How to make a weather forecast

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Written by

Profi Basketball

3 years ago

If the weather is changeable and the showers are local, it is impossible to find out exactly where the "cloud break" will take place until the last minute and looking at the radar image.

How many times have you looked at the weather forecast and said “they missed again”. Or: "Yesterday it was written that it will be the sun, and today it will be raining ?!". However, we regularly read the forecast and if we do it properly, the weather will hardly surprise us.

About how forecasts are made and how we should interpret them, but also how much forecasters can make mistakes

The most accurate possible weather forecast is issued for the next day. In 90 to 95 percent of cases, it materializes.

However, it applies to the entire territory of a city or area, and if the weather is changeable and the showers are local, it is impossible to find out exactly where the "cloudburst" will occur until the last minutes and looking at the radar image.

Powerful computers and mathematics are most responsible for the forecast, so there are various applications on the Internet that we can only partially rely on.

We can get the real picture only when the meteorologist "pulls" the current situation through a mathematical model. And it is important to know the local characteristics that even a computer cannot take into account.

- Short-term weather forecasts are made by calculation, step by step, using mathematical-physical numerical models and powerful computers, where the initial conditions for the models are determined by measurement and observation at meteorological stations. Weather forecasts are calculated daily, based on the most recent measured data from which to start, in order to make new corrections, or confirmations, of previous forecasts, which is especially important in changing weather conditions such as last May. years. A general forecast is issued to the public, agreed on the basis of a whole ensemble of numerical models and logical and critical control of weather forecasters, which can be supplemented with more precise information for a locality at the request of the user.

But deviations are possible and meteorologists are monitoring them.

- The most expected deviations from the forecasted weather situation are possible in markedly changing weather conditions, in specific processes related to cyclones, and when it comes to local phenomena. In the summer half of the year, when showers (local) precipitation predominate, only the area in which there are conditions for their development can be forecast. The exact location and exact time of the appearance of clouds, which cause local showers and thunderstorms, can be specified when a cloud of this type is observed by meteorological radars or satellites. Only then, by tracking, from minute to minute, can the trajectory of these clouds be determined and the intensity of occurrences on that trajectory assessed. Such thunderclouds can form in a short time interval, usually in a time interval of 5-10 minutes.

This is the situation when you ride a city bus through a terrible downpour, and when you come to your area, you notice that there were no raindrops. You tell the housemates about the big downpour, and they shake their heads, "Nothing was falling here ..."

And when it comes to cyclones, jet streams in the upper parts of the atmosphere can slow down or change their movement.

- If the dimensions of the cyclone are of the order of about 1,000 km, then the deviation from the expected position by only 50-100 kilometers, which is a real event in certain synoptic situations, may result in a shift of the precipitation zone by the same order of magnitude. This, on the example of Serbia, can mean moving the precipitation zone from one region to another and seemingly unexpected changes in weather conditions.

It is another matter when continuous long-term precipitation is forecast in autumn, winter or spring because then it is most likely that it will happen exactly where it is forecast.

HOW TO KNOW WHERE THE SHOWER WILL BE

The only way to find out for a day when unstable weather is forecast whether the cloud will bypass us or not is the current data that we can find on the RHMZ website. Ultimately, there is a phone number that anyone can call.

Verification of the realization of the RHMZ forecast for the next day showed that it is realized in 90-95 percent of cases. The percentage of realization for the following days is slowly decreasing. These are real possibilities for forecasting the weather everywhere in the world, even in Serbia. And it is normal to make adjustments to the forecast, based on the most recent data used for the calculation

A statistical-analog method is used to make long-term forecasts for 30 days in advance. The analogy refers to an earlier similar synoptic situation. Long-term forecasting is a great challenge and practice has shown that over time, reliability decreases, and it is a forecast of an orientational nature. Citizens should not stick strictly to a date when it comes to such forecasts, but look at the basic character of the weather

@DzonyMerlin94