An Enonomy without Oil

I am puzzled by how a post independent Nigeria would have been if crude oil was never discovered in Oloibiri in 1956. Crude oil is not an achievement of the people but rather an accident of nature we have failed to take full advantage of. With the recent global oil prices, countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia can were not affected by low prices because of their alternative source of revenues aside oil and deep cash reserve to support their economy.

The NNPC in recent years have become a cash cow that still can not refine petroleum for our local demand despite the big funds budgeted for it turn-around maintenance every year. One can only hope that the imminent Dangote Refinery with a daily target of about 600,000 barrel will go a long way is serving local demand.

The leadership and vision of Nationalist like Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who built the first television network in Africa, the Cocoa House and Some Other notable projects across the South West Nigeria without oil money still inspire the believe that with the right leaders at the helm, Nigeria can be great again. Presently, aside the Lagos economy, many state in the country will be in comatose without monthly allocation from FG especially now that the oil economy is dying, with plans for countries like Britain and UAE to phase out petrol cars in the next ten years or less. What becomes of a country like Nigeria? We had the opportunity to build a solid non oil dependent economy from what looks like a free money from oil but that opportunity seems to have now evaporated after 60 years of unabated corruption and poor foresight from the political class. Not doing the right thing when we had the opportunity has now snowballed into the hydra headed security challenge across the country, poor quality of education, inflation, poor and substandard infrastructure and numerous problems that continue to plague us as a nation. For the best part of a decade, successive governments have talked about the diversification of the economy in an attempt to reverse the Nation's dependence on crude oil with no real progress despite numerous policies, reforms and loans. With the pandemic this year and declining GDP, there's renewed urgency to take the issue of diversification with the seriousness it deserves. In the 1970's, the agric sector accounted for 57% of our GDP and 64% of export earnings, however as a result of climate change and loss of biodiversity, it doesn't represent a smart investment for Nigeria, because of our poor attitude to climate change. There's also the need to break the feeding bottle mentality among politicians especially state governors and there should be decentralisation of power for each state/region to grow at their own pace.   Currently, 40% of our working population are either unemployed or underemployed, getting these group of people productive will significantly boost our output. These objectives are no doubt ambitious because of the present situation of the country with the recession but with competent leadership, deliberate and consistent policies, the fortune of Nigeria will turn around.