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Champions League Parlay! Parlay builder post!

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Written by   86
3 months ago

2 more matchday in the group phase of the Champions League. Within this phase it gets tricky. You must almost rule out all games in which teams do play which already are qualified from the knock-out stages. In some case they still do want to win their group, while other's aren't interest into this.

So let's see what group will have games today and what the situation in the group is. Maybe I can combine a decent enough Parlay.

Group E

Nothing is decided yet in this group. Chelsea does have the lead but still can get eliminated for European Football after the World Cup. The most important game in this group today is the one between Zagreb and Milan. Both do need a win to keep their chances alive. A draw could only help them if the game between Chelsea and Salzburg doesn't end on a draw. So both teams don't have any option to go full out for the win, but this is also dangerous because loosing would mean that they probably will end last in the group. Not so a big issue for Zagreb, but that would be a disgrace for Milan!
Milan did win their home game against Zagreb with 3-1 but isn't exactly consistent since then with loosing against Chelsea twice and against Napoli at home. Zagreb at home has a pretty good track record. Only 1 draw at home, and 9 wins. Chelsea lost 1-0 while Salzburg only did take home a point after a 1-1 draw.
So if the odds for Milan are above 2, this could be a great game for in the Parlay. Mmh, only 1.81. Not very high with the strong home reputation of Zagreb in the back of our minds and the not really hot streak of Milan. But Milan does need a win and I am confident that they can pull it off. So a win for Milan it will be!

A win for Chelsea will guarantee them to reach the second phase of the Champions League, a draw would result in at least European Football after the winter stop.
Salzburg doesn't need to win this game to qualify if they do win their last game of the group. But why wait and count on that?
Salzburg still haven't lost a game, the question is if this streak will be broken for today or not? Chelsea was capable if winning their last 2 games in the Premier League, While Salzburg also only drew against Sturm Graz at home. Resulting in only 2 wins out of the last 5 games in the Austrian Bundesliga.
I do favor Chelsea slightly, so let's see what the odds are for a x2 for this game. 1.22 for the x2, which is on the lower side, a win for Chelsea has odds of 1.79. Maybe I won't include this game into a parlay!

Group F


Real Madrid already did qualify for the next round but they probably still want to win the group. While the situation for Celtic looks disastrous. They still have a small chance to progress. But they need to win against Shaktar at home this evening, while Leipzig may not win against Real.

Let's first focus on the RB Leipzig - Real game. For Real it is simple, a draw would be enough to win the group. Leipzig still has the last game of the group as a rescue if they loose today. Regardless of the result in the other game of the group today, they will always qualify if they could win the last game away at Shaktar.
We can't ignore that the 6 points Leipzig have all come from the 2 games against Celtic. Loosing 2-0 in Madrid and getting their ass kicked by Shaktar in the opening game with 1-4. So, no not a lot of confidence into Leipzig. The problem with Real is that is will be hard to know if and which players will be rested. Probably no Valverde, no Modric and for sure no Benzema yet. So I will skip this game.

If Celtic does want to win a game in this Champions League campaign, the home game against Shaktar is considered their only chance. The odds for a Celtic win are around 1.76, while the double chance stands on 1.23. But a market that does look interesting is the both teams to score. So far, Celtic still needs to score a goal on own ground during this champions league, on the other side Shaktar seems to score in all games but also does concede at least one goal. The odds for the BTTS are around 1.65, while the over 2.5 goals is around 1.69. So only a lit but higher odds for an extra goal. The BTTS will be the bet for this game!

2 more group and 4 more games to go, would be great to have an extra bet on the Parlay ticket!

Group G


So what do we know about group g! City has qualified for the next round but still needs some more points to secure the group win! At the bottom there are still chances for Sevilla and Copenhagen to reach the next round, but those scenarios don't look really realistic. While both teams do need a perfect score, all other results should be in their favor, starting with a loss of Dortmund this evening against City.

I do think that Dortmund is the small favorite against City this evening. For sure City will rest some players with the very busy calendar before the World Cup kicks off. Well the odds are clealy in favor of City, which does maybe make a bet on Dortmund double chance very interesting. A win or draw for Dortmund had odds of 2.48, that represents a change of only 40%. I do really think that they do have a better change in not loosing. So probably this will result maybe into a single bet or a very risky parlay.
But if you do want to take a chance: Dortmund 1X @2.48 is a more than decent bet!

Sevilla vs Copenhagen is more difficult to judge for me, due to the fact that Sevilla is my team in Spain. Based on name, one would instantly bet on a home win for Sevilla, but within the current season this isn't a no brainer.
Both teams do need a win, not only to keep their chances for the Champions League alive, but a win would more mean that the will play the Europa League after the winter break, which for the moment is the better tournament for them. Take for instance Copenhagen, which is the only teams who still needs to score an goal during this group phase. In the last home game did they did had a scoreless draw at home against City, but City got an early red card within this game.
Due to the recent results of Sevilla, mostly in La Liga, did force them to sack their head coach. Under the new coach, the results are slightly better but still not up the standard of Sevilla. During the past weekend they did loose their first game under Sampaoli. Since Sampaoli took over they have 3 draws, one win and a loss. Also Copenhagen isn’t playing the season of their dreams, which also did result into sacking their head manager in the middle of September, but also after that chance things did improve a lot with 4 draws, a win in extra time for the cup and a loss against City.
So Sevilla looks like a more than decent bet with odds of 1.54.

Group H

In group H, we do find another top team in trouble. Juventus only has 3 points at the moment after a 3-1 home win against Haifa. But they did loose the game in Maccabi with 2-0. So the chances for both team to qualify for the next round are probably only existing on paper. Juventus is facing an away game at Benfica, while Haifa will have to travel to Paris for the game against PSG. I did some calculations and it appears that if both Juventus and Haifa will win their 2 remaining games, both will qualify for the next round.
PSG is the clear and obvious favorite against Haifa. I don't see any value in this game.

Don't be fooled by the name of Juventus. They aren't the team they used to be. Benfica is the favorite in this game. While Juventus does have troubles scoring away from home and do lake the away form, I will stay away from this game. To hard to predict.

Conclusion

I will play one 3 fold parlay and a single bet. There is just too much value in the double chance for Dortmund to ignore it.
The 3 fold parlay will consist of:

  • Milan win at Zagreb

  • Sevilla wins at home against Copenhagen

  • BTTS Celtic and Shaktar
    Combined odds: 4.655

But also a single on Dortmund not to loose at 2.38.

Cheers and good luck,
Peter

Preferred bookie: Betfury


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Written by   86
3 months ago
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