Risk & Probability Of Outcomes

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3 years ago

I started a new series where I'm documenting my journey of answering the question of "Is it possible to make consistent money from a crypto casino?" You can read the first article here.

Before I get into the update, let me share how to get started if you want to try this out for yourself. When you create your account on luckyfish.io, send a couple of messages in the chat, then collect the DOGE faucet. Instead of 1 DOGE, you'll receive 3.3 DOGE. This is what you're going to use to test strategies before committing your own money.

Now for my first update. I want to share the approach I'm taking with the Dice Classic game on luckyfish.io. Previously I mentioned the Martingale Strategy, and in my research, I found another strategy that proved to be more profitable.

More losses equal bigger wins

The unique aspect of this strategy is that the more consecutive losses you have, the more profit you will eventually make. However, like any form of gambling, there are risks. Enough consecutive losses and all your money are gone.

Notice the big increase after the dip

So to figure this problem out, I used the DOGE I collected through the faucet and experimented. How many consecutive losses could I handle before going bust? It turned out getting 20 consecutive losses was the magic number. The probability of this happening is 0.018% (if my math is correct).

Quick story about the painful way I learned this lesson.

I manage to turn the 3.3 DOGE into over 2000 DOGE....twice. And both times, 20 consecutive losses wiped it all out.

Here was my new approach. If I could make it so it would take 25 consecutive losses, then I would have decreased the probability of outcome even more (down to 0.0021%), while reducing my risk.

Now that I've settled on my strategy, it's time to see if it works. Make sure to follow for more updates as they come.

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3 years ago

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