Discovering the price of BCH according to BTC

May 13, 2022. No. 243

BCH has lost value, to the point of being 95% below its All-Time High (ATH) of $4,355.62 on December 20, 2017, 4.5 years ago. The All-Time Low (ATL) on the other hand is $75.08 on December 15, 2018, just one year after its ATH crashed. Who bought just at that moment, is still over 160%. It's hard to imagine how it has fallen so far, especially for investors who have been with BCH from the start. In my case, I entered in September 2021 when the price was around $500. The most I've seen BCH reach was $730 in November 2021, but by that date, I still didn't have 1 BCH in my wallet, I literally had very little, so I barely remember that feeling. I would never think that at least for now I would not see those levels for a few long months. It's time to wait and HOLD. Now, 3.3 BCH after just 8 months, I am super grateful to all of read.cash, its creators, and its founders. Actually, with all those who make this dream possible that we are part of.

It's not about being a fan of a currency, but it's called loyalty and understanding that its time will come again at some point in the future. Imagine going back to the ATH, my 3.3 BCH would be worth 3.3 * 4355.62 = $14,373.5 USDT. Literally, I would consider myself a millionaire with that sum in my country.

In recent weeks we have seen how BCH has even dropped below $160. A figure that is not at all pleasant at present and with which we have to deal whether we agree or not. You cannot have cryptocurrencies in your portfolio and pretend to live under a rock so that the market does not affect you emotionally. It is impossible to do it. We are always aware of the price in one way or another and although we want to go long, that is, to be doing HOLD for approximately 5 years, the daily rises and falls still affect us.

How is BCH related to Bitcoin?

BTC is the reason this entire crypto universe exists. Since its emergence in 2009 by the anonymous user (or company) Satoshi Nakamoto and after a user bought a pizza worth 10,000 BTC, it all started. Then begins machinery to buy BTC and acquire value in the market. The value that the same users are giving as money enters the system. The decentralization of BTC makes it very attractive and eventually its price goes up, and this attracts more buyers until everything explodes. It goes from being worth nothing in 2009 to being worth $68k USD in 2021. I need the time machine right now.

Endless coins and tokens have been created afterward, with various purposes. None have ever outperformed BTC, even though some are quite promising. But the concept that whoever comes first has an advantage, I think is being applied here.

Due to the problems that BTC itself brings and due to the lack of capacity to fulfill its objective as a P2P payment method, with transactions that take forever (personally a week of delay in a simple transaction) and a high commission rate, it arises the BitcoinCash. The BCH comes for being more efficient in all aspects and it has really achieved it. Even the massive adoption of it as a payment method, although it is still quite incipient and more progress is needed, is a huge achievement and its detractors can never deny it.

The BTC and BCH charts, as well as most of the market charts, follow a pattern that BTC, unfortunately, leaves behind. In very few cases they take different paths. When BTC became worth over $19k USD in a new ATH in December 2017, BCH skyrocketed to over $4,300 USD. This would be the last time it would touch an all-time high. Something broke within the BCH, and something went wrong, which unfortunately has not been able to recover its power in the market.

First ATH in 2017

December 2017

BTC: $19,000 - BCH: $4,355 (ATH)

Something hard to believe is happening here, and it was when BTC plummeted that BCH took a huge crash, from which it would not recover, at least not on a large scale.

ATL BCH

December 2018

BTC: $3,188 - BCH: $75.08 (ATL)

In May 2021, just as BTC hit $65,000 for the first time in its history, BCH fell relatively short, breaking the $1,600 mark but little else. The most curious thing comes later, just a few months later when the BTC manages to implement a new ATH, the BCH only reached a modest $720 USD.

ATH in 2021

November 2021

BTC: $68,000 (ATH) - BCH: $720

It is evident that something broke and that it did not work anymore. It was then that it would begin to fall more each day and in a prolonged time frame, it suffers a little more than the BTC itself.

Let's take as a reference some values ​​of the last days and months ago as can be evidenced in the following table.

After analyzing the data a bit, it would be fair to take as a reference that currently 1 BCH = 0.69% of 1 BTC according to the last few days.

The formula to then predict the price of BCH is as follows:

BTC Price * 0.69 / 100 = BCH Price

Let's do some math on the pump:

$35,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $241

$40,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $276

$68,700 * 0.69 / 100 = $474

$100,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $690

Now some math in the other way:

$25,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $172

$20,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $138

$15,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $103.5

$10,000 * 0.69 / 100 = $69 NEW ATL :(

These values ​​are pure speculation and based on the latest movements of the BCH with respect to the BTC. Obviously, many more factors have to be taken into account that could influence the price of both. Also, keeping the value at 0.69 is pure fantasy, as it could easily change. It is hard to even think that if BTC rises to $100,000 as is the dream of many, BCH will fall below $700.

Regardless, I was confident that BCH adoption would reach everyone eventually. That it will continue to be accepted as a payment method throughout the entire planet. Also, I refuse to believe that all the effort and years of work of many are in vain.

I trusted that eventually, the BTC would increase its value and also that the BCH finally at some point in history, managed to be recognized by the entire crypto community and manage to climb on its own to the place it deserves. It would be a dream come true for everyone. I like to dream, it costs nothing and on some occasions, they come true.

I will HOLD until the end, we will see 5 years from now if BCH is at 0, 200, 2,000, or $20,000 USD.