Mankind is naturally curious, we have been searching for the reason behind any event since the beginning of civilization. One phenomenon results in another, which is called 'causality ' in philosophy by establishing a 'cause and effect' relationship between the two . Mankind has relied on this causality to interpret its past and present. Again, the effects of past and present events on the future are also explained through causality.

As the rational intellect of mankind has improved, so has the concept of causality. Thus it has become our instinct to search for reasons in any matter and to make decisions accordingly. It has therefore become an important concept in science, mathematics, philosophy, statistics and social sciences. But for ordinary people, it is difficult to think of 'causality' in terms of mathematics and philosophy. Because, it is not possible for everyone to acquire the knowledge and skills required for this. Therefore, the 'causality' that we apply in our daily life is in many cases erroneous. 

However, such mistakes have been made by scientists and researchers for a long time and it has been possible to identify them in subsequent studies. When a cause is misidentified, it is called 'false cause fallacy'. Falsehood is a variety of erroneous arguments that do not catch the eye. False Cause False is different.

There can be different relationships between any two events. This relationship can often be a 'cause and effect' relationship. Again, many times it can be just a coincidence. Such a relationship is called ' correlation '. Seeing such a correlation, there is a causal relationship between them, that is, it is a logical mistake to conclude that one is happening for the other.

There may be a causal relationship between them, but enough research has to be done to reach such a conclusion. Only judging the relationship and reaching a conclusion will create an irrationality. Because, in any situation, there are many more elements besides correlation. For example: the flow of events i.e., what happened after an event, ‘because the event’ follows a believable mechanism to create a ‘fruit event’. Moreover, there is not only one factor behind many events, there is a complex insertion of many factors. Therefore, it is not possible to explain the reason behind an event with correlation alone. 

There may be several types of relationship between the two events ‘a’ and ‘b’. For example: 'B' happened because of 'K', 'A' happened because of 'K', both 'A' and 'B' happened because of a different event 'G'. Whether 'a' and 'b' are due to each other or there is no connection between 'a' and 'b', the correlation between them is just a coincidence. So, even with a large amount of data, if there is enough correlation between the two events, it would be wrong to make a hasty decision. Let's look at some examples.

There was a reason catechu ( reverse causality )

In this fallacy, the order of 'cause and effect' is reversed. That is, ‘cause events’ are seen as ‘fruit events’ and ‘results’ as ‘causes’. Observations have shown that those with higher annual incomes are happier. From this it is easy to conclude that higher incomes make them happier in life. But, happy people can easily concentrate on anything. As a result, they are faster than anyone else in creating any skill. Such skills make it easier for them to earn more than others. Therefore, higher income is not the reason for happiness, but the path to higher income is easier for happy people.

Both a and b are due to g (the common-causal variable)

In this fallacy it is assumed that ‘a’ is caused by the event ‘b’ where ‘a’ and ‘b’ are both different results of an event ‘g’. Many times the ‘c’ phenomenon is not easily found. For this reason, people generally have little idea about this phenomenon. 

A study from the University of Pennsylvania found that young children who have lights on during sleep are more likely to have myopia (short-sightedness, seeing near objects but not seeing distant objects). From here, the researchers concluded that sleeping with a light on was one of the reasons for myopia. The results of the study were later published in a 1999 issue of the journal Nature. At the time the study received quite good coverage through the news.

A later study from Ohio State University found that mothers or fathers who had myopia were more likely to have children with the disease. Again, parents with myopia have a habit of keeping the lights on in their children's rooms. Thus, parental myopia simultaneously acts as a way to keep the lights on in their children's room and to cause children to develop myopia. Research from the University of Pennsylvania failed to accurately determine this cause.

Single cause fallacy

In most cases, there are many reasons behind a particular event. But ordinary people instinctively try to understand the reasons much simpler. As a result, they find the only reason behind the events. This is called ' single cause fallacy '. Incidentally, a passage from the famous Russian author Leo Tolstoy's novel 'War and Peace' can be mentioned. He described the complexities of simple events, such as the simple fact that an apple fell to the ground.

When an apple has ripened and falls, why does it fall? Because of its attraction to the earth, because its stalk withers, because it is dried by the sun, because it grows heavier, because the wind shakes it, or because the boy standing below wants to eat it?

Nothing is the cause. All this is only the coincidence of conditions in which all vital organic and elemental events occur. And the botanist who finds that the apple falls because the cellular tissue decays and so forth is equally right with the child who stands under the tree and says the apple fell because he wanted to eat it and prayed for it.

As the famous philosopher Thomas Hobbes has pointed out, man can perceive only the most direct cause. This can be explained by evolutionary psychology. Our mind remembers and values ​​the things that we can use to our advantage. Things that are out of our control, even if they are more important, we can't remember.

Explaining the example of Tolstoy's apple, it can be said that the elements that were fixed and beyond our ability to change were not what our ancestors thought at the time of analysis. Such as: gravity. But variables like the flow of air, which are much more likely to be used conveniently, are just some of the reasons our brains try to find the cause. Thus many important elements we cannot identify. This kind of evolutionary thinking has weakened our scientific reasoning. 

Post Hawk Fallacy

As a result of one event after another, establishing the first as the cause of the second is another kind of fallacy, called ' post hawk fallacy '. Here, too, the logical key problem is the attempt to establish an unproven analogy between correlation and causation. Let's give a famous example .

After the Brazilian football emperor gifted a certain jersey to a fan, there was some ebb in his performance. Later, his performance improved again after he took back the jersey. This is why the gift of the jersey was claimed in many places as the reason for his poor performance. Similarly, taking back the jersey was seen as a reason for the performance to be okay. But later it was found out that the returned jersey was fake.

Post-hoc falciparum is found in many cases of scientific research. For example, for a long time, the cause of malaria could not be found. Observations have shown that people who spend too much time outside at night are more likely to develop malaria. After that, the posthawk argument was conceived, that night air is the cause of malaria. Only the skepticism of some scientists and their many experiments later proved the idea wrong. Today we all know that Anopheles mosquitoes spread malaria.

Due to posthawk reasoning, many arguments often turn into 'single cause fallacies'. However, since the argument is not completely false, it is called 'inflated causality'. Here are some examples: 

The reason behind World War II was Hitler's hatred of Jews. 

John F. Kennedy lost the presidential election to Richard Nixon only as a result of winning the television debate.

The civil war in the United States was caused by slavery organizations.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

This fallacy is often called ' clustering illusion '. It is named after a fictional event. A gunman randomly fired something at the wall of a warehouse. He then drew the target at the point where his shots hit the hardest. It is noteworthy that the gunman did not fire along this target but if someone from outside came and saw it, he would think that that was his target and he was able to aim nicely. Thus it is very easy to come to the wrong conclusion.

When differences in data are avoided, but similarities are emphasized, this leads to erroneous conclusions. In the real world, lumbering elephants are exposed by the aggression of speeding midgets. Not all data have similarities or patterns. But with this fallacy, even in such random data, the pattern is forced out. Let's give an example.

A survey was conducted in Sweden on whether electric power lines pose any health risks . They conducted the survey around 300 meters of the high voltage line for 25 years. Their observations show that those who live closest to the power line can have up to four times the childhood leukemia. But, they kept an eye on 600 diseases. Even if one of the diseases on this list is accidentally caught in those areas, the survey will show that there are health risks. Coincidentally, there is a high probability of any one of these diseases. Thus, it is very normal for the survey results to be wrong. Such a thing is called 'Multiple Comparison Problem'. Swedish researchers were wrong in designing the survey. Subsequent studies have rejected the claim that the power line has been linked to childhood leukemia.Did.

Association Fallacy

If there is any resemblance between two persons or two events, forcing them to resemble something else is called ' association fallacy '. Let me explain a little. 

'A' is included in 'B'. 

Again, 'A' is included in 'C'. 

Therefore, all 'B' and 'C' are the same. 

It would be easier to understand the fallacy between these arguments if expressed through a vein diagram.

Here, 'A' is the common part of 'B' and 'C' sets. But the range of both 'B' and 'C' is much larger than 'A'. And they are different in those places. Their similarity is maintained only within the range of 'A'.

There are two common forms of association fallacy. One is 'guilt by association' and the other is 'honor by association'. Being a very common example of gilt by association.

Tahmid is talented.

Tahmid left elephant.

Left-handed people are talented.

On the other hand, the most prevalent of the Honor Buy Association is seen in the advertising media. Usually, any product is advertised through famous celebrities or attractive models. There they sing the praises of the product. The popularity of such celebrities or the general public's attraction to models also makes the product look good in quality. People generally think that they are telling the truth.

False cause fallacy weakens our rational thinking. Our perception of the real world becomes much more artificial. Therefore, we should be aware of this fallacy in any thought and reasoning.