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Joe Biden won! What's next?

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Written by   12
3 months ago
Topics: 2020, News, Economics, Money, Blog, ...

What does Biden's victory mean to the rest of the world?

In Donald Trump's four-year term, America's relationship with the world has changed profoundly. Heavily watching the news in the last couple of days, I will present below some of my findings: how the world reacted to Biden's victory.

China

Joe Biden's victory offers another challenge for the Chinese system. One might think that Beijing would be happy to see Donald Trump gone - he hit the Chinese with a trade war, imposed a series of sanctions and blamed them for the coronavirus pandemic. But the Chinese leadership may now secretly feel disappointed, not because it loves Mr. Trump, but because, divisive at home and isolationist abroad, Trump has offered Beijing the very embodiment of the decline of US power. China could, of course, try to find an advantage in Joe Biden's desire to seek cooperation on major issues, such as climate change. But he also promised to try to repair America's alliances, which could prove far more effective than Trump's approach in curbing China's superpower ambitions.

Russia

A more predictable administration could be a ray of hope for Russia. The Kremlin did not miss Joe Biden's recent statement, which he called Russia's "greatest threat" to America. Putin fears that the Biden presidency will mean more pressure and more sanctions from Washington, and may even want revenge for Russia's alleged intervention in the 2016 elections. However, Russian commentators predict that a Biden administration will at least be more predictable than the Trump team and a nuclear deal could be reached more easily, with the remaining one expiring in February next year. Moscow will therefore want to move beyond the Trump era and try to build a working relationship with the White House.

UK

The "special relationship" between the US and Britain could suffer a demotion, because Joe Biden and Boris Johnson are not natural allies. In 2016, when Donald Trump won the White House and the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, both Joe Biden and Barack Obama made no secret that they would have preferred another outcome of the Brexit referendum. Mr Biden recently said he would not allow peace in Northern Ireland to become a "victim of Brexit", saying any future US-UK trade deal would be conditional on compliance with the Good Friday Agreement. Biden seems to agree that the British Prime Minister is a "physical and emotional clone" of Donald Trump. So it is possible that Joe Biden was initially more eager to talk to Brussels, Berlin or Paris than to London.

Germany hopes for a return to the key alliance with the United States once Donald Trump is gone. Only 10 percent of Germans trust President Trump's foreign policy, according to the Pew Research Center, which is more unpopular in Germany than in any other country surveyed, including Russia and China. President Trump is accused of undermining the economic freedom on which Germany is economically based. Its trade war with China has shaken German exporters, and the bad relationship between Trump and Angela Merkel is notorious. German politicians and voters were shocked by his abrasive style, unconventional approach to the facts and his frequent attacks on the German car industry. Despite this, the United States has remained Germany's largest trading partner, and the transatlantic relationship is essential for European security. But the major differences in political vision between Washington and Berlin will not go away under Biden's presidency, but Berlin is looking forward to working with a president who appreciates multilateral cooperation.

North Korea

Kim Jong-un will now make careful calculations before trying to provoke the new American president. President Kim probably would have preferred four more years of Donald Trump, given that the pictures of the meeting of the two entered the history books, but in reality Trump got very little concrete things from Kim - North Korea continued to build its nuclear arsenal and the US continued to impose strict sanctions. Instead, Joe Biden has asked North Korea to show that it is willing to give up its nuclear weapons program before any contact with Kim Jong-Un. Many analysts believe that if Mr Biden's team does not initiate talks with Pyongyang very soon, the days of "fire and rage" may return, as Kim may want to draw Washington's attention to a few long-range missile tests, but without raising tensions to the point where Biden would impose even more sanctions. South Korea wants to end the 70-year war on the Korean peninsula and praised Trump for having the "courage" to meet with Kim. The South will follow closely any sign that Biden is willing to do the same.

Iran

Biden's victory could bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, but this will not be easy. In the weeks leading up to the US election, President Trump said that once re-elected, the first phone call he would receive would be from Iranian leaders, who would ask to negotiate. Negotiating with the Trump administration would have been impossible for Iran, it would have been too humiliating. Under President Trump, US sanctions and a policy of maximum pressure have allowed Iran to collapse on the brink of economic collapse. Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, worse, ordered the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, a close friend of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and revenge for that act was delayed only by the outbreak of the pandemic. The election of Joe Biden makes it much easier to enter into negotiations with an American administration for Iran. President-elect Biden has said he wants to use diplomacy and return to the nuclear deal with Iran. But Trump's actions have radicalized opinions and a desire for revenge in Iran, and resumption of negotiations will not be easy. The top leader said the US election would have no effect on Tehran's policies, but millions of Iranians watched the US election in hopes that a Biden victory would bring fewer sanctions to their country.

The Middle East

There are expectations of a reset of many of Donald Trump's policies in the Middle East. President Trump has overfed the two poles in the Middle East (Israel and Saudi Arabia) to isolate Iran. Reducing "maximum pressure" on Iran terrifies Israel and the Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For example, an Israeli minister said Biden's likely victory would lead to "a violent Israeli-Iranian confrontation, because we will be forced to act". The result also dramatically changes the US approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Biden will not be able to make a "complete return" after America moved the embassy to Jerusalem, even if its rhetoric will return to the traditional understanding of a "two-state solution." The chances of making significant progress in the dying Israeli-Palestinian peace process appear slim.

India

Kamala Harris's roots are a source of pride in India, but President Modi may have a colder relationship with Joe Biden. India has long been an important partner for the US and the general direction is unlikely to change under Biden's presidency. The most populous nation in South Asia will remain a key ally in America's strategy to reduce China's rise and fight global terrorism.

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Written by   12
3 months ago
Topics: 2020, News, Economics, Money, Blog, ...
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Comments

this is a great update! always look forward to your posts!

$ 0.00
3 months ago

What do you think about Biden cabinet approach on cryptocurrency?

$ 0.00
3 months ago

Hmmm I don't know too much about such a topic.

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3 months ago

Make America great again?

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3 months ago

Maybe...

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3 months ago

maybe....:)

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3 months ago