Forget 2022, Democrats May Have Problems For 2024

Originally published on Publish0x (with a minor addition).

Introduction: The Incumbent Disadvantage

Historically in the US, the party that wins the executive branch will experience a reversal in the legislative branch. This happened to the Democratic Party in 1994 where the Republicans flipped both the House and Senate. In 2006, under George W. Bush’s second term, the Democrats flipped the House and tied in the Senate. In 2010, the Republicans gained a whopping 63 seats in the House thanks to the Tea Party movement. Lastly, in 2018, the Democrats flipped the House under Trump’s watch though the Republicans actually gained two seats in the Senate.

It is speculated that the Republican Party will be able to flip both chambers of Congress due to the energy factor on their side. The Washington Post, for instance, believes that the a Republican flip in the House is a “lock” though the Senate will be a tougher journey.

There are some signs from the “off-season” elections that suggest the Republicans will make serious gains in the legislature, too. For instance, Javier Villalobos won the mayoral election in McAllen, Texas, a border town that used to be a safe Democrat stronghold (more on that here). And it’s not just McAllen, but the other border towns exhibited a substantial shift towards the right during the 2020 election, suggesting that Trump and the Republicans made huge gains with Hispanic voters.

However, I want to turn the attention to 2024 because there has been multiple significant developments that the Democrats may struggle that year, too.

Joe Biden's Dropping Approval

As of the most recent aggregate on RealClear Politics, not only is Joe Biden’s approval rating at its lowest since the aggregation began, his disapproval rating is also at its highest. In my past articles, I’ve said to take polls with a grain of salt. While we cannot say for sure if that’s exactly how high Biden’s approval and disapproval ratings are, we can at least judge from the movement assuming that the individuals polls have not drastically changed their methodologies. You can see from this graph that overall, Biden’s approval rating is dropping and his disapproval rating is rising.

If this trend continues, then that does not bode well for his reelection prospects if he wants to run for a second term. There’s not a singular reason why this is happening, but his approval rating appears to be affected by his handling of the southern border crisis (-12.8% margin on RCP) that is still ongoing and how he has been handling the economy (+1.8% margin). Inflation has been rising at a pretty high rate and even then, Biden still wants to sign more huge spending bills.

Even Biden’s strongest suit, his approval rating on his handling of COVID-19, is gradually waning. While it appears that he’s doing a stellar job with a +15.6% spread, that margin used to be much larger. For instance, the previous Economist/YouGov polls had his COVID-19 approval rating margin in the mid to high teens, but the latest one is in the low teens at +12%. The Hill/Harris used to consistently have Biden’s spread in the mid +30’s, but the spread has fallen to a +24% margin. As cases will presumably fall over time, COVID-19 will play less of a factor into Biden's overall appeal.

And remember, Biden has only been in office for about 7 months. Could he turn things around in 15 months by the mid-term elections? It’s possible, but I just haven’t seen many signs that he can.

Kamala Harris's Overall Disapproval (Potentially)

“Well, Biden won’t run for reelection. That’s why Kamala Harris is there”, you may say. Unfortunately, as I already mentioned in one of my articles, she’s likely even worse than Biden. A few months after that article, I made another writeup explaining how Harris was already crumbling while not even being Vice President for a year. that ruffled some of the readers’ feathers, but don’t take my word for it. Check out RealClear Politics’ aggregate.

Well, then... that's um, yikes...

Yes, you are seeing that correctly. Harris’s disapproval rating is actually higher than her approval rating. But as I mentioned earlier with Biden’s ratings, we don’t really know what her actual ratings are. That said, we can see from previous polls that there is an overall negative trend. From January 20 to the beginning of June, Harris maintained a positive margin. However, that shrank overtime and a week into June, her disapproval ratings began to overtake her approval ratings.

There are multiple reasons that have contributed to her fall. The biggest elephant in the room is undoubtedly how she has handled (or rather, not handled) the border crisis. Whenever she would be asked if she would visit the border, she would laugh nervously or try to side step the topic. The most she has done was visiting El Paso, but she never went to the actual border nor did she visit the other border towns.

Not only that, but it was revealed that Harris's office is a toxic work environment, rife with discord and lacking in self-accountability.

So, if not Harris, then who else? Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor that won an Emmy for how he handled COVID-19 in his state? Well....

Andrew Cuomo Resigns

At one point, Andrew Cuomo was considered one of the frontrunners for the upcoming 2024 general election, sometimes even polling ahead of Kamala Harris. And with the media being extremely effusive over how he handled COVID-19, it seemed that he would be the strongest candidate for the Democratic ticket. Biden praised him; Trevor Noah praised him; Stephen Colbert praised him; Jimmy Fallon praised him; and many others did, too.

So by the mainstream media's logic, since Cuomo is the antithesis of Trump, is the media admitting that Trump is not a sexual predator? 🤔

Yep, Cuomo has resigned amid a very damning report on his sexual harassment. Actually, he initially refused to step down after major Democrat leaders like Biden and Nanci Pelosi told him to. But since he was going to be impeached and would likely get convicted, I guess he wanted to keep his pension while he can.

To be quite honest, I don't think the sexual harassment scandal is the real reason for his downfall. This is not to diminish what the investigation concluded, but Cuomo is known to be very handsy with his female employees, touching their faces or their legs. There was also an old video where he really insisted a female reporter to eat a giant sausage.

Whenever these things were pointed, however, the overall response was of the "So what?" or "I don't see how this is a big deal" kind. Cuomo had a pattern of inappropriateness with women and apparently, it was a mistake to not looking further into it sooner. This is why I don't find the sexual harassment scandal to be the actual reason for Cuomo's downfall.

In case you didn't know, Cuomo and other state governors like Gretchen Whitmer (Michican) and Tom Wolf (Pennsylvania) thought it was a fantastic idea to send COVID-infected patients to nursing homes. It turned out that it was a horrible idea as many of the elderly died as a result of COVID-19 or other reasons such as isolation. In Cuomo's case, not only was the death count high, but it was also under-reported. According to the Wall Street Journal in February 2021:

State officials now say more than 15,000 residents of nursing homes and assisted-living and adult-care facilities were confirmed or presumed to have succumbed to the coronavirus since March of last year—a tally that is around 50% higher than earlier figures released by the state. For months, the state didn’t answer requests from lawmakers and journalists asking for the number of facility residents who died in hospitals.

Initially labelled as an exemplary leader in the face of COVID-19, it turned out Cuomo handled the virus poorly and was not transparent with the nursing home numbers. As stated in the WSJ article, his poll numbers substantially dropped as a result. This is just a hunch, but I believe this was his "real" sin and the sexual harassment scandal was a conveniently timed straw that broke the camel's back even though his inappropriate behavior is well-documented.

Whether that's true or not, fact of the matter is his prospects for a 2024 run are pretty much ruined.

Closing Thoughts

With the way things are going now, I think the Democrats will not just have a hard time in the mid-terms, but also 2024. Unless Biden can turn things around with issues like inflation, out-of-control government spending, and the border crisis, his approval will keep falling. Based on the RealClear Politics' latest numbers on Kamala Harris, I think she's a lost cause and is an albatross to the Democratic Party. Andrew Cuomo used to be looked at as "the guy" for 2024 considering his popularity (well, until the nursing home scandal came to light) and the media's sycophancy, but not any more.

From what it looks like, there isn't any other potential Democrat candidate that has as much popularity and pull as the aforementioned three above.

Oh, and California governor Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election and he is absolutely stressed out of his mind.