WHAT IS THE C.1.2 Variant?
The C.1.2 strain has scientists' attention because it possesses mutations within the genome similar to past variants, like Delta.
A new Covid-19 variant has been detected in South Africa and made headlines all over the world.
On Monday the National Institute for Communicable disease in South Africa issued an alert about the "C.1.2 lineage", saying it had been detected in all provinces in the country, but at a relatively low rate.
C.1.2 was first detected in May based on recent information from health agencies, but the Delta variant is still a major problem in South Africa and the World and spreading at an alarming rate.
A pre-print, non-peer-reviewed paper published about the variant said "C.1.2 has since been detected across the major provinces in South Africa and in seven other countries spanning Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania".
The C.1.2 lineage has drawn the attention of scientists because, despite its low rate in the population, it possesses mutations within the genome similar to those seen in variants of interest and variants of concern, like the Delta variant, as well as some additional mutations.
So what do we know about the new variant, and how concerned should we be?
Has the World Health Organization listed it as a variant of interest or concern?
Not yet. The National Institute for Communicable Diseases is continuing to monitor the frequency of C.1.2 and examine how it behaves. Tests to assess the impact of the mutations it possesses on infectiousness and vaccine resistance are still underway. So far, the virus has not fulfilled the WHO criteria to qualify as a “variant of concern” or “variant of interest”.
Variants of concern, such as Delta, are those that show increased transmissibility, virulence, or change in clinical disease, and a decreased effectiveness of public health and social measures.
Then why was an alert issued?
A virologist and lecturer in immunology and infectious diseases with the University of Sydney’s Central Clinical School, Dr. Megan Steain, said it’s because of the particular mutations that C.1.2 contains.
“It contains quite a few key mutations that we see in other variants that have gone on to become variants of interest or concern,” Steain said. “Any time we see those particular mutations come up, we’d like to keep an eye on the variant to see what it’s going to do. These mutations may affect things like whether it evades the immune response, or transmits faster.”
It will take some time for scientists to do the laboratory tests to see whether the virus is in fact fitter, she said.
“While we can say that it has a few key mutations that have led to other variants being more infectious, often what we find is the mutations work in synergy together which can overall lead to a fitter virus, potentially, or a weaker virus.
“All these studies in the lab take quite a while. There is a lot of work to be done.”
Is there a chance this variant might die out?
Yes. Covid-19 variants emerge all of the time and many of them disappear before they can become a real problem. Many virus variants are very fragile.
The key mutants are the ones that survive the changes and continue, and start to overgrow the variants of the past, which is what we saw with Delta.
“C.1.2 would have to be pretty good, pretty fit, and pretty fast to outcompete Delta at this stage,” Steain said. “I think we’re still very much at a point where this could die out, the prevalence is really low.
“We saw this with the Beta variant, and other variants of concern, where it looked like there could be a problem, they even had areas where they were transmitted and spread quite well. But then they haven’t really taken hold over time and were overtaken by other variants of concern that are able to transmit faster. And so they just essentially die out.
“That could easily still happen with C.1.2.”
Do we know if vaccines will be effective against C.1.2?
“We can take an educated guess based on some of the mutations that it has, in that it’s similar to what we’ve seen in other variants like beta, as well as Delta,” Steain said.
“So we think, perhaps, the serum won’t neutralize as well as it would against an ancestral strain. But until we actually do those experiments it’s speculative really. We’ve got to bear in mind that the vaccine so far looks like it’s holding up really, really well in terms of preventing severe infection and hospitalizations, and deaths from variants. They’re really good at preventing that.
She said there was no need to panic.
“It’s important, however, to keep an eye on the other variants that are out there and just watch and see how they go.”
South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases said: “We are being cautious about the implications, while we gather more data to understand virus of this lineage.
“Based on our understanding of the mutations in this variant, we suspect that it might be able to partially evade the immune response, but despite this, the vaccine will still offer high levels of protection against hospitalization and death,” the institute said.