Not medical, legal, or any other advice - reported for information only.
The UK government publishes "COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports" at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports. Independent COVID data analysts have been keeping an eye on these reports because the UK achieved a high compliance rates relatively early in the global vaccination campaign. Therefore, any issues emerging in Britain could foreshadow similar trends elsewhere. And based on the currently posted reports from calendar weeks 39 to 41, covering COVID cases, emergency room visits and deaths in England from weeks 35 to 40 (September to early October), we could indeed be in for a rude awakening from hopes that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may be over soon.
While politicians and the media here in Canada, in the US, and around the world continue to use the "pandemic of the unvaccinated" to scare the vaccine-hesitant into compliance, the data from England speak a different language. The latest report ranges from September 13 to October 10, 2021. In this period, 49.5% of COVID "cases" (better described as positive tests) were indeed unvaccinated while 38.4% were fully vaccinated (two doses). The difference to 100% includes those who are between doses or within 14 days of their second dose.
During the reporting period, the proportion of fully vaccinated people only marginally increased from 65% to 66% and the unvaccinated group decreased only slightly from 29% to 28% of Britons (based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). Without consideration of testing requirements (which likely affect unvaccinated people much more frequently than vaccinated), one could indeed speak of a pandemic of the unvaccinated, except that COVID "cases" do not mean much in terms of individual health (many "cases" are perfectly healthy despite bits of virus found in their bodies).
In terms of community health, i.e. virus transmission, close to 30% of the population contribute close to 50% of cases while another two-thirds of the population only contribute less than 40%. Nevertheless, this discrepancy at the expense of the unvaccinated may or may not have an impact on transmission. Since the vaccines prevent symptomatic COVID, I imagine that an infected vaccinated person might be more likely to go to school or work than an infected unvaccinated person. If a vaccinated person was on average three times more likely to ignore their infection, the impact on transmission of the two groups would be more than equalized!
So far, we only looked at the first set of bars (cases) in the first chart. Moving over to ER visits, we notice that there are more fully vaccinated (58.9%) than unvaccinated (35.8%) patients. Compared with the vaccination rates (65-66% vs 29-28%), the ER visits are still slightly skewed towards unvaccinated people, but the difference to population-wide vaccination status is small.
When we look at England's September and early October deaths from or with COVID-19, the proportions shift significantly. As many as 76.1% of deaths were fully vaccinated while only 19.9% were unvaccinated. This differential raises important questions about the vaccines' protection from severe COVID and fatal outcomes.
It is important to note that none of these statistics can be taken at face value. As mentioned above, cases can be largely influenced by testing requirements and protocols. The inclusion of all ER patients and deaths within 28 days of a positive test in the COVID counts can lead to over-counting (and thus fear-mongering). Conversely, an emerging pandemic of the vaccinated in England's hospitals might be exaggerated by factors such as varying vaccination rates in different age groups (higher rates in older ages who are more likely to need emergency care and pass away) and varying vaccination timelines by age group (earlier vaccines in the elderly now loosing their protective effect).
To examine the possible pandemic of the vaccinated one step further, we can look at the recent dynamics in the data. From the last three reports, it appears that the cases among fully vaccinated are fluctuating while the ER visits and deaths are indeed continuously growing. This trend is problematic, since the UK and other countries with similar pandemic responses around the northern hemisphere are approaching the annual flu season. We may soon realize that the segregation of unvaccinated residents has no scientific or practical basis and that we should instead focus on at-home treatment options for COVID-19 and return to conventional protections for our most vulnerable people.
Interesting article. I just looked a little bit in the data. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report – week 41 page 15, for example. Table 4. COVID-19 deaths (a) within 28 days and (b) within 60 days of positive specimen or with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 37 and week 40 2021 Table a Death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test by date of death between week 37 and week 40 2021
When I compare "Rates among persons vaccinated with 2 doses per 100,000" with the non-vaccinated group (also per 100,000) in almost every age group (except for under 18, which is both 0) death rates are significantly higher in the non-vaccinated group. While your graph is showing that more than 71 % of the death within 28 days were fully vaccinated? I don't know if this is really working out. Seems a bit weird, at least according to my observations.