From Syria to Libya, from Greece to Armenia, from Assad to Kurdish rebels — Turkish President Erdogan is at war with all: AFP
The more the enemy, the more dignity, Turkey is putting this old German proverb into practice. Its enmity with all its neighbors except Iran and Azerbaijan. At one time, the United States was determined to wage war on many fronts together. Although the Turkish Sultan's ambitions did not reach that stage, the signs are the same.
Turkish AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan first came to power in 2003 — Rajab Tayyab Ridwan in Arabic. In his 16 years in power, he has changed the meaning of an old Russian joke. One rural Jewish youth is going to war. As she bids farewell to her son, the mother puts her hand on his head and says, ‘Dad, don’t work too hard. I will kill the turkeys one by one and kill them. '
Such was the image of Turkey in Europe after its defeat in World War I. That rural old woman also knew that. Dalvat thought of killing the decaying Ottoman army. So he says, "I will kill the turkeys one by one and kill them." The boy then says to his mother, ‘But if the Turks kill me?’ The mother wonders, ‘Why would they kill you, what harm did you do to them?’ This was the average European mentality at the time.
But who did not harm Turkey? After the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1920, the empire was divided. The agreement to finalize these divisions is called the Lausanne Agreement. The 1922 treaty recognized northern Anatolia in the Ottoman Empire as an independent Turkish state, but forced Atatুrk's Turkey to withdraw from the Arab, Persian, Greek, and Balkan regions. Thus ended the Turkish Caliphate and the Ottoman Empire. France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Greece, Romania together force Turkey to accept it. The work was mediated by Lord Curzon, the former British Crown Prince of India, who was then the British Foreign Secretary. The national legend of ‘kill and kill a turkey’ was born in the history of that defeat.
Turkey is directly on the side of Azerbaijan in the fresh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As a result, another new frontline was created in front of Turkey: the Caucasus. Earlier, the conflict with Greece and Greco-Cyprus on the shores of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea had almost reached the stage of military conflict, but gunpowder and barrels were still hot. In Syria and Iraq, Turkey is sometimes fighting against Assad's forces and sometimes against Kurdish forces. In Libya, they have stopped the forces of French and Russian-backed rebel General Haftar.
After the military base in Syria, Turkey is also on the way to build a military base in Libya. It is only a matter of time before a Turkish base is established in Azerbaijan — Turkish airliners and military advisers are already active there. Turkey also has a dispute with Israel over Palestine. General Sisi's Egypt is directly hostile to Turkey and is advising Greece. The French warship came to search the Libyan oil ship, which was guarded by a Turkish frigate. Turkey is also conducting oil and gas exploration in the Black Sea under the watch of the navy.
Why the new Turkish Sultan has opened fronts on so many borders. Why does his army have to stay awake? Photo: Collected
Turkey has used the German slogan of Emperor Bismarck to reverse the previous situation: the more enemies, the more dignity. Turkey is fighting Assad's forces, IS and the Kurds in Syria. Erdogan is also credited with keeping the UN-backed government in the capital by blocking Egyptian and Russian-backed Haftar forces in Libya. Turkish troops are also campaigning against Iraqi Kurds. There are low-level clashes with Greece, Greco-Cyprus and Egypt. Now a new front has been opened against Armenia, although here it is Azerbaijan. In the end, whether it will be good or bad for Turkey is another matter. Before that we need to see why the new Turkish Sultan has opened fronts on so many borders. Why does his army have to stay awake?
The realities of each battlefield are closely intertwined. Failure to deter the Kurds in Syria could lead to the establishment of an independent Kurdistan, first on the Turkish border and later in parts of Turkish territory with Western support. Without it, if there is no peace in Syria, how will Turkey's fragile economy be freed from the burden of the 2.7 million Syrian refugees who have taken refuge in Turkey? On the other hand, Russia's presence in Syria means that Turkey's security is under threat. He needs Libyan oil to meet Turkey's energy needs, and possess a few oil mines if possible. Turkey comes through the oil and gas pipeline of Azerbaijan. The discovery of huge oil reserves in the Black Sea and the assurance of oil and gas imported from Libya-Syria-Iran-Iraq and Azerbaijan will bring Turkey out of its dependence on Russia for fuel.
Turkey's desire to become a regional energy superpower is no secret. The country is in a favorable position for this role in all respects. In the words of Dimitar Beshev, a professor of Russian descent, "on both sides are the oil and gas producing Middle East and South Caucasus and the European Union, the buyer of energy." This positional advantage is the trump card in the hands of Turkey. However, the discovery of huge gas reserves in the Black Sea of Turkey will really change the rules of the game .... The discovery of fuel gas reserves in the Black Sea will further increase Turkey's bargaining power.
The new Sultan of Turkey, Erdogan, is desperate to change the rules of the game. And in this game he is playing a clever game with both Russian-American power. The distance between Russia and Russia when a Russian warplane crashes into the skies draws the support of Europeans and the United States as NATO members. He again supported Russia in suppressing the Kurds. The real conflict with Erdogan's ambitions is between Russian President Putin. Erdogan has blocked Russian influence in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Azerbaijan-Armenia war is also playing tricks to drag Russia. There are Russian military bases in Armenia. Russia, the heir to the former Soviet Union, is said to be on the side of Armenia as an Orthodox Christian state. If Russia is thus distracted in the Caucasus, Turkey will benefit in the Middle East. In this way, the West will also enjoy the game of putting pressure on Russia through Turkey. At the same time, Russia's side with Armenia means that the anti-Putin Western powers will either remain neutral or strengthen the hand of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Another implication is the assurance of Trump's support against Putin.
This complex game is not only of power, not of geopolitics, but also of intellect. Apart from that, Erdogan also needed a war to heal unpopularity due to the troubled economy in Corona. He is also successful in this regard. Despite criticism of the method, his opponents have also sided with Erdogan on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
Not the economy, but military power is now Erdogan's only tool. So far, the Turks have not lost anywhere. This populist dictator seems to know the rules of when to stop and when to increase the pressure. He has strengthened Turkey's arms industry by looking into the distance. Turkey is now capable of building armed drones, warships and fighter helicopters.
Turkey alone has reversed the pace and direction of three wars: Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan-Armenia. Russia had to stop in all three. But a direct conflict with Russia is not his goal. His goal is to stay in a more favorable position when Turkey renews its long-term agreements with Russian Gazprom in 2021. As well as bringing a little more justification to the sharing of power with Russia and the United States with the recognition of regional powers. In the last 18 years, he has never stopped working. This is why it is said that the new Turkish Sultan never sleeps.
What demands justice today, will tomorrow become the imperialist aspiration of extremist nationalism. We have seen such ambitious empires in Britain, France and the United States. Their previous emphasis is no more. Trump's United States has withdrawn from the Middle East. Russia, Turkey, Iran and China are coming forward to fill that gap. China's focus is not solely on territory, but on exclusive economic expansion. Iran is now relatively busy managing the situation, especially in Iraq and Lebanon. In that vacuum, Putin and Erdogan are moving forward in the Middle East, sometimes in friendship and sometimes in isolated conflicts. And Putin is so fierce that he does not allow a friend to sleep in peace like an enemy. He was Erdogan's friend in the military coup, and is likely to be a potential enemy from Syria to Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh.
Erdogan has no sleep in the dream of Turkish empire, even in the thoughts of Putin. The Turkish Sultan is playing a deadly game. Regional geopolitical victories are making him more confident day by day. At the same time it brings with it the risk of conflict in a new enemy alliance. No doubt, Turkish Sultan Erdogan is facing more sleepless years.
Excellent writing