Many months back I wrote an article about cognitive bias. It was more about how outside influences are used to influence our decisions. But there is something in us which makes us think we understand things better than we actually understand. And it is a true fact that we have a habit of overestimating our ability most of the times.
When we sit around dinner table with our family or relatives or friends we discuss a wide ranging variety of topics on which we have some pretty serious discussions as well as differences of opinion. We have the habit of justifying our view and even trying to imposing them on others. It is as if we have knowledge about everything and also carry a strong opinion about them. The topics may range from astronomy to biology to politics to literature to climate change – we have the belief that we know about it better that we actually know about them.
Now a days with internet and social media we find that every other person claiming to be an expert of something or the other. They project themselves as if they have all the knowledge on a variety of topics are competent enough to give guidance to others. We find politicians and bureaucrats talking about a variety of topics as an expert on news channel and social media, and sometimes we laugh at what they are saying. We find such people in our known circle also who display such behavior. A version of this effect can be found here also as many of us write articles thinking we have sufficient knowledge about it but it is not actually the case- that includes me in the first place. Another very common example related to our crypto field is doing technical analysis of crypto charts by you tubers. There are hundreds of you tubers doing this claiming themselves as an expert but having dubious credentials. Even unknowingly we also suffer from this effect to some extent.
This effect is called the Dunning Kruger effect. They are two psychologists named David Dunning and Justin Kruger who researched on this behavior and developed it through various social experiments.
They found that in any organization the low performers are most likely to underestimate to skill and knowledge of high performers and thereby rating themselves as if they are above average or better performers than the other group. Another common misconception is that we all are above average drivers. Only 50 percent can be above average technically but if we survey a group of people we will find that more than 50 percent will say that they are above average drivers. It was also found that the top 25 percent people of an organization will underestimate their skill and knowledge and the bottom 25 percent will overestimate their knowledge. May be it is due to the sense of inferiority or lack of confidence which they want to compensate by thinking that they are better than actually what they are. It can be also that they fail to recognize or don’t want to recognize real talent and skill.
This effect is so common that if we keep our eyes open to it then we can easily identify it in our daily life. Whatever be the case interacting with such people may lead to serious differences of opinion and if stretched further it can lead to strained relations. It is better to ignore engaging with them when it becomes obvious that he is having this effect and steer the discussion to some other direction. As it is, as we grow old our opinions tends to become more rigid, and our acceptance ability decreases.
To overcome the effect we need to first an understanding at where we actually stand and then increase our knowledge and skill and practice and thereafter get an unbiased feedback from whom we trust. It is important to take corrective measures as it affects of decision taking ability from the mundane to important ones.
It is true that we all have this effect to some extent. We may not accept it which is a natural thing.