Dropping The Bomb: Terra's $LUNA Will Never Get Back To $1.00 (And Above).

The recent 20-50% price crash during the first 2 weeks of May 2022 in the crypto market was also a ripple effect Terra made in order to save their failed algorithmic stablecoin $UST. In summary, and according to analytics, most (if not all) of the Bitcoin reserves of Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) was used to counter the depegging stablecoin. BTCs were sold in the open market causing to shake the price of BTC and the fear from people that "there's more into it" for Bitcoin that leads to a sell-off and Bitcoin plummeted to $26,000 while the rest and most of cryptocurrencies in the market losses around -50% in estimation as it correlates with $BTC and affected by FUDs.

Holders of $LUNA was really or totally devastated to see it drops -99% in 2 consecutive days. It was a total wreck that even dip buyers who taught it was already the bottom to see $LUNA at $0.1 got wrecked when it dropped to a low of $0.00006. But still, many people believe that TerraLuna can get back from this tragedy.

Hopium From Dip Buyers And Solid Holders Of $LUNA.

Many people concluded that $LUNA could be the easiest catch for financial freedom as they see it to still have the potential of getting back to at least $1.00.

From the recent all-time low $LUNA created, it rose by 20,000% after the CEO of TerraLuna announces a recovery plan and after $LUNA gets listed back in Binance.

Many people got the opportunity to buy it at the lowest and now up so much from their initial buys and the way $LUNA's price performed in the last 2 days, people are creating hopium that the price of $1.00 for $LUNA is still achievable without knowing what can it cost.

Supply and market cap of $LUNA.

$LUNA's circulating supply was just over 400 million before the crashed and most people doesn't know that TerraLuna has the capabilities to mint more tokens if they needed to. And indeed they did when $UST crashed and depegged from $1.00.

In order to repeg $UST, trillions of $LUNA were minted causing for the price of $LUNA to crash and losses its market cap.

From just over 400 million, the current supply of $LUNA is now over 6.5 trillion tokens. If that's not clear yet, that was 1000x more tokens that were minted and added to its circulation.

As of this writing, the current price of $LUNA is $0.00033 with almost $2 billion in its market cap.

The supply of $LUNA has been steady on 6.5 trillion after TerraLuna and Binance communicated. And according to the tweet of CZ, CEO of Binance, that there will be no more minting of tokens that can hurt the price of $LUNA even more. Still, this doesn't assure everyone that TerraLuna will not mint new tokens again as it has the power to do so anytime.

Calculation and why $LUNA can't (or easily) reach $1.00 again.

This is a read purely with no intentions of sugarcoating. But $LUNA reaching $1.00 is very impossible with its current supply. It might not get to even $0.10 and here's why.

Let make everything estimated to avoid more confusion:

The current supply of $LUNA is at 6.5 trillion tokens while its current market cap is almost $2 billion.

Formula:

MarketCap = Supply x Price.

Supply is 6.5 trillion while predicted Price is $1.00

MarketCap = 6.5 trillion x $1.00

MarketCap = $6.5 trillion.

What does this mean?

Is ever $LUNA gets back to $1.00, its market cap will be at $6.5 trillion - a market cap that will be over 6 times than Bitcoin. Even if $LUNA gets back to just $0.10, it will still have a market cap of $650 billion which higher that Bitcoin's market cap that is just currently at $550 billion.

To make it short, it's very much unlikely to happen even if TerraLuna will burn $LUNA in the circulation, why?

It's very impossible for the project to spend billions of billions of money just to burn a portion of supply of $LUNA while the trust and confidence from its investors has already totally broken. It will be huge risk for TerraLuna and Do Kwon, CEO of TerraLuna, to spend so much money for the project while its future success is so translucent.

Final Words.

TerraLuna made a foundation and a good contribution to the crypto market but seeing it falls from the top is totally heartbreaking especially for the investors of the project. Currently, the future of TerraLuna is unsure and still no sign of a great recovery for the project.