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What is Probability?

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Written by   23
8 months ago
Topics: Idea, Psychology, Science, Facts, Hopes, ...

The human community cannot know what will happen in the future, events such as the explanation of coincidences. Making comments about the future is among the character traits of a person.

It is not possible to make a decision with the results of the observation in the events that occur by chance and in some previously unknown events. The word probability is historically written in Latin as probabilitas. This concept is the opposite of the concept of certainty.

Probability is the expression of the result obtained as a result of random effects by measuring the risk with mathematical values. The outcome of an event that takes place cannot be predicted, but it can be one of the outcomes. The actual result can be determined by chance. Luck is something that develops unpredictably. Probability, on the other hand, is a mathematical concept obtained by the realization of something.

Probability, with its earliest known statistical calculations, was developed and emerged by Arab mathematicians working on cryptography in the 8th and 13th centuries. Mere was a very wealthy and gambler person in the 17th century. He would bet on that one of every four dice he rolled would make a 6 for sure. However, when he rolled with two dice, his bets started to get bad results and he lost because a 6 number came out 24 times.

Mere asked his friend Pascal why this game was going bad. Pascal, on the other hand, started the birth of this theory as a result of correspondence with his friend who works on mathematics like himself.

To begin with, probability was developed to study generally discrete events. At the same time, the methods are often based on integrated mathematics. However, over time, the analysis views outweighed. It was decided to add constantly changing ones to probability theory.

When we look at the definition of probability, we come across with many definitions. Probability can be grouped into two broad classes. These are objective opinions and another subjective opinion.

Objective view; Probability as the main feature emerges as the best method to describe physical behavior. Those who hold this view think that the probability of an event occurring is that the outcome of the event will occur with the repetition of the event. Frequencyism is among the best examples to be given to this objective view.

If we look at the concept of frequency, it evaluates according to the frequency of events after many trials. The best example that can be given to this is the game of tails and tails.

Subjective opinion; approaches probability from a personal perspective of what will happen and how it will happen in the future. On the one hand, the subjective view looks at probability differently from others by reflecting their personal feelings and beliefs. Thinkers who have a subjective view are used in events that are not equally likely and cannot be repeated to obtain new results. The best example of the subjective view is the Bayesian probability.

It includes expert knowledge and personal experiment results in Bayesian probability. It is based on a mathematical theorem that states how we should update our beliefs as we gain new information. Advocates of this theory think that rational creatures can continue on their way with whatever beliefs they can think of if they do not have knowledge about a subject. They assume that their knowledge is constantly updated as they acquire new information.

If we look at probability in mathematics, it is a measure of the occurrence of an event. Probability is always measured between 0 and 1. The number 0 indicates the impossibility of the probability, and the number 1 indicates the certainty of the event. The higher the probability of an event, the higher the chance of it happening. For example, when a coin is flipped, heads or tails indicate that it has the same probable rank on both sides.

Maths,

Physics,

Finance,

Artificial intelligence,

Mathematical probability is widely used in many fields such as games.

In the rapidly increasing population of the world, predicting the needs of the next year economically enables the development of mathematics and probability. Mathematics and probability play an important role in our daily life. Even if we are not aware of it, many events taking place around us take place with probability theory.

In determining the burning time of traffic lights in the city

How often will the buses we take in the city tour?

Forecasting oil, gold and currencies

With the data obtained, we can sort events such as weather forecasts. These events occur by evaluating the obtained data in terms of probability.

Probability is the basis of many branches of science, as it is used in many branches of science. This whole idea of ​​multiple worlds may sound unnecessary and unappealing, but it is not something to be thrown back. In the multi-world interpretation, it is possible to evaluate the wave function in a deterministic way. Because there is nothing that is unknown or unpredictable.

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Avatar for Greyy
Written by   23
8 months ago
Topics: Idea, Psychology, Science, Facts, Hopes, ...
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