I believe Bitcoin Core (BTC) is currently facing a triple-top pattern. If it fails to break upwards, the ongoing uptrend may end, creating a market structure different from previous halving cycles. This halving cycle is already unusual because the price surged before the halving date, suggesting the current trend might conclude earlier than expected. By November 2024, Bitcoin will have been in a two-year cycle. If Bitcoin cannot surpass the current pattern by then, the current high, which resembles a triple top, might mark a significant peak.

To identify this price range, look for a 5 to 7% fluctuation above and below the previous all-time high (ATH) on your charts. This will help you visualize the triple-top pattern more clearly.

In this picture, we can also see an ascending triangle pattern, often considered a bullish signal that may indicate a potential breakout to the upside, especially if accompanied by increased volume. However, a downtrend to test the uptrend line at the bottom is also possible. This could mean BTC might retest the previous all-time low (ATL) if the price drops to the $30,000 level. If it reverses and tries to climb again from this level, it would still be within the bullish trend and structure. Additionally, on the weekly chart, we have the Gaussian Channel (GC) occurring around the same level, which further supports the potential for a bullish continuation.

If you notice, the volume is not increasing as it did during previous bull trends. This indicates that the current trend might be different. The last picture also illustrates how far the price could fall if this trend diverges from historical patterns.

If the market perceives the current BTC trend as different, and the volume remains insufficient, along with the bottom of the triple-top pattern, it could signal a market reversal. This would break previous patterns and potentially drive the price down to the bottom of the monthly Gaussian Channel (GC), which is around $11,000 or even lower. This scenario also aligns with the theory of diminishing returns, suggesting that each subsequent bull cycle yields progressively lower returns.

The issue with Bitcoin is that even if fewer than 2 billion people attempt to use it, transaction fees could exceed $100, making it impractical for widespread adoption. The Lightning Network (LN), intended to alleviate this problem, could potentially double these fees for those wanting to maintain custody of their funds. Additionally, for the LN to remain sufficiently decentralized, nodes need to maintain at least 16 channels. Nodes with just 1 to 3 channels become centralized, undermining the decentralized ethos of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Cash offers a compelling alternative, as it allows for transactions without the high fees associated with Bitcoin. You can use Bitcoin Cash both as money and as a decentralized tool, thanks to CashTokens, which enables enhanced functionality without compromising decentralization. The dynamic block upgrade (ABLA) feature ensures scalability and efficiency.

In 2024, a $1,000 investment can run a 32MB blocksize blockchain without compromising decentralization. A $5,000 regular computer can manage a 128MB blocksize blockchain, sufficient for the next 10 years. As hardware continues to improve, by 2034, it will be possible to run a 1GB block-size network on a regular computer without compromising decentralization, similar to how today's computers can handle 128MB blocks for a decade.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is currently in a clear downtrend, having recently tested a critical resistance level when it hit the blue line. If Bitcoin Cash follows Bitcoin's pattern, the weekly Gaussian Channel (GC) could act as support. Should Bitcoin break its current price structure, it might lead to a retest of the all-time low (ATL) for Bitcoin Cash around $100.

A confirmation of the triple top theory could result in Bitcoin Cash creating lower lows. However, if Bitcoin only tests the bottom line of the ascending triangle, the current BCH chart should stay above the green bottom line. In this scenario, the price should not drop below $120 but remain within the GC range or around $160. This would indicate that Bitcoin Cash is holding within its support levels and maintaining a more stable price structure.

In conclusion, the market's direction remains uncertain, but we have several possible scenarios to consider. If Bitcoin continues to rise and creates a higher high, Bitcoin Cash is likely to follow suit. We could see Bitcoin testing the ascending bottom pattern around $29,000, which aligns with the Gaussian Channel (GC) for Bitcoin Cash around $160.

However, if the market takes a more catastrophic turn, breaking all previous trends, Bitcoin could drop below $11,000, and Bitcoin Cash could fall below $120. While it's challenging to predict the exact market movements, these scenarios provide a framework for understanding potential outcomes based on current patterns and support levels.

Bonus

CashTokens is the DeFi protocol on-chain layer one for Bitcoin Cash, offering both utility tokens and meme tokens. Currently, the values of these tokens are declining, which might present a buying opportunity for assets with future potential and present utility. I am particularly interested in Furu Tokens for now, as my focus is on utility. Later, I may explore meme tokens again, but I am avoiding them for the moment.

If the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash markets decline to break their current market structures or test the ascending triangle patterns, it will be prudent to monitor CashTokens. These tokens could experience a bear trend while BTC and BCH are in a bull trend and might reverse once BTC and BCH turn bearish. This could present strategic investment opportunities in the CashTokens ecosystem.

Reward this writer in the form of Bitcoin Cash, so that I can keep myself motivated to write the next opinion article. Your support helps create content.

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