How do you think the war in Ukraine will end? Possible scenarios!
25 days of war in Ukraine. Hundreds dead, thousands wounded, dozens of soldiers captured, tens of thousands fleeing the country. That would be, so far, an analysis of this war.
But let's see how this war would end and who would have the advantage.
1 Ukrainian forces will be able to completely stop Vladimir Putin's army offensive
2 Russia will succeed in overthrowing the government in Kyiv and installing a regime that supports their ideas.
3 A new Iron Curtain in Europe
4 NATO and the Russian Federation will end up being involved in a devastating war
Scenario 1: The Ukrainians resist, the Russians have to leave.
The armed forces and the Ukrainian people are blocking Moscow's advance, preventing President Vladimir Putin from overthrowing the democratic government in Kyiv and establishing a puppet regime.
After the Kremlin realized that Russia would pay an exorbitant price for its adventurism, including the prospect of a long and costly battle in Ukraine, along with economic collapse and diplomatic isolation, Putin ordered the withdrawal of his troops. Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy, while the defeat of Moscow accelerates the internal discontent that has already begun to be felt throughout Russia.
As Russia isolates itself from the international community and Ukraine moves closer and closer to the West, NATO emerges stronger as a result of the crisis, benefiting from an improved security situation.
Scenario 2: Russia wins, the Ukrainians are defeated.
After weeks of intense fighting in Kyiv and other big cities, Russia manages to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a puppet regime. Neither the Ukrainian armed forces nor the civilian population surrendered, organizing a large-scale, well-armed and well-coordinated insurgency against the Russian invaders.
The Ukrainian resistance movement is causing significant human and financial losses to Rudia, who is being forced to devote much more resources to a much longer period of time than anticipated. Ukrainian insurgency is backed by NATO countries, which secretly provide significant defensive assistance. The conflict will drain Moscow's finances and determination, eventually forcing Russian forces to withdraw.
Scenario 3: A new Iron Curtain in Europe.
Ukraine is finally collapsing under the force of the Russian invasion. Despite intense opposition, Russian forces manage to take control of the country. Resistance against a puppet government installed by Putin is significant, but it is being brutally suppressed and not proving strong enough to pose a significant challenge to the many Russian forces stationed in Ukraine. A new Iron Curtain appears in Eastern Europe, passing along the borders of the Baltic states in the north through those of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania in the south.
As in the case of the first Iron Curtain, the new split in Europe brings with it a familiar list of dangers and uncertainties. NATO and Russian troops will face each other along a militarized border, with the major risk of a direct conflict - accidental or planned. The continent will witness intermittent security crises as Russia launches new aggressive military operations, including hybrids, against NATO allies.
Scenario 4: A NATO-Russia war.
The most dangerous scenario for the future of Europe and the global order is when the conflict in Ukraine prepares the scene for a direct military conflict between NATO and Russia.
NATO may decide to step up its involvement in the current crisis, for example by trying to implement a no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory or by resorting to another form of direct intervention.
Russia could accidentally hit the territory of a NATO member state, provoking the alliance's armed reaction.
Putin may have bigger projects, far beyond the conquest of Ukraine.
It is not ruled out that the Russian president will decide to attack Moldova or Georgia or even try to conquer the Suwalki Corridor, a 100-kilometer-wide strip of land linking Poland and Lithuania between the Russian enclave of Kalinigrad and Belarus. This would sever any ground link between NATO and the EU and the three Baltic states.
Does Putin think NATO will back down if confronted directly? Will NATO fight against any Russian military incursion on an alliance member state? Remains to be seen.
