in chia mining are confused about this project. After all, due to the continuous extension of the return cycle, many people who invest in mining may be confused. How we should look at this project has also become very critical.
Estimation of currency price and computing power
We all know that the computing power of chia has now surpassed the computing power of 24EB, and the growth rate of computing power has begun to gradually flatten out. The new p-disk tool has improved the speed of the p-disk for a while, but it still lacks stamina.
Although the improvement of Chia's P-disk efficiency can increase the growth rate of the entire network's computing power in the short term, the further the later, the impact will naturally be less obvious. The main reason is the impact of currency prices. Until a certain point in time, the whole network computing power no longer increase, that is, to achieve a state of balance, so where is this state of equilibrium?
In fact, we can compare with other POC currencies. At present, besides chia, the POC project with relatively good returns is mass. Mass's income per PB is 53 US dollars, and bhd's income is 35 US dollars per PB. PB’s income is US$120. That is to say, if the computing power remains the same, then there is still half of the room for chia’s earnings (one-half of the current currency price), that is, the lowest currency price is about US$208. This is also the current situation. A reasonable income from other POC mining projects.
So if the currency price wants to increase or the downside is reduced, that is to say, the computing power of the entire network must continue to grow, so as to meet the currency price supporting computing power, otherwise the market will automatically find a new balance point, of course. Power growth will also cause a decrease in daily income. From the current point of view, this is not over yet.
Room for growth in computing power
We believe that the future computing power will inevitably continue to grow, and there is also room for growth. The main reason is that the new mining pool agreement has not yet been made public, so part of the reason is that miners may continue to wait and see.
Although there is still room for growth in computing power in the future, we still need to see that the current market enthusiasm is obviously close to fatigue. The growth rate of 1 EB in the previous day has been reduced. If we want to continue to increase the growth rate of computing power in the future, In fact, it is not a difficult task. It only needs to pull offers from relevant interest groups. However, due to the delay of the new agreement in the early stage, many people who waited for the p-disk after the new agreement appeared may no longer be able to wait. They can only continue with the p-disk and then exhaust the hard disk in their hands. This is the only way at present.
At this time, the official can launch a new agreement in due course when the consumption of the hard disks in everyone's hands is about the same, so that the market can once again use disks for profit, that is, at that time, it is a good way to pull up again. The advantage of this is that the current small miners can be cleaned out, and the other is to maximize the computing power of the entire network, which is also in the best interests of hard disk manufacturers.
If you still have free hard disks in your hand, i don’t recommend waiting for the p-disk after the new agreement appears, but choose to directly p-disk now, so that you can also maximize your own interests. The income after the new agreement appears according to the current situation. The main reason is that the distribution method of the new protocol reduces the amount of coins that can be distributed to everyone.
Chia's influence on filecoin and swarm
Some people think that many miners are now turning their attention to storage mining to new projects such as swarm or crust, but the actual situation may be that the current new mining project is not sure about the gameplay, so there are some people who wait and see. In fact, projects such as filecoin, swarm, and crust will not have much impact on chia's hard disk mining, and it is meaningless to wait and see.
The main reason is actually relatively simple. We all know that chia mining is done by writing a large amount of meaningless data to the hard disk. And let’s look at filecoin, swarm, crust, etc. mining. Their original design is to solve the storage problems in the blockchain, create a decentralized storage network, and provide data for the network, although their forms are different. , But it is certain that the data in the storage space of filecoin, swarm and crust mining are all useful to the network.
It is also because the storage data of projects such as filecoin is useful for the network, so generally their data requires little storage space. For example, we said that the filecoin, now the storage space is only a few E's of data, which is so large. In fact, most of the storage space is still junk data. In other words, the storage of valuable data required by the actual blockchain network is actually very small, so there will not be much room for improvement in the short term. But chia is different. It is precisely because its hard disk data has no practical use, so its demand for hard disks is theoretically unlimited. It is also because of this that after chia has shown a relatively good prospect, its computing power Can quickly increase to more than 25E.
So people who are waiting for swarm with a large number of hard drives in their hands may be a little disappointed, because in the short term, swarm may not consume too many hard drives on the market, and finally a large number of hard drives in the market have to rely on chia.
Finally, for retail investors, the reduction of chia's current computing power is a normal process, because in essence, the income of other POC mining projects is now lower, and there is also a demand for manufacturers to sell hard drives in the market, and the chia team is adding hard disks and computing power, and aims to create a long-term hard disk demand market. At present, in the short term, mining chia may be a thankless thing, especially now that the initial mining period has passed, the market will inevitably have a cooling process for the project. I think this process is also a better period for some capital to intervene in the layout . From a long-term perspective, we believe that if there are no other phenomenon-level POC projects, chia is still a good choice. Of course, from the perspective of input and output ratio, the income of chia mining and graphics card mining may not be much different, and other POC projects have not developed to the scale of chia.
