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EDIT: Want to know the aftermath? check out the update article:
https://read.cash/@Kuntach/update-trumpwin-token-was-undervalued-0a273d6a
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What's the TRUMPWIN token all about?
Offered by the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, the TRUMPWIN token(and its counterpart the TRUMPLOSE token) is an ERC-20 token that is basically a bet on whether or not Donald J. Trump will win the upcoming November 3rd US Presidential Election.
The principle is pretty easy to understand: buy 1 TRUMPWIN token now (trending between 0.33 to 0.34USD) if you think Trump will get reelected.
If on Nov. 3rd Trump gets 270 or more Electoral College votes and gets reelected , you'll then be able to redeem 1USD per TRUMPWIN token on FTX.
You'll end up winning 1USD / 0.34USD = 2.94 times your initial stake.
The actual price of 0.34USD is supposed to reflect the winning probability of the President. Now that's where I think there's value to be found.
Predicting an election outcome using polls has its limitations
Generally, the only reliable way of gauging the results of the US Election is through combining the results of major polling campaigns.
Now, remember the 2016 election where, despite polls giving Hillary Clinton winning with a comfortable margin, Donald Trump shocked the entire World by getting elected.
Could it be that polls are this year once again far from the truth?
Election 2016 vs. Election 2020 compared
Let's now compare the actual election race with the 2016 one and see if some aspects could hint greater chances of winning for Trump.
Rallies
While Hillary Clinton could count on a lot of popular support and gather great crowds at rallies, Joe Biden does not benefits from the same enthusiasm.
In fact, while Joe Biden does 1 rally per day, generally "drive-in" rallies where the attendance (250 people at best) is staying in their cars due to Covid-19 social distancing rules, Donald Trump is campaigning in front of much bigger crowds, 3 times per day and in differents States (Swing States in particular).
Debates
While in 2016 the 3 debates where pretty much even, the debates of this election seem to have been more decisive.
The vice-presidential debate and the second debate especially showed a pretty clear Republican win. In the last debate Joe Biden declared among other things that he would enforce an unpopular US-wide 3 months Lockdown to get rid of Covid-19 and that under his leadership the US would "transition from fossil fuel", which will not please voters of Swing States relying a lot on the oil industry like Texas or Pennsylvania.
Health issues
No other election will oppose 2 candidates that old (Trump is 74 and Biden 78). This issue was already a subject of concerns in 2016.
While Donald Trump shows he has the mojo to campaign at a steady pace, the same cannot be said for Joe Biden.
His detractors blame him for "staying in his basement" and challenge his mental health, suggesting some of the gaffes he did on stage lately were early warning signs of Dementia.
He stated multiple times that he was running for the "US Senate", and he lately referred to Donald Trump as "George W. Bush", among other things.
Admitting that some undecided voters might dislike Donald Trump's character, one could argue they will none of the less prefer him over a candidate with supposedly deprived cognitive faculties.
The New York Post Scandal
Since mid-October, the Trump Campaign has brought up a scandal published in the New York Post in order to depict Joe Biden as a corrupt man.
"On October 14, 2020, the New York Post ran a story showing a screenshot of an alleged email from a top adviser to Ukrainian energy company Burisma to Biden's son Hunter, thanking him for the supposed opportunity to meet his father. The article alleges that this supports claims that Biden used his political power to benefit his son Hunter in business dealings with Ukraine.[224] The Post's source was Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who says he got the data from the hard drive of a laptop allegedly dropped off at a repair shop in April 2019." Source Wikipedia
Brought up by Donald Trump during the second debate and during his rallies, this story, although not much covered by TV stations in the US tarnished the Democratic candidate reputation.
To sum up
Contrary to what polling suggest, signs of Joe Biden's popularity are not necessarily obvious.
His campaign isn't very popular, apparently far less than Hillary in 2016 and some concerns exist about his health and prior dealings, which could in the end cost him a lot of undecided votes.
On the other hand, the popularity of Donald Trump doesn't seem to have changed dramatically (like him or hate him), and if anything, his rally show the bigger popular enthusiasm.
This election, far from being a done deal for both candidates, suggests a the end of the day a thin winning margin, probably closer to a 50% - 50% than a 33% - 66% winning probability.
With that said, it appears that the price of the TRUMPWIN token is undervalued and should be closer to 0.5 USD, which is 50% more than the actual price.
Disclaimer
I do not hold any TRUMPWIN or TRUMPLOSE token and do not encourage taking position on either of the token. I'm just interested in politics and crypto and wanted to show my opinion...
Do your own research before investing in any financial product!
More infos about FTX's Trump Win or Lose Tokens
Image source
TRUMPWIN logo: https://ftx.com/static/media/trumphappy.055aa6c3.svg
I’ve buy both just for fun nice article :)