In 2020, Bitcoin is still the hope of everyone becoming a waste

BTC

Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been tepid, and the trend has not been able to break the pattern of box shocks. However, bitcoin's weakness has not led to a continued downturn in the market. On the contrary, other mainstream currencies quietly strengthened during the period of Bitcoin's rest. The varieties have been performing in turns, and the market has shown a clear structural market. As of now, the better-performing varieties ETC, BCH, EOS, LTC have rebounded from low to high by more than 20%, and the market's earning effect has improved significantly compared with the first half of December. At present, because the market transaction volume has not significantly increased, many investors in the market still remain cautious, especially in the short two days from December 28 to December 29, the USDT OTC exchange rate against the RMB The plunge was close to 1%. This casts a shadow on the market sentiment that has just warmed. Is the decline in USDT a signal that a new round of adjustment is about to start?

01

Coin Market Trader

 Strategic Analysis

The reason is no doubt that in the case of market performance is relatively stable, resulting in USDT prices plummeted only two: First, USDT large number of additional short period of time, resulting in market supply and demand imbalance; second is the venue substantial funds to flee, was USDT holders Realize a lot. Judging from the changes on the chain in the past week, the total issuance of USDT is only 20 million, and only 5.06 million flows into the exchange, so the decline in USDT price is obviously not caused by the additional issuance.

So, what exactly caused the USDT to be realized in large quantities? 

1. The year is approaching, companies are speeding up their withdrawals, banks are speeding up their settlements, and overall funds in all sectors of society are tightening, and the currency market is also affected. The most typical example is that once the year closes, the stock exchange guarantee deposits in the stock market will continue to have a net outflow. In the first 2-3 days of New Year's Day, the stock market's single-day outflow will reach its peak, which exactly coincides with the time when the USDT is discounted in the currency market. The combination of the currency and stock investment attributes is the same. I understand.

2. Under the influence of continued strong supervision, due to the withdrawal of a large number of trading platforms and severe crackdowns on ICOs, the demand for USDT in the short-term market has dropped significantly.

Obviously, the outflow of 1 is mainly affected by the effect of the annual pass, and the situation of capital shortage will gradually ease once the annual pass. 2 It has a great impact on the market's investment and financing activities, and this impact will last for a long time. However, from the perspective of disk observation, during the period of large outflow of funds, the performance of mainstream currencies was relatively strong, and various currencies rose to varying degrees, which indicates that the impact of regulation on mainstream currencies has begun to weaken  . Compared with the strength of mainstream currencies, Air Currency has become the hardest hit area for capital flight. From the aggregate data of mytoken, there are a variety of currencies with a daily decline of 20% -50% on various platforms. The most terrible thing is that these currencies have almost no liquidity. Realize. These phenomena also prove the author's previous point of view, with the deepening of supervision, the collapse of Air Coin will cause funds to shift to value coins.

In the afternoon, in order to ensure a reasonable and adequate social liquidity and reduce the financing costs of small and micro enterprises, the central bank opened countercyclical adjustments and announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction. This move is expected to bring 800 billion liquidity to the market. Prior to this, in order to cope with the tightness of funds in the year, the Fed injected USD 500 billion of liquidity into the market by expanding the table. Since major countries around the world have recently adopted loose monetary policies, presumably the performance of commodities in the global stock markets in the near future will not be bad, and of course the currency market is no exception.

In the past decade, the world's best performing asset is undoubtedly Bitcoin, with a return of millions of times. One of the world's best-performing assets in 2019 is still Bitcoin, with annual holdings of up to 68%, much higher than 18% of gold and Nasdaq's 34.45%. The amazing performance of Bitcoin in the past makes the market full of expectations for Bitcoin's performance in 2020. However, I have no ability to judge how Bitcoin's performance throughout the year 2020, but from the current favorable conditions, Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter should not be too bad.

02

Coin Market Trader

 Market analysis

BTC: If we cannot break through 7689 in the short term, the box shock will still be at 7100-7400 in the future. Due to the very limited funds in the market, it cannot support the general price increase, and the mainstream currency prices of BCH, EOS and other mainstream currencies continue to ferment. I believe that in this case, the possibility of a sudden increase in the amount of Bitcoin is very low, it is recommended to continue Do a good job in the range of high selling and low suction.

ETH: I carefully counted, the sum of the ETH held by Upbit stolen PLUS and PLUS TOKEN and the ETH held by the Ethereum founding team accounted for 6.5% of the total ETH circulation. In fact, even if all these chips are sold, the impact on the secondary market is very limited. As an example, everyone understands that last year Yao Zhenhua successively sold nearly 60 billion worth of Vanke shares (accounting for 20% of the circulating share capital), but Vanke's stock price was not affected at all. The underlying reason behind this is that Vanke's value market has no If you do n’t recognize it, someone will buy it. If ETH is also valuable, what is this 6.5%? The reason for the current decline in ETH is that the fundamental logic is not strong. But falling to this position is almost exhausted, and the killing valuation is also completed, and the low-sucking below 125 is mainly.

EOS: The volume and price are well coordinated, and there are often dishwashing on the way to the rise. The overall rise is slowly in the form of two advances and one retreat. There is a high probability that an accelerating large Yang line will appear. If it is to continue to strengthen, it needs to break through the previous resistance level of 2.85.

BCH: The trend is relatively strong. After 4 hours of digging and then filling the pits, the possibility of main dish washing is greater. A pullback is an opportunity to cover positions, and the buying area is 201-203.

XRP: The sideways market fluctuates, and the market outlook is likely to follow the market upwards. 

LTC: The second stepping back has been completed, and we continue to be bullish in the medium term. The first stage target position 44 has been reached, the second stage target position is 50, and the third stage target position is 58.