Mathematics of epidemiology

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How fast is this virus spreading? Some people will say "there are only a few thousand infected, that's nothing." We humans do not have the intuitive mathematics of epidemiology, we have the false feeling that "it is nothing".

Here is the story that explains it - the famous legend of the inventor of chess.

The man who invented the game of "chess", somewhere in the 13th century, showed his king a new game. The king was delighted with this game.

"This is great, what do you want me to give you as a reward for making such a good game?" The king asked.

"I would like grain," said the inventor

- “Of course! How much grain? ”

- “I would like to put one grain of grain on this first field of the chessboard. Then to the second field two, then to the next 4, then 8 then 16, then 32 grains of grain… twice as much each time, and so on to the last field on the board. ”

- “Well, that's just a little grain! That's no reward for you! Are you sure you want that? ”The king asked.

The inventor insisted that it be his reward. The king thought "what a fool, he sold me such a good game for a little grain", and gave his mathematicians to calculate how much grain it is and to pay a man.

However, when the mathematicians calculated, they came to the data that it is 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of grain, ie that 4 planets of the Earth should be sown with the entire surface in order to make so much grain.

According to that legend, the king was delighted with the wisdom of this inventor and invited him to be his advisor.

The same thing happens with a virus. At this moment, we see very few grains of grain on the board (number of patients) and we can easily be deceived as it is nothing terrible. But if each patient infects two more on average (quite realistically if we didn't do anything), then the math would be the same as on this board.

That is why it is important to be at home and not to have contact with people, because the math is clear - the number of patients can only decrease when one patient infects less than one new person on average (for example, 0.😎. All over 1, leads in the mathematics of a chessboard with huge numbers.