WARNING! Bitcoin’s Price Is About To CRASH To $8,000!

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Avatar for Pantera
2 years ago

A New, Severe Market Collapse Is Imminent

Crypto investors appeared confident that Bitcoin would reach $100k as the euphoria stage reached its climax about one year ago.

The collapse of the Terra Luna scheme and its UST stablecoin, followed by a run on crypto custodians and crypto-VCs, was a disaster waiting to happen. As Bitcoin dropped significantly (below $20,000), it invalidated all bullish predictions and officially entered a new bust cycle.

An event that has never happened before is transpiring, with Bitcoin’s price dropping below its 2017 ATH and entering the range of its previous cycle.
Is $20k the bottom (as many analysts suggest), or is there more pain for Bitcoiners?

History tends to repeat itself, and it seems it suggests that perhaps there is a lot more down before prices recover.

A historic chart predicts the worst possible scenario for Bitcoin ($BTC) for the remaining 5 months of 2022.

BTC At $8147 by December 2022

Source

In 2017, Bitcoin’s parabolic trajectory found a peak at $20,000. Four and a half years ago, this was the end of the boom cycle for Bitcoin, and a lengthy bear market had begun by the beginning of 2018.

Yet, during that bear market (2018–2019), as with the previous one in 2014–2015, Bitcoin found a bottom at a price multiple times higher than its previous ATH.

During the current bearish cycle, BTC dropped significantly lower, entered the range of the previous 2017 cycle, reaching as low as $17600, and it seems the worst is not over yet.

According to most chart predictions, and considering the Bitcoin boom and bust cycles, there is probably another year of a bear market left before Bitcoin (BTC) and the entire crypto market recover.

While, usually, the prices tend to bounce as trading takes place, according to this chart, perhaps there won’t even be any bounce, but BTC will directly plunge to $8,150 in December 2022.

The cycle-repeat chart for Bitcoin (BTC) explains how the price will proceed if it moves in a similar course to the previous bear cycle. It predicts the price action if BTC perfectly repeats the 2018–2019 bearish cycle.

Source

BTC’s price can capitulate and descend to $8,000 by December (this year), and it seems there is no positive indicator on the horizon to contain the downfall.

Significance

(Mining equipment thrown in the street, 2018, source: Dovey Wan, Twitter)

Depending on their location, miners slowly shut down hardware models (S17 ASICs), which are unprofitable at the current BTC price to operate.

The hashrate that powers and secures the BTC network will drop as miners will shut down more machinery and dump their reserves in the market to pay for their liabilities. Loans ($4 Billion backed by mining rigs that quickly lose their value (Bloombergwill be a burden for the profitable operations of weaker miners.

Considering the scenario of a Bitcoin death spiral, a drop to $8,000 will not generate such an event as the most efficient miners will still be able to mine for a profit. Such an event would demand an abrupt price decline, perhaps at a level of 90% during the beginning of a 2016 block epoch.

However, we can’t guess what might happen if the price drops significantly lower than $8,000.

The next difficulty will drop by approximately 4% as S17 ASICs are unprofitable, with BTC at $20,000.

Source

Certainly, a severe decline in Bitcoin’s price will recreate historic events we’ve observed in the past:

  • miners filing for bankruptcy,

  • hardware (ASICs) thrown out of their facilities and sold for scrap,

  • blocktime will increase significantly (hours for each block) until difficulty readjusts to a lower number.

We’ve already experienced all these events before, and usually, they present a bottom signal, an indicator experienced traders realize as “blood in the street”.

Considering the risk and reward for a speculative asset such as Bitcoin (BTC), the smart money will slowly buy this dip which they waited for so long.

Certain issues could stop Bitcoin (BTC) from entering a new bullish cycle.

One is Tether, which has to worry about the new EU stablecoin compliance regulations (source).

Moreover, we should expect fierce competition between CBDCs and cryptocurrencies in the coming years.

Although, it could just be one-sided since governments can simply ban cryptocurrencies as a method to support their centralized version of digital cash and monopolize digital payments.

While regional regulations will not present an immediate threat to the viability of decentralized cryptocurrencies (the networks will always keep running), the magnitude of economies like the US and EU is essential when considering cryptocurrencies under the prism of investing.

Extreme regulations or even a blanket ban on crypto payments or mining are threats to the sustainability of the current prices and could prevent a new “bull run” after the fourth Bitcoin (BTC) halving.

The Worst Is Not Over

Source

Due to the cryptocurrency exchange mechanisms, the price of BTC is influencing the rest of the market. The BTC trades and the trading algorithms used by “whales” have tethered every cryptocurrency asset to the price action and volatility of BTC, with a few differences between each.

While examining the historic price action of cryptocurrencies, we can’t ignore the boom and bust cycles generated by the Bitcoin (BTC) halvings. There have been three (major) bullish cycles, and we are currently experiencing the third bearish one.

History is not repeated precisely but usually with minor (or substantial) differences. This market is programmed to operate like that due to the halving events of its (current) driving force, Bitcoin (BTC), thus investors should act according to the boom and bust criteria.

speculatively exploit it undertaking risks when the signs are predominantly deceiving.

This article covers a possible price scenario for Bitcoin, but the future is uncertain, and price predictions are never accurate. We establish our predictions on a vision of a possible future, but multiple more variables contribute to price volatility in the crypto markets.

  • Cover Photo by “0fjd125gk87” on Pixabay and “xresch” on Pixabay (modified)

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2 years ago

Comments

The scary part is, when BTC drops, every crypto drops too..It's scary to think what will happen to BCH price... I guess I have to be deligent and stick to my plan to get the most out of my earnings here, while trying to save some for the future.

$ 0.05
2 years ago

From the look of thing, if you look at the downward slope you will be discourage. So I only store for future rise.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Thanks for the innfornation

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Where would you place BCH's price in this scenario? $25 - $40 range? I'd write twice as many articles here once that happens ;)

I learnt about the dynamic difficulty adjustment from you (thanks), obviously I'm aware of the increased block size. What other miner specific differences exist between BTC and BCH?

$ 0.05
2 years ago

BCH has 0-conf which used to be a Bitcoin feature until the inclusion of RBF (replace-by-fee). Bitcoin Cash removed RBF and increased the blocks in the 2017 fork. There are still a few BTC wallets that offer 0-conf (they are RBF free or something like that). However, nobody uses BTC with 0-conf (nobody accepts without several block confirmations) as after RBF too many scammers appeared with double spending techniques. Bitcoin Cash has solved this since the mempool (where the miners select the transactions to include in the block) is always emptied (all transactions are selected on each block) thus making a double spend highly unlikely. Full BCH blocks were tested successfully, I think in 2018. Currently, at 32MB blocksize it is highly unlikely a double spend to occur.

Essentially RBF was one of the steps that delayed BTC adoption together though with the small block capacity (blocksize). BCH has solved everything by increasing the block-size, without losing in decentralization as some suggest since Moore's Law is valid (technology like data storage and internet speed advanced remarkably in the last 10 years. Bitcoin demanded a raise in the block size to match the technological advancement and reach more people, becoming money used by everyone as its direction used to be. From my point of view, Bitcoin Cash covers everything I was expecting from Bitcoin (which failed me in 2017). I've been on many disappointing platforms and communities before I joined. At least this one is trying to build something that works as expected.

$ 0.10
2 years ago

Thanks for this nugget of knowledge Pantera.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

I also don't look at charts much now, just keep accumulating and saving up for when it recovers

$ 0.02
2 years ago

If it happens, then BCH to 45?

$ 0.02
2 years ago

Hey! Don't take this as financial advice! Anything can happen. I don't want to scare you or anyone. This is a chart that resembles the previous bear market and explains the price action if price follows the exact same pattern. It goes higher later and by 2025 it puts BTC at $100k. There will be a new bull run, for this I'm confident, unless everyone bans crypto. We can never be certain about the top or the bottom, though.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

I have hopes it won't but it is a possibility with all the algorithms in this market.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

While I have stopped looking at charts for the mere reason of preserving my sanity, lol. The devaluation to $8K could be a welcome change and can restore value to utility based technologies and purged the hype base projects.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

The bear market is certainly not over. Too much garbage is valuated at billions in market cap while I'm surprised they even exist.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Same, all these ElonDoge, Mars coin and Floki tokens needs to go if Crypto is to be taken seriously. Hopefully like LUNA other dumb project will also die out in this Crypto winter and only the strongest coins and tokens will survive.

$ 0.00
2 years ago