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The first two chapters are not so important but just a rant. You can skip and move to the main part here or even better skip this too and go to the good part by clicking this link.
A small (unnecessary) introduction.
My journey with cryptocurrencies started one day in March 2017.
The first time I've read about Bitcoin was very earlier, during the 2013-2014 rise to the mainstream. I didn't know what it was and didn't look, with most of my time consumed in my work, and having been told this was some online scam as those phishing emails by the famous Nigerian prince.
Having been consumed for a few months in this world, I remember first of all Bitcoin made new ATH and it reached the price of gold. It didn't matter a lot, it was just in the news, and we know that this is no comparison between the two assets.
There hasn't been a day since that point I have not been part of the crypto world. While I had no idea what was happening, I knew nothing about Bitcoin and the Bitcoin Cash fork appeared in August 2017. I was only paying attention to prices and trying to absorb as much information as possible about the cryptocurrency market.
My sources for the first five months until the August 17' fork were just Coinmarketcap, Coindesk, Bitcointalk, and some Google searches. But for a whole year, I was only interested in trading and charts. I wanted a long-term plan for Bitcoin and didn't care a lot about the technical part.
Research required time and as a beginner, the dangers were too many. The Ripple giveaway scams with the fake airdrops were active since those days. A mistake was not far and with all the lucrative airdrops and giveaways going on, it wasn't very hard for scammers to steal funds from a naive beginner investor like me.
It was luck and control of my feelings that helped me not to get scammed and lose my funds. However, many fell for these traps. The effect of scams on the market is huge and the more the scammers earn, means less money for the market to work properly. I made it my purpose to report scams wherever I met them and notify others. We had Bitconnect back then and other Ponzi schemes. Sadly a few individuals couldn't do much against these huge scams and while many of us were trying, the voices in chatrooms, Twitter, and other media were covered by hundreds of shills.
Anyway, the reason for this post is that like everyone else that entered the crypto sphere during 2017, we had no idea what Bitcoin Cash was about. It took me a year to understand and the main reason
When I joined Bitcoin there was a lot of misinformation. It took time to learn that Bitcoin wasn't scaling, it was slow and transactions required often very high fees.
I kept believing in Bitcoin as the narratives were strong. All the videos I've watched until that point and all the content I've read, it was about Bitcoin taking over the dollar and other fiat currencies.
I remember the day when Roger Ver announced his support on Bitcoin Cash and explained his reasons. Until that day I didn't even know Roger Ver.
But it came during a time I was knees dip in BTC and holding more than I could afford. I lost big money then, and because I was a beginner, I made mistakes. I panic sold at very low prices and made many mistakes. It was huge gambling what I was doing, but with time I managed to understand the market better.
It took me half a year to understand what Ver was talking about and why BTC wasn't going to become P2P electronic cash for the world.
Four years ago I created my Steemit account. I didn't post there regularly and I was just exploring this platform, and I stopped posting in 2018. It was unsuccessful as it failed to attract readers and I was basically testing the waters there.
I still have access to this Steemit account, and I just logged in again after two years.
The article here was one of my last posts on Steemit, and at a time that I was still believing in Bitcoin as P2P electronic cash. I was always questioning the "store of value" argument, which basically didn't mean anything to me.
It is mostly about the price action, but also gives my concerns and the belief I had that Bitcoin was going to be developed and perhaps with the LN it could reach mass adoption levels.
The rest of my Steemit posts are worthless and a testing phase for me. This one is based on the Trololo chart and gives a good idea of why I created it. My research for the first year in crypto was only based on charts and almost nothing else. I knew the terms and what everything meant but I didn't know a lot about the BTC community, Blockstream, and their purpose for Bitcoin.
I posted this first on Reddit, and reposted it on Steemit, without knowing this was going to be considered plagiarism as this was my content and I had given all links on Reddit after reposting on Steemit. I even had a comment on both platforms stating this was my original content, however, a Steemit bot didn't understand this part.
This is no excuse, as this was always my content, which I wanted to have on Steemit for one reason. I wanted this permanently recorded on an immutable blockchain. I made it on Reddit first, but Reddit is a centralized forum that can anytime just go out of business.
Days later I deleted the Reddit post, contacted the admin of this bot, but the replies were that this guy didn't care at all to fix anything and just to contact him on Discord. I have never used Steemit since then, as I found no reason since this false accusation. I was informed later that these bots are not active on Steemit anymore, but this negative experience made me not want to use them again. I may start a Pantera account there, but still, I don't know if it will be worth my time.
I have access to both these Steemit and Reddit accounts as they are mine, I haven't posted in any of them for years, and I will only use them in case someone wants to confirm.
Two year bear market is probable at this point, especially if the strong 6k support breaks. Even if it takes 2 years we are already 1/4th of the way. We might go down a lot , like 4k or 2k. But i think most of the people involved already know this is going up again long term.
- Me, three years ago
I just read this again after a conversation with @CryptoMax about Steemit and I was spot on about the BTC chances of rising.
I read my post again and I was surprised at the accuracy of this prediction. Bitcoin was at $6k at that time and did drop to my buying range. It dropped exactly where I predicted at $3,000.
What we need in order to recover, is make bitcoin fast and cheap once again. We need to be able to sent 10 bucks in a few minutes maximum and spent nothing for fees. Bitcoin devs are working for this and i've already seen breakthrough, but they still need time.
- Me, three years ago
I didn't know a lot about the scaling debate and Bitcoin Cash at that point. Three years ago I was a blind newbie that supported the BTC narrative, but I always knew how a decentralized digital currency was supposed to be.
I was one year in crypto and thought that BTC devs were supporting the notion of P2P electronic cash. I was so wrong. At that point in 2018, I read more and became more interested in Bitcoin Cash.
So I'm basically talking really long term on this post. What i see comes mainly from the daily and weekly charts. We have the same bear market that bitcoin had 3 times before, losing 80% from top as of now, ready to lose 90% once again. Last time it took one and a half year to secure the bottom. It was safe to buy at around 200$. Chart has almost no deviations from 2014.
Sadly I didn't post the technical analysis of the weekly chart I made back then, but I explain the findings in words.
So I actually give 3 years for 100K Bitcoin.
Bitcoin reached 65K. Not so accurate yet, but still there is time.
So it's 6.5k now, perhaps we dive to 4k-2k (there is no probability going lower)...
Personally i don't think now is time to either buy or sell. If you bought just hold it. If you sold, wait for it. Doesn't really matter as you will actually find a spot to enter and then you can hodl and wait for 2 years.
- Me, three years ago
I mean seriously, I have some financial knowledge, I'm not any expert trader, but nailed it in this article. And I was always considering this comment bot that instead of following the accuracy of this financial advice, it just spammed my post with nonsense.
So if all goes as planned in July 2021, i will post an "I told you so" reply on this post. (we might even reach 200k$/BTC who knows).
- Me, three years ago
My main purchase was in September 2017, right at the China ban dip. Price was falling rapidly, but I have had my analysis done and I knew it was a buying the dip moment which I was waiting for since June of that year. In between, I was just holding some small amounts bought applying DCA between March and May 2017.
This chart was accurate in 2017 and predicted $10,000 by just a couple of days off, and for 2021 it predicts $100,000 to be reached by mid-July.
I am following many charts, however, this one, from trolololo posted on bitcointalk in 2014, has been consistent in its predictions for many years. I gave this prediction about July 2021 based 50% on this chart and another 50% on my charts and the halving effect. I think that in 2018 S2F wasn't even available and my charts were giving a similar movement. However, I don't see the concept behind the S2F model being accurate, it is based on correct data but having wrong assumptions.
Everything that is supported by lies will not last.
This is the reason BTC is having these wild market swings and enters from bullish to bearish. It turns bearish every time it is proven it is not working. What I wanted was a change from the corrupt banking system and not a replacement with something worse. A decentralized currency should not come with the cost of $20 per transaction as this won't be a currency that can be used by everyone but only a few.
I did that Bitcoin trade, I bought at 4k, sold in 2019, and bought BTC again in the big dip in 2020 and traded some more swings. I do not hold and currently, I have no BTC at all.
I have managed to move to Bitcoin Cash after finally understanding that BTC wasn't going to be what I expected. Bitcoin Cash is the digital money I was hoping for, P2P electronic cash for the world.
I don't know if the prediction for 200k BTC will come true, and right now I honestly don't care. The facts were there and maybe it will be the last time BTC will have a bullish cycle. The Trololo chart points to end at 2024 but doesn't give any other prediction. It can all end this year for Bitcoin and right now I can easily predict that we have something better than BTC.