Dates would be important to mention here. Hugo Chavez came into power in 1999 and remained president until 2013 when he died, after which Nicolas Maduro took over and has been in power since then. That's over 20 years of the same government and economic policies. US sanctions came in during the past couple of years, due to the Venezuelan government's involvement in international drug trade and domestic terrorism, which is well documented.
The current Venezuelan government is recognized by the United Nations, so presenting Russia and China as main backers of the current Venezuela government is not logical. Venezuela is very rich in resources.
Some say that Maduro is the legitimate president and highlight the idea that the U.S. only want puppets and once they are done with them, they assassinate them. Opposition should stop working for Venezuela's enemies. They are just hired and can be replaced. In my personal opinion, this type of statements are wrong. Every regime has its bad parts and good ones. Venezuela is something new for many people. Probably the next one will be Belarus very soon.
How likely is a US military intervention in Venezuela?
Following the refusal of the military who remained loyal to Nicolas Maduro to allow the delivery of foreign aid to Venezuela, the likelihood that Washington would become militarily involved in the conflict between Maduro and Juan Guaido has increased. The United States has recognized Guaido as Venezuela's interim president, as have many countries in Europe and Latin America. Following the violent clashes, he called on the international community to consider "all measures" to liberate the country.
US former Vice President Mike Pence, who traveled to Colombia to meet with Latin American President Iván Duque and Juan Guaido, announced then new sanctions. He promised that Washington would remain with Guaido until Venezuela's freedom was restored. But we will see what's going to happen now once Joe Biden has been elected President.
EU against an intervention
"We must avoid military intervention," Maja Kocijancic, spokeswoman for European Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, said in an interview few months ago.
The open rejection of the military option comes at the right time, several US experts have noted, as the likelihood of an intervention has increased since last weekend.
"The military option is more plausible now than at any other time since the beginning of the crisis in Venezuela," said Michael Shifter, director of the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) think tank in Washington.
The scenario of a military intervention is "more likely now than it was on February 23, because efforts to bring aid to Venezuela have failed," said Gregory Weeks, a researcher at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte, USA, whose specialization It's Latin America.
Both experts estimate that the probability of a military intervention is somewhere between 30 and 40 percent. They consider that it is not bigger because such a step would not have support either in Europe or in the rest of Latin America.
"Not even Bolsonaro in Brazil really says that," Weeks said, referring to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Donald Trump, who spoke in support of Maduro's overthrow.
However, Gregory Weeks added, the political atmosphere could change quite quickly: "At the moment there is no spark, but we have seen something like this in the past. And it would be something that I think would increase the likelihood of armed intervention and would change the calculations. "
Such a "spark" that would change political calculations could be an extension of violence against the opposition, the arrest or physical injury of opposition leader Guaido, or an attack on US diplomatic personnel in Venezuela.
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