Bull Or Bear

I tout it all the time. The stock market. And for the long haul I think the stock market is still the best place to be to make money, grow your money, and get the best bang for your invested dollars.

That stance for me will never change, nor has it changed now.

That is, despite the fact for the past year and a half or so I have dramatically shifted my positioning in the stock market down to 40% of my entire portfolio.

Let's face it. Nowhere else are you going to have access to real money and real transactions, real commerce and tangible things. That's what business is, right? Things you can touch, feel, enjoy and spend money on.

That's where real money is made. Hands down.

So, if I am cash rich right now, how can I say that while at the same time having pulled tons of money out of the stock market? Why am I a "bear?"

Part of it is that the stock market, at least in the United States, has had an unprecedented and long bull run. We are going on more than a decade of just massive gains.

It has not stopped yet, by the way.

At the same time I just see things coming that tend to lead me to believe that a correction is in the works here. I have believed this for a while. Thus my decision to pull out a year and a half ago.

We have a major supply chain issue that is not getting better. We have a glut of unfilled jobs and there does not appear to be a great desire for people to get back to work yet. There is rampant and runaway inflation.

Something has to give.

So, being cash rich gives me at least some confidence that I can better navigate what is coming and make even more profits on it once what's coming comes. It also allows me to be more calculated in what I am actually invested in and why, and gives me a better opportunity to take advantage of bargains when they come up.

It does not mean I have stopped investing, of course. It does not mean I do not continue to add money.

It just means I take profits more frequently than I used to and I am more "in tune" with investments I feel can "weather any coming storm." It means I am more devoted to stocks that pay dividends.

It also means that more of the companies I am invested in are ones that will do well in a bad economy, which we are sort of headed towards now.

By the way, what are good "inflationary" hedges? Companies that offer products and services that everyone will need regardless of what it costs. Companies like Walmart, utility companies, cell phone companies, oil companies and the like.

I think the markets are due for a turn to the downside, and so for that reason I am a bear right now. When the bottom hits all the cash I have left on the sidelines will be the fuel to make a lot of money on the way back up.

At the same time I simply cannot be completely out.

Lead image courtesy of Pixabay, user sergeitokmakov. Stock Market Charts Trading - Free photo on Pixabay