BCH has quadrupled, but it is still underestimated, why

Please note that BCH has risen tremendously recently. This article analyzes BCH from a cost perspective. It is entirely out of academic research of interest. As of the time of publication, I do not hold BCH. Simultaneously:

This article does not constitute any investment advice, only academic research exchanges.

But first Let me talk about the technical difference between BCH and BTC, because the two are really not like "father and son", like "brothers", most of the technologies are the same:

• Block size, BTC is 1M, BCH is 8M

• The difficulty adjustment algorithm is different. BTC is stable at 10 minutes and a block is produced. BCH is EDA, which is dynamically adjusted (the source of the hashrate crit)

• BCH supports replay attack protection
  

Because BCH launched a hashrate crit against BTC. In reality, miners are all profit-seeking, and only a few can persist in their feelings. So BTC or BCH will mine whichever has the highest profit. The profit is related to the difficulty. BCH's EDA adjustment algorithm has one thing: as long as there is no block for 12 hours, the difficulty value will drop dramatically. In this way, the computing power is basically switched between BTC and BCH (note that the mining machines of BTC and BCH are the same).

If some miners have ulterior motives, use this feature to critically attack BTC and switch back and forth to get greater benefits, it is very feasible. At present, when the efficiency of official BCH mining is higher, as shown below:

Therefore, in the following two figures, without much explanation, you will find that the distribution of computing power has changed drastically recently.

BCH attracts most of the computing power, so where is the top of BCH? How to estimate it? Let's roughly compare BCH and BTC, the first column is BTC.

The last is BCH. Note that this is only a partial statistics and cannot be said to be accurate. So, we have the following estimates

According to the observation related BTC calculation power adjustment, nearly half of the BTC calculation power will be transferred to BCH, and the estimate is as follows:

Estimated BCH network computing power is 3.9EH, and 9000 coins
are output every day : 14/39000000 9000 = 0.0032307692307692 The number of coins per day for an s9
takes into account electricity costs (1.4 0.43 * 24 = 14 yuan), maintenance costs (tentatively set to 0), and s9 Depreciation expense (11500 / 800 = 14.375)
28.375/0.0032307692307692 = 8782.738095238179 The cost of BCH

If you consider other things, it is around 11,000, so BCH should be at least 11,000

At present, the distribution of BCH computing power is still changing rapidly. Everyone can pay attention to it in real time, and miners are switching quickly. If controlling 80% of the BTC computing power, 50% will switch to BCH (maybe it is already a fact), then:

This round of BCH is at least 20,000.

The above are all academic studies, based on a hypothetical premise:

Bitcoin is a commodity.

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