Here’s What Bitcoin (BTC) Investors Need To Know In 2023 And 2024
Bitcoin (BTC) will have its fourth halving next year (2024).
All previous halvings created a supply shock in exchanges since the new supply of BTC is now half.
Halvings are a beacon for speculators. These “investors” enter Bitcoin (BTC) and several more cryptocurrencies months before the halving, planning to profit as prices increase.
Prices of all cryptocurrencies will rise again.
Investors (speculators) entered again in 2023 and will begin exiting in late 2024. They support this investment in several ways using aggressive marketing, social media, and hype, with top TV networks, headlines, and online publications in a frenzy mode.
We explore why this time BTC will not deliver massive returns to speculators and how this underperformance will turn the interest in other cryptocurrencies.
Ultimate greed will take place yet again.
However, the impact of the fourth Bitcoin (BTC) halving will not sustain BTC to the levels whales would have wanted.
As we previously examined each halving is different, and the fourth halving will be the last time speculation defeats utility:
The Halving Is 82% Less Effective on The Price, Each Cycle
a) 2013–2017 Top to top: $1300 to $20000: 1400% increase
b) 2017–2021 Top to top: $20000 to $69000: 245% increase.
The 2020 halving effect was 82% less than the 2016 halving.
If BTC achieves $100,000 in 2024 (or 2025), that will indicate:
c) 2021–2025 Top to top: $69,000 to $100k: ~45% increase
The difference (top to top) between b) and c) will again be 82% less (81.63%).
100k will be the next ATH for BTC to complete the arithmetic sequence.
It is not just the sequence, but logic dictates the price action of BTC.
Calculating the arithmetic sequences, we conclude that the effect of each halving is ~80% less than the previous one, which is valid since the new supply of BTC becomes less significant.
Someone might say that in case this scenario plays out, the subsequent price decline will not be as severe.
No, that’s not how the historical price action of BTC works. The drop from the new ATH is always around 75% (72–80%).
It is how the sequence works.
BTC always drops approximately 75% from its ATH each cycle. What is always lower is the new ATH since each halving has less effect on the price.
BTC will revisit 20k by 2025 or 2026, and the market will exclude BTC as its superior ruler.
BTC will lose even more market dominance, although I doubt that Ethereum has what it takes to dethrone BTC. All this infrastructure on top of Ethereum will quickly migrate to other blockchains utilizing EVM standards, or blockchains that explore smart contracts in better ways (UTXO-based).
If you want to know why all models that predicted 100k in 2021 failed, here is the reason: Scalability.
With the (2015) decision (corporate takeover) to promote sidechains like Liquid and the Lightning Network, Bitcoin developers destroyed its functionality as a currency.
The Lightning Network finds no adoption as it was yet another deception:
Speculative funds will reach their moment of realization. That will be during the 2024–2026 period, as in 2026, they will witness how much overrated and overly-appreciated BTC was.
Some of the funds entering this space (a small part) will reach the blockchains that work towards achieving Satoshi’s intentions.
The profit potential of Bitcoin (BTC) has shrunk.
Charts NEVER lie. If they seem they do, then we missed a milestone. Yet, nothing disruptive emerged from BTC for the last ten years.
Several other networks work better than BTC and ETH, and investors will realize there is more to gain from networks that work and present potential for global adoption.
By 2026 (bear market), BTC speculators and maximalists will once again be at a loss after BTC retracts to $20,000 and realize their price arguments made zero sense.
2026 is just three years from now. We will be here and see who is right about this. Bookmark this and remember it in 2025 or 2026, when everyone will be abandoning the BTC ship for blockchains that successfully deliver economic freedom to the masses.
Perhaps some folks are fantasizing BTC at $1 million, but reality is a hard pill to swallow.
Drastic changes will alter the crypto landscape.
There will be collapses of BTC/Blockstream strongholds like Tether, TRX, Grayscale, Binance, and other ridiculous financial establishments vying for control of who gets to pump and who doesn’t.
The beginning of 2025 will mark the end of the era of Bitcoin nonsense.
If you want to keep your overpriced BTC as a collectible, ride it down to $1k and lower. When the market truly decides, it will not be sunshine and roses.
Speculation will end because the price needs to hold onto something. BTC has nothing to show. No vision, no scalability, and no use case.
Even speculators will discover blockchains that work towards global adoption, upholding censorship resistance and disruptive potential.
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