(The data presented in this is from England but I am sure the data from other countries will look very similar)
So this was already starting to become clear towards the end of last year, but now the data seems to incontrovertible. Data seems to quite clearly show that in England COVID deaths are being counted at roughly double the rate they should be.
Excess Deaths
Excess deaths are the best way to getting concrete data on what is happening. It is very easy to count if someone is either alive or dead and we have accurate historical data on the number of deaths happening each week going back years. Using this information we can check excess deaths, i.e. the difference in the number of deaths happening as compared with the number of deaths at that time of year in previous years. This gives us a very good picture of if something 'abnormal' is happening.
The data in the graphs below from THIS site which takes its data from ONS.
The data is clear, something 'abnormal' is happening and excess deaths are up significantly. In this data you can very clearly see the first and second waves of the pandemic.
COVID Deaths
There is something else important that you can see in this data though. We also have the data for the number of deaths classed as 'COVID deaths', and we can map this against the excess deaths.
In this data, some interesting facts appear. It is clear from this data that in the first wave of the pandemic in March and April that we were under-counting COVID deaths. This is clear from the fact that excess deaths increased with the pandemic. More importantly, what is also clear from the data is that we are now massively over-counting/misattributing COVID deaths. This is clear from the fact that excess deaths from other causes decrease synchronously with COVID deaths. It is a mirror image. It's important to note that the lack of 'other' excess deaths in the last two weeks of 2020 is partly due to the fact that 2020 had a 53rd week whereas previous years did not, and partly due to the fact that death data is delayed during the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Public Health England
Public Health England released their regular report on excess mortality recently and you can see the report here: https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html.
In the report it does recognise the fact that 'COVID death' numbers massively outnumber excess deaths, and does provide a comment on it. The comment it provides is as follows:
the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected
So, their argument for the discrepancy is "fewer deaths from other causes than expected". They provide no evidence or argumentation for how they come to this conclusion. In fact, in all places in which there is evidence that the cause is from misattribution, they hide this data. For example, Figure 1 on the report shows the relationship between COVID deaths and excess deaths, but conveniently hides the visual data how significantly COVID deaths outnumber excess deaths. Instead of showing this visual information they simply add a * to the value which is the reference to the quote above.
In the data which shows excess deaths due to specific causes, such as acute respiratory infections, they cannot hide this information visibly (See the chart below).
They make the following comment on the discrepancies in this data.
The trend in excess deaths for selected underlying causes of death (UCOD) is shown in Figures 47 to 58 which allow the extent of the excess to be compared over time for each cause. For each cause, the number of excess deaths without COVID-19 mentioned on the certificate (shown in the white part of the column) may be due to an increase in deaths from this cause during the period of the pandemic, but may also reflect under-reporting of deaths involving COVID-19.
I.e. they totally ignore the discrepancy. The quote above is only relevant to the first 5 data points where there is excess mortality of a specific cause, and totally ignores the 38 data points showing excess mortality having miraculously decreased. In the summer months this is expected and can be explained by the fact that many of the people who would have died with these illnesses in the summer instead died in the spring due to COVID. But the correlation in autumn and winter with the number of COVID deaths is what really needs an explanation.
An Unrecognised Miracle?
So, according to PHE we in England have a real miracle on our hands. While COVID was killing people in ever greater numbers, most other conditions suddenly improved in lockstep and without explanation. Apparently, the deeper we got into winter, the less deaths have occurred compared to previous years. We should cheering in the streets for the roughly 21,000 people who apparently did not die over the past year who normally would have done.
This is obviously a non-sensical conclusion. In fact I would argue that it is so non-sensical that it is actually criminally negligent. No rational person looking at this data can come to the conclusion that the cause of this discrepancy is due to some people miraculously getting ill less as COVID spreads more, instead of coming to the conclusion that cases of 'normal' deaths are being misattributed to being due to COVID. This correlation between COVID cases and negative excess mortality rates is clearly causal. In fact, the quality of a scientific theory is predicated on its predictive ability. The theory that non-COVID deaths are being misattributed to being due to COVID predicts that as COVID deaths decrease so will the negative excess death rate in non-COVID deaths. Let's see if my theory is validated empirically in the next months as COVID deaths drop.
What's Actually Happening
What this means is, based on this data, COVID is likely to be roughly two times less deadly than it is being presented. That is not to say it isn't deadly. COVID, like many respiratory viruses, is absolutely dangerous to many people, particularly the elderly. 'half as deadly' is not the same as 'not deadly'. But over-counting deaths and therefore misrepresenting risks and thereby making people more scared than they should be, should be a concern for us all. Especially when the perceived level of COVID risk is being used as a reason in decision-making across all levels of society right now. These decisions are impacting the everyday lives of everyone across the country and even across the world.
I find it extremely disturbing that this misrepresentation of the facts is happening. It seems highly unlikely to me that the people creating these reports are unaware of this serious discrepancy. In fact they specifically point to it multiple times but then claim a patently ridiculous cause without any evidence or even reasoning. I think it is likely that these people feel that 'the ends justify the means' and that 'providing evidence that shows COVID deaths are being over-counted will undermine efforts to control people's behaviour and therefore control the spread and save lives'. For me this is really not too far from the reasoning that caused the Chernobyl disaster. We cannot build a society on lies. We will never get out of this mess if we as a society are not getting accurate picture of what is happening, warts and all.
Next Steps
News sites like the Guardian have even published articles such as the one "UK official Covid death toll has always undercounted fatalities, analysis shows". The mainstream media is driving the fear which is driving the policy. If people were (rightly) less scared then they would be less likely to be calling for or accepting lockdown restrictions.
We need to get this into the mainstream media. We need to get this information in news that is known publish at least some articles that are not 100% pro-lockdown. I need your help doing this. I will be trying to contact whoever I can and pointing them to this article to wake up to this realisation. Please contact journalists and try to get them to pick up this story. It is extremely important!
