Bitcoin's sharp drop in these days may be due to global economic issues, and large institutional banks are selling to rescue other mainstream financial positions. The computing power we are focusing on today is looking for the last bastion of the currency price: miners.

In the past three days, Bitcoin has killed from 8,000 US dollars to 5,000 US dollars, and the lowest was 3800-4000 US dollars. The market dropped by almost half. What about the hash power market?

No one is trading at a loss. In February, the computing power of Bitcoin's entire network fluctuated around 120EH, and the computing power of these days has become about 110EH. The peak computing power on March 6 was 128EH / s. Close to 130EH / s. The comparison is now down 16% from the peak. According to the average computing power, from 120 to 108-109EH / s, it also drops 10%.

So much computing power? Explain how many machines are turned off?

Simple knowledge: 1E = 1000P; 1P = 1000T,

If it is an ant T17 miner, 53T is about 50T, 1EH is 20,000 T17, ant S9K (both S9 series are counted), about half of the computing power on the market is still S9 series, about 13.5T computing power, corresponding to 1EH It is 1E / 13.5T = 74,000 units, so the computing power of a dozen EHs drops, which is equivalent to 1 million S9K units.

These miners are no longer turned on. In the article "Predicting Bitcoin mining cost after halving with computing power trends," I made a point: "After Bitcoin is halved, the overall mining cost will be 6000- 7000 $ ", the estimation here is based on S17 +, which is an energy efficiency ratio of 40W / T miner. The premise is that after the halving, the computing power of the entire network is 130-140EH / s, and the average annual electricity bill is one year. The price is 0.33 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

Now the energy consumption ratio of the S9K miner is 85W / T, which is twice the power consumption of the S17 +. Then, it is exactly twice the power consumption and has not been halved. Then, in the case of 140EH full network computing power, the S9 is still The mining cost of 7000 US dollars, combined with the computing power is not 140EH, but the current situation around 109EH, dropped by 30%, the cost is reduced by 30%, 7000 $ * 70% can be calculated that the current shutdown price of S9K is 5000 $ This is the current mining cost of the S9K miner. When Bitcoin dropped to around $ 5,000, the S9 series mining no longer made money.

Originally started in February, due to the epidemic situation, new high-power mining machines (≥50T) could not be normally produced and online mining, and the old small-power mining machines were gradually reduced. The mining machine is 5-10EH / month. Now the manufacturing industry is affected, the old computing power mining machine is slowly being phased out, and the new computing power mining machine has not come up, so the overall network computing power has been getting smaller. There is no problem with the S17 + miner. The mining cost is half of the cost of the S9K. As mentioned above, the cost of the S9K is $ 5,000. . So now there is no halving, and this energy efficiency ratio mining machine continues to dig without any problems. However, if the cost is doubled directly after halving, the cost of these 50T mining power up and the energy efficiency ratio of 40W / T miner will return to 5000 $-in the case of the entire network computing power of about 110EH.

After halving in May, the computing power will reach and exceed 130-140EH, the cost of the currency is also 6000-7000 US dollars, according to the electricity fee of 0.33 yuan. The time is extended to one year, and there is no problem with this electricity cost estimation. If the flood season comes, if the electricity bill becomes 0.2 yuan, the cost will become 4,200 US dollars. If it can reach 0.165 yuan per kilowatt-hour, this cost will be directly halved to 3,500 US dollars.

If the Black Swan incident occurs, the price of the currency will not go up, and the selling pressure will be too great. When the new machine arrives, people do n’t make money, they just do n’t dig, and the computing power will not reach 130-140E. First, even if the flood season is coming, the cost price is also 4,000 US dollars. Second, after May, the computing power will rise. It is likely that the computing power of the current 109E network will increase by 30% to 140EH, which I estimated earlier.

At present, some analysts only look at the K line to find the support level. I think it is nonsense. The technical side has collapsed. What can be effectively analyzed is the situation of mining and global economic linkage. At present, it is based on the logic of manufacturing cost. Finding the support of the currency price is relatively more reliable. Some analysts said that the price of bitcoin has reached a conclusion of 800 $ through technical analysis. I really want to say, so accurate, why didn't you say it four days ago, say it earlier, you can go short, or just sell the spot. Few people can predict this big drop and the magnitude of the big drop. In the final summary of this article, I will now state my judgment on the present, the next three months, and the year.

Miners are the last bastion of Bitcoin: First, the safe operation of the Bitcoin network is the result of the maintenance of the miners. If the miners are not playing and no one packs the blocks, Bitcoin transfers will have problems. Second, the miners will To a certain extent, it is also a fortress of bitcoin price. Even if institutions abandon bitcoin, some large and retail investors abandon bitcoin, mining machine manufacturers and miners will not easily abandon bitcoin because the equipment has been invested and the factory has already signed a contract. As long as you haven't lost money, you will stick to it.

In some cases, you need to continue mining even if you have a short-term loss. For example, if you use electricity in Canada, the ladder price, the more electricity you use, the cheaper the price. If tens of thousands of machines use electricity, all of them are suddenly turned off, or After half off, the electricity bill went up, and the gain was outweighed. This is just an example. Friends who know the manufacturing industry must know that what the factory is most afraid of is not short-term losses, and what it is most afraid of is to stop running. Of course, mining as a new type of manufacturing industry is already very good, at least the shutdown will not have a great impact on the machine itself. If it is a chemical plant or a large-scale plant, the losses caused by shutdown to start-up will be great.

It is not just miners who persist, and miner manufacturers do not want the currency price to plummet, because new orders will continue to be invested as customers make money. Bitcoin really fell into a terrible sight, and once the light show turned into a story of fireworks and cold.

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