Meta’s Threads off to a good start. Metaverse swapped for the Fediverse.
It has been approximately two weeks since Meta announced Instagram Threads — a new platform linked to Instagram that is poised to compete with Twitter. The platform has already managed to amass 150 million users and it’s on track to reach an impressive milestone of 200 million.
“Way beyond our expectations,” Mark Zuckerberg reacted in a post.
His disbelief might be genuine. These numbers look very promising for Meta with millions of Twitter users jumping ship en masse and switching to Threads. Some are switching as a result of dissatisfaction with (among other issues) Twitter’s lacklustre performance in recent months, the decision to limit the number of Tweets users can see in a single session and putting Tweetdeck behind a paywall. Some are switching in search of a different atmosphere and mood that would be more reminiscent of how they perceived Twitter before its takeover in 2022. Sometimes it’s both.
Then there are large numbers of Instagram users that never used Twitter and are simply riding the momentum and joining out of curiosity, excitement, for exposure or because “why not?” After all, there’s almost no setup required — just download the app and sync it with your IG account. All your follows are immediately imported, and since a notable segment of Instagram users is already t̶w̶e̶e̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ threading, the algorithm has an easy time serving some highly compelling content right from the start. This immediately gives Threads the critical mass and familiarity that other alternatives lacked while preserving its distinct take on text-based social media.
In terms of design, Threads appears to be a copy of Twitter, which is not surprising. All the other Twitter competitors, Bluesky, Mastodon, Substack Notes — look nearly identical as well.
Twitter and its competitors [Source: Andy Allen]
This is a conscious decision for all those developers. Design is supposed to be simple and mimic Twitter so that there is no learning curve or confusion.
Hot on the heels of Threads’ success is Meta’s new buzzword and a new grand plan: the Fediverse. What exactly is the Fediverse? In short, it’s an ecosystem similar to the Metaverse — only instead of persistent VR and AR worlds, it’s a persistent, interconnected, interoperable collection of social networks. For that, Meta will use the ActivityPub protocol (the same used for Mastodon and WordPress).
Artistic impression of the Fediverse
This, in theory, should allow users to cross-post and cross-communicate, as well as avoid censorship or de-platforming. Your friends from Mastodon or Wordpress would be able to follow you on Threads without having to create a separate account and vice versa. Why a centralized giant such as Meta would put so much emphasis on services that, in principle, help undermine its power is not entirely clear yet. Perhaps it’s part of their Web3 strategy or a way to add value by crafting a bigger and more compelling vision than just being a “successful Twitter clone”. No timeline has been given in regards to ActivityPub integration, so we can only speculate.
It’s entirely possible that users who decide to join Threads will be bound to Meta’s instances, which can then be configured however the company pleases. Moderation could remain in Meta’s control, and if coupled with full ownership of users’ posts and their instance identity, the decision to make Threads part of the Fediverse might not be as risky as it seems.
For now, Metaverse and XR are being completely left out. There is no way to log into Threads using the once-upon-a-time fanfared Meta accounts (required for all Meta Quest and Quest Pro virtual reality headsets). If that ever changes, it will most likely be through some kind of VR app. Instagram is already available on the Quest so we might expect something similar for Threads.
While this may seem worrying, it’s too early to predict how the success of Threads will impact Meta’s XR strategy. Right now, Meta’s priority is on capturing the growing momentum, making sure it doesn’t fizzle out, while at the same time presenting a kind of grander, long-haul vision for the product in the form of the Fediverse.
Just a few days ago, Yahoo reported that Threads’ average daily usage dropped from twenty-one minutes to six but at the same time, new users continued pouring in, with India leading in downloads. It’s also worth noting that Threads is not available in the European Union due to regulatory and privacy concerns. But even if it were to launch in Europe soon, rumors of Twitter’s death are greatly exaggerated. Its popularity will almost certainly remain substantial.
[24 Jul: This article was originally published citing the figure of 70 million users joining within the first 48 hours. I have since updated the article to include additional data and information to provide a more up to date view of the platform’s rapid user growth during this initial period.]
