Bitcoin is on the move, again. New low incoming?

A massive amount of Bitcoins is on the move again. This time it is looking like they are returning to exchanges? Are people just transferring back the Bitcoins a few days after withdrawing them?

The FTX aftermath, my keys my crypto

In the direct aftermath of the FTX crash, hardware wallet manufacturers like Trezor and Ledger had their sales figuratively shoot through the roof. While Trezor reported a 300% increase in sales on a week-to-week basis. Ledger reported would not be outdone and reported a record-breaking sales bot for an individual day as well as for a week.

With these newly purchased hardware wallets, people's crypto was not far behind either. This ass faith in Centralized Exchanges was, for obvious reasons, at an all-time low. And I assume people suddenly remember that old saying "not your keys, not your crypto". 

Reports of over $3 billion in crypto being withdrawn from exchanges in just a few days. And the biggest chunk of the $3 billion was a massive 134,000 $BTC. That alone accounted for around $2.2 billion at the current price of the move. 

At the same time, the data also shows that the Long Term Holder, someone who holds crypto for at least 155 days, is almost at a record low. It is currently sitting very close to 2018´s crypto winters numbers.

And now, the crypto is returning?

So far these moves have been in no way, shape, or form strange. People don't want to risk the chance of losing control of their crypto. Not with so many companies basically scamming their clients, collapsing, and causing their customers to loos their crypto. 

But what happens next is a bit strange. On November 18th Binance saw a total deposit of 138,000 Bitcoin. Of them, 59,000 was part of a depegg from the BNB smart chains $BTCB token. Basically bridged Bitcoin on the BNB chain. But I am not entirely sure about the 138,00 numbers accuracy. As other sources have reported it to be 127,351 Bitcoins in, and nearly 50,000 Bitcoins out during the day for Binance. But it looks like the 127,351 Bitcoins might have been Binance just moving Bitcoins internally.

The 59,000 Bitcoins that was depegged however have had some "strange" discrepancies that have followed them along. But first of all, they seem to indicate that there is a large number of Bitcoins being sold. As I am inclined to agree with Ki Young Ju and his reasoning that no announcement from Binance. Especially in these times, would indicate it is just customers selling and not them making any moves.

127,351 BTC moved from BTCB wallet to Binance cold wallet and BTCB resserve received 68,200 BTC from the cold wallet after 44 minutes. In total, 59,151 BTC unpegged from BTCB and flowed into Binance. -Ki Young Ju

A small typo has snuck into ErgoBTC´s tweet, it should be 59,151 BTC, and the missing amount should be 7,151

This is a really good question, so far I have not seen anyone being able to pinpoint the 7,151 Bitcoin that appear to be on the loose. But presumably, they are still on Binance, somewhere?

A look at history might tell us about the future

As I said the depegging of $BTCB tokens seems to stem from sales. These inflows of bitcoin into Binance, and the other exchanges as well, is the largest inflow of Bitcoin that has been seen since November 30 back in 2018. And two weeks after that was when Bitcoin hit its bottom. 

Bitcoin price data from 2018

Without digging into who sold back then my guess is that it was the miners that capitulated finally being forced to sell off their last reserves. And according to some cryptoquant data, the Bitcoins being moved onto Binance appear to be 6-12 months old. My assumption again is that they are belonging to miners that are being forced to sell off even more of their reserves to stay afloat.

Tweet cut off due to long picture, 8:41 AM · Nov 18, 2022

This also ties into the recent reports of mining companies doing poorly and being forced to sell off their miners o be able to pay their business expenses. Along with the few mining companies that appeared to have had more successful long-term strategies buying these miners at bargain prices. Getting ready for the next bull run. 

And that would indicate that, if true, we might see another drop in Bitcoins price in the next 2 ish weeks. My guess is that the drop most likely will fall to around $13,500 as Bitcoin historically has had some support at that level. And that would mean almost a 20% drop from the current price of around $16,500. Not fully as bad as the 40% drop that happened back in 2018.

I hope that you found this look at the recent happening with Bitcoin to be interesting and useful, even if it is me speculating at the end. I do however would like to hear what you think about all of this, were you prepared to see the return of Bitcoins to the exchanges so shortly after the mass exodus? Do you have any idea where the 7,151 Bitcoins might have gone on Binance? Or maybe you have another idea of what is in store for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

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See you on the interwebs!

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