Bitcoin: The End Of An Era (Documentary)
With this 15-minute documentary, we’ll unravel the essentials of Bitcoin, including insights into the potential for a new bull run, the premise and original value proposition, and the contrasting old and new narratives.
Join us as we delve into Bitcoin’s past, present, and potential future trajectory.
Get ready to explore and gain insights into Bitcoin’s evolution and the lost potential to impact commerce and the global financial landscape.
The End Of An Era
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Transcript:
A new Bitcoin cycle is set to begin.
The expectations suggest that the price will increase but actually what we should be considering is that this time, will be the last.
The 15-year period of Bitcoin extreme speculation is about to come to an end.
The halving sequence will play out one final time, with one final pump.
The possibility of a new cryptocurrency bull run in 2024 is reasonable, considering the favorable news from finance, but the halving is the crucial event of the year.
The fourth halving can propel Bitcoin to $100k, yet, price predictions online often exaggerate, with experts lately just throwing out random numbers.
Still, not even a price of 100,000 dollars can save Bitcoin BTC from falling into obscurity.
“Hodl”, “Diamond hands”, and dreams of early retirement by “staking sats” will prove even weaker than fantasies of living in citadels or a “swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom“.
During 2021, investors in BTC had also set a goal of reaching $100,000.
And they failed.
Bitcoin touched $70,000 twice and entered a lengthy bear market, dropping to $15000 in 2022.
This is a price we can’t ignore, since for the first time in its 15-year history Bitcoin dropped to price levels of a previous cycle, in this occasion, the 2017 prices.
These two distinct details define Bitcoin’s price action and describe future trends.
And the outlook is not promising.
While a large number of variables can nullify predictions and bring an outcome entirely different than what we expect, the chart also indicates a symptom Bitcoin is facing.
Fatigue.
Bitcoin is out of mana.
Think long term and question everything from all sides. Why would any institution want to park money in ETFs and experience the magnificent high volatility and extreme speculation?
It makes no sense.
Why would fund managers want to invest pension or other funds in BTC?
Similarly to what they were doing in 2008, when they were buying subprime mortgages en masse, they have no idea what they are doing.
There are several reasons BTC failed to achieve $100k in 2021 and dropped again to 2017 levels. Limitations in the current design forced Bitcoin out of payments and the narrative changed into one favorable to the legacy finance.
No more revolution, no more disruption, just a useless pointless store of value for market forces to manipulate.
The price recovered in 2023 and now hovers around $40,000. A recovery was expected but the signs of fatigue are there. Fatigue caused by a lack of purpose.
Analysts know about the reduced potential, and despite the institutional hype, the BTC whales, and maximalists , this time together with CEOs and institutional funds are attempting to recreate the “pump” for one last time.
The chart points to $100,000 and Bitcoin could reach that price only if everything goes as planned and no black swan events emerge to crash the prices to the Rai stones Age.
And still, $100k will not be a success.
It will be a massive failure, pointing to a dark future.
In all of the previous times, a lengthy bear market ensued, with the price dropping significantly.
The price in 2025 and 2026 could retrace below $20k, or even lower, depending on losses investors suffered and the possible loss of confidence of long-term investors.
At $100,000 Bitcoin will stand at a price just 45% higher than the previous all-time high.
A performance weaker than 2021 will make everyone realize this was the last time the halving mattered, and possibly Bitcoin has reached the end of its cycle.
Scarcity alone is irrelevant when the disruptive potential that brought BTC there has already evaporated.
This was an early chart from 2014 that explored the price under the premise of global adoption of Bitcoin, the peer-to-peer electronic Cash system.
Today, the BTC version of Bitcoin does not serve commerce or peer-to-peer cash. For most of the BTC maximalists, this is clear.
Saylor also made it entirely clear several years later.
The new narrative Novogratz was talking about is an asset that acts as a store of value and nothing else.
The BTC version of Bitcoin has nothing to do with commerce, and will never be used as such, since it was decided once and for all it will never scale.
Both this chart and stock-to-flow disregarded the fact that Bitcoin BTC canceled its disruptive features and sold out to the banks and the legacy financial establishment.
Until 2017 Bitcoin was gaining momentum as an alternative to the monetary forces that only brought disasters to economies.
Bitcoin is programmable money, permissionless, censorship-resistant, and person-to-person, with no trusted intermediaries.
And still, the BTC maximalists brought all trusted intermediaries back, by promoting Custodial Lightning as a scalability solution, effectively reversing the on-chain adoption and condemning Bitcoin’s future.
The lack of scalability caused all of the price models to fail, as BTC underperformed in what used to be the adoption race.
Meanwhile, fiat money is also evolving, and with CBDCs fiat currencies will provide Central Banks control and enforcement.
Surely you must have realized by now that CBDCs are all about that.
The cycle will repeat one more time.
Depending on circumstances beyond our control, for example, a Tether failure, we might also witness the demise of Bitcoin BTC or the slow disassociation of anyone involved.
What accomplishments can BTC showcase today? An increased adoption and a growing user base? The use case seems to be driven solely by speculation.
The majority of BTC holders aim to retain it as an investment on a centralized exchange, contributing to the speculative nature of it all. It’s akin to a global casino, or perhaps even worse.
Bitcoin (BTC) envisions a future of permanent on-chain high fees and the Lightning Network to increase adoption in payments. However, not even Custodial Lightning appears to be a viable solution.
Lightning was always a distraction, a network prone to centralization and censorship.
Institutional speculation was a new narrative that materialized in 2020, with Michael Saylor making his comeback in Bitcoin, aiming to prove that BTC belongs in the world of finance.
Everyone is simply speculating on the price of a digital asset that does not work as it initially intended, and its entire current community does not want it to work either.
That might remind you of several financial schemes that look for new investors so the previous ones can profit, and use them as their exit liquidity.
What purpose does Bitcoin BTC serve?
The primary use case was censorship resistance.
However, with fees constantly on the rise, BTC has become a censorship-resistant tool accessible only to the wealthy 1%.
The initial value proposition was to challenge the legacy financial system, enabling peer-to-peer transactions. Yet, with the soaring fees, Bitcoin now not only excludes those living on less than $2 a day but effectively the 99% of the world.
Why would institutions or billionaires have any interest in Bitcoin? They already own the banking system, which works flawlessly for them. So, why replace it?
They didn’t need Bitcoin, but they still had to stop it early on.
You probably see the conclusion here: it was always business as usual.
When a new and innovative competitor enters the market, corporations, or in this case, finance, will attempt to buy them out or use aggressive tactics to eliminate them.
With Bitcoin being decentralized, shutting down the network or even hunting down participants, as the entertainment industry did with P2P file-sharing platforms a few years ago, was not possible.
Bitcoin had to fall from within.
The deal struck was integration into finance, and a new narrative emerged.
Today, the only thing that seems to matter is how high the price can go.
But without the revolutionary spirit and global adoption potential, the price can only go this far.
Cover on Pixabay (modified)
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