Bitcoin Could Rise To $83,000 Against An Inflationary Backdrop!
On 1 April, the price of bitcoin rose above $60,000 for the first time since 19 March 2,020.In the first 3 months of 2,021, the cumulative increase in the price of bitcoin exceeded 100% with a high return rate of 81%.In the past March, it has increased by 27%.
For bitcoin, loose monetary policy is beneficial and can significantly boost the encryption investment market.If monetary authorities implement a loose monetary policy, funds in the market may flow into the cryptocurrency market more frequently, changing investors' expectations of cryptocurrency prices, and thus causing fluctuations in cryptocurrency market prices.Therefore, the adjustment of macro monetary policy may affect the cryptocurrency market through the way of the convertibility of real currency and bitcoin.
According to the twenty-first century economic report, at present, the U.S. stock market has been highly foamed, and the government is planning to launch trillions of stimulus plans, resulting in a loss of direction of funds, because it is very dangerous for the stock price to continue to rise, but it is also challenging to find new assets for allocation.When the expectation of US dollar inflation rises, as a currency with a real limited supply, more investors will allocate bitcoin as an asset to hedge against currency risk, and the number of new investors entering the bitcoin market may increase significantly.Vetle Lunde, an analyst with Arcane Research, an encryption data company, revealed on his Weibo account that the organization already has more than 800,000 bitcoins, representing 4.3% of the current supply.
**The long-term outlook for bitcoin is bullish, with Danny Scott, chief executive officer of a UK cryptocurrency exchange, posting on his website that the exchange's bitcoin balance is declining, a bullish indicator that could push bitcoin to a record high of $83,000.**
However, according to the J.P. Morgan Research Report, the positive correlation between bitcoin and gold, the U.S. dollar and the S & P 500 index has been enhanced in the past year, coupled with the high actual volatility of bitcoin, bitcoin is more suitable as a risk asset rather than a hedging asset.**For the participants of the cryptocurrency market, while focusing on the single market, we should pay more attention to the impact of the monetary authority's macroeconomic policy adjustment on the entire cryptocurrency market, and adjust the asset structure in a timely and reasonable manner.**
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How about the integration of vehicle enterprises and blockchain?
Toyota Motor Corporation and Toyota Financial Services Corporation officially launched the Toyota Blockchain Lab. The laboratory has been silently exploring the future of the automotive industry as early as April 2019.
To achieve its goal of becoming a "mobile company," Toyota intends to use blockchain technology to develop an environment that allows users to more openly and securely connect with Toyota and its services. The Blockchain Lab highlights Toyota's hope for further strategic partnerships with external companies.
The Japanese BUIDL company that cooperated with Toyota announced on March 16 that the blockchain platform demonstration experiment with Toyota Financial Services has been completed. It is reported that the platform aims to establish personal ID, vehicle ID and ID cooperation.
Toyota has long been a participant in the blockchain field and became a member of the R3 chain alliance in 2016.
In 2017, Toyota Research Institute of Toyota Motor has joined MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Media Lab and 5 companies to conduct research on the combination of blockchain technology and autonomous vehicles. Toyota has gathered a number of partners specializing in various technical areas of the blockchain (such as distributed, encrypted ledger technology that supports the operation of Bitcoin) to jointly study how to transplant this technology into the automotive industry.
Toyota stated in a 2017 statement that the project will open a common database to car companies and users, and everyone can safely write and share data in the database, including data on test and driving records of autonomous vehicles. And the use data of users of autonomous driving shared travel, for example, applications such as pricing of insurance for the autonomous vehicle industry.
The construction of this database will use blockchain technology.
"Hundreds of billions of kilometers of human driving data are likely to be used for the development of safety and comfort in autonomous vehicles," Chris Ballinger, head of mobile mobility and chief financial officer at Toyota Research said in a statement. "Blockchain and Distributed accounting technology will effectively process massive and mixed data from private car owners, fleet managers and car manufacturers, and help to reach the goal of autonomous driving research and development faster, in this way to improve the safety of autonomous driving technology , Efficiency and comfort. "
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Bitcoin has seen rare buy signal for the first time since 2019 bear market！
Despite the usual turbulence in the cryptocurrency market, data continues to pour in, suggesting that prices will soon rebound. An analyst now provides evidence that Bitcoin has fallen into a value zone that has never happened in the past eleven years.
**If right, there is now a short window period that puts the price of Bitcoin at a significant discount.**
Analyst Philip Swift has created a chart that analyzes the current market cap and the movement of a particular bitcoin relative to its price at the time of purchase. It's called the MVRV Z-score, which indicates that traders are currently selling Bitcoin at a deep discount. https://bitcoin.org/en?a=J0dN43LaLO
Philip Swift tweeted on Twitter: From the MVRV Z data, Bitcoin's market value has now fallen below its upper cost limit (the cost basis for buying Bitcoin), and the Z score has now fallen into the green zone. **Historically, such periods are rare and attractive for accumulating bitcoin.**
In short, the price of Bitcoin holders is much lower than usual, and whenever this happens, there will be a substantial price rebound for Bitcoin.
Others have also noted the current trend of holders selling at deep discounts. CoinMetrics.io states that the speed of Bitcoin's loss-making sale has now reached its highest level in eight years. https://bitcoin.org/en?a=J0dN43LaLO
CoinMetrics official Twitter said that the Bitcoin SOPR fell to 0.843 on March 12, the lowest level since February 2012. **SOPR is the ratio of the sold price to the paid price. A SOPR of less than 1 indicates that the investor is selling at a loss.**
There are many reasons for such a rapid sell-off. Around the turmoil in the traditional financial sector, many crises have emerged. In addition, many cryptocurrency investors need cash because of the effects of the corona virus, and related work has been suspended around the world.
As a result, they monetized a large amount of Bitcoin (asset bagging). The increase in activity on Localbitcoins.com is further evidence of this demand for fast notes. https://bitcoin.org/en?a=J0dN43LaLO
Because the virus created a market environment similar to the financial crisis, demand for cash was strong. Although there is no lack of desire to buy cryptocurrencies, fewer people have the capital to invest.
**This situation has further created a good opportunity to purchase blockchain assets at a discounted price.**
In this particular case, all commodity markets are likely to experience huge price fluctuations in the coming days and weeks. In the cryptocurrency space, there are no shortage of whales that make use of volatility to make a profit. But at the same time, cautious and stable buying is still the best strategy for most investors.
**It is worth noting that the development and adoption of blockchain is still strong, and despite the market collapse, interest in this revolutionary technology has not diminished**. Therefore, for those who are still reluctant to invest in the cryptocurrency field, it may be a good start time now.
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Cryptocurrency price decline is a market deleveraging process！
**In the context of a sharp decline in the global market, Bitcoin has plummeted 40%, and leverage-driven prosperity has ceased. In 2019, financial institutions that began to pledge and lend digital currency began to appear in the market. The currency market, driven by leverage, showed a certain false "prosperity" scene. The currency price drop is a process of market deleveraging. The price of the currency is close to being cut, but the computing power has not fluctuated significantly, highlighting the flexibility of the mining industry. There are two reasons for the elasticity of mining.**
1. The mine cannot be shut down due to the constraints of the electricity use contract;
2. Miners have a strong willingness to hold coins at a low level and expect the currency price to rebound;
**At present, Bitcoin is a special alternative asset, and its correlation with gold and emerging markets is not obvious. Although bitcoin and gold have many similar attributes, the analysis of the price relationship between the two shows that the correlation between bitcoin and gold is not high; similarly, the correlation between bitcoin and the MSCI emerging market index is not obvious. Currently, Bitcoin is still considered a special alternative asset, but in recent years, it has attracted much attention from the traditional capital market, and has certain interoperability with other assets in terms of liquidity.**
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China's blockchain talent standards help solve real industry problems！
As the saying goes, "People are best when they do their best", and even people who value education and learning during the epidemic still "suspend classes and keep on school." Live lectures, online training, remote tutoring ... on the one hand benefit from domestic Internet penetration and advanced application technology, but on the other hand also reflect people's deep understanding of the core productive forces of economic development.
In the third quarter of the "Hundred Blockchain Forum" held by Huobi Research Institute, which was launched on March 17, Zhang Xiaoyuan, the founder of Chain International, took the title of "Blockchain Talent Analysis and Interpretation of Talent Standards", Chain education, policy, market, and standard aspects reveal the source of human resources for the future development of the blockchain industry.
**The rapid development of the blockchain industry**
As an important representative of the new generation of information technology, blockchain technology will bring brand new business models and economic theories, and it has huge potential and broad space in driving the digital economy. "With the rapid development of the blockchain industry in recent years, blockchain talents have been in a state of shortage, especially cross-border talents will be hard to find." Zhang Xiaoyuan, president of Chainman International, said from a broader perspective In other words, the blockchain also includes a series of disciplines that can be studied, such as sociology, finance, and economics, each of which can be used as a second-level discipline to study specifically, and its complexity is better than most of the emerging technologies.
The previously released "Global Blockchain Industry Talent Report" shows that the high demand for overall blockchain talents occurred in the first half of 2018 (at the time the data was that the recruitment growth rate for the second quarter of 2018 reached 1,152.77% year-on-year) and gradually Fall and return to rationality. However, starting from the third quarter of 2019, with the country's emphasis on blockchain technology, the demand for market talents has gradually increased. It is believed that with the advancement of the integration of blockchain technology with the physical industry and other information technologies, blockchain talents are particularly It is the demand for compound talents.
As an expert with extensive experience in the field of talent service in the blockchain industry, Zhang Xiaoyuan believes that with the great popularity of blockchain technology, the shortage of talents in the blockchain industry will continue in the short term. In the future, the shortage of talent will be the primary bottleneck faced by many places when deploying blockchain.
China's blockchain talent standards help solve real industry problems
In fact, the shortage of talent has also attracted a large number of universities and training institutions. Major global universities, including China, are currently actively conducting courses on blockchain and encryption technology. Nearly 50% of the world's top 50 universities offer blockchain courses. At the same time, a large number of traditional information technology and financial industry talents are engaged in blockchain across borders. However, due to the lack of relevant talent standards, both enterprises, practitioners and learners who want to join the industry are "indiscriminate."
In order to make up for the lack of talent standards, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially released the "Requirements for Talent Capabilities of the Blockchain Industry" in December 2019. Based on the blockchain technology architecture and the actual needs of blockchain companies, the standard has refined the capacity requirements of 21 specific positions from the three core distribution levels of blockchain core R & D, practical technology, and industry applications.
"In the future, with the increase of the application of blockchain, industry application talents will become more extensive and diversified." As a drafting participant of this standard, Zhang Xiaoyuan pointed out that this is not only the first blockchain job capacity requirement in the country, but also the current industry. The most authoritative standard on talent.
It is understood that "100 Blockchain Forums" is a free online boutique course launched by Huobi Research, a well-known domestic blockchain research institution. This course employs well-known scholars and industry elites in the blockchain industry from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China Mobile, Baidu, Huobi China, and other institutions. From a professional perspective, it conducts three-dimensional deconstruction of the blockchain through actual case analysis. Perform in-depth analysis on current hotspots.
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IPFS / FIL big miners get double or even triple rewards on a block?
**The** **Filecoin** **testnet will start the second phase in April. So far, both the miners and investors have been very interested in the data of the testnet. The most important thing is the computing power and block rankings. Bursts are put together for comparison. But more people have come to a misunderstanding and were biased by the rhythm. Today, let's talk about how to view the hash power and burst of the test network.** http://filecoin.io/?a=J0dN43LaLO
**Take the following figure as an example:**
**The large area in the figure is the number of blocks at each height in the recent period, and different colors are used to show which miners produced these blocks.**
**On the right side of the figure is an average burst rate leaderboard. The calculation of this ranking is based on nearly an hour of burst data.**
**Take the first miner as an example. The burst rate is 0.73, which indicates that at an altitude of 73%, the miner has a burst. In Testnet / 2, the block time is 45 seconds, so an hour contains a total of 60 * 60/45 = 80 epochs, that is, the miner has about 58 blasts in an hour. And get block rewards.**
**One more thing to note is that the block explosion rate on the right side of the figure does not add up to 1, because the number of blocks generated in each round is not 1. If we count the burst ratios of all miners, then all these ratios should add up to the average of the number of bursts per round. This value is shown in the following figure:**
**After learning to watch the block, the next step is today's focus.**
**During discussions with community friends, a friend asked, is it true that in the Filecoin testnet, the reward for a large miner to dig a block is multiples of the small and medium miners? 2 times or 3 times?**
**Why is there such a problem? When looking at the testnet data, you may find that the reward brought by this burst rate shows that the burst rate is not proportional to the computing power, especially for large miners, the high burst rate is relatively low, but this is how it returns. What happened?**
**In fact, some people can get multiple rewards on a block.**
**Each round of** **Filecoin** **is a block set called tipset. This is done to minimize the number of rounds without blocks (ie, empty block rounds). At present, the test net is to increase the number of blocks to reduce the number of empty blocks. At present, the number of blocks is designed to be 5. In other words, currently there may be 5 blocks bursting at a height, and the probability of each miner producing blocks per round increases to 5 times the original.** http://filecoin.io/?a=J0dN43LaLO
**In order for miners who explode two blocks or more at a height to get the rewards they deserve, at present, as long as a few blocks are indicated in a block, and they are verified, the area is given according to the number of blocks. Block reward. If a miner explodes 3 blocks at a height, then he can get three block rewards.**
**Because the block power is proportional to the computing power, the probability of obtaining the block power with a high computing power is high, and the probability of having multiple block powers in a round is also higher.**
**However, back to Testnet / 2, at present, the block reward is not actually given according to the block production right. This part of the implementation is put into Testnet / 3. That is to say, starting from Testnet / 3, you will see the block reward implementation basically consistent with the mainnet. Testnet / 3 also started last week. After that, interested friends can pay special attention to Testnet / 3.**
**Let's go back to the question just now. If the theory does not intuitively show that the block reward obtained by the large Filecoin miners is two or three times that of the small and medium miners, then we do a simulation.**
**Based on the operation of the current test network, we assume:**
**1. The expected number of blocks per round is 5 (in accordance with the Testnet / 2 setting)**
**2. Assume that the number of miners in the entire network is 11, which meets the binomial distribution (this is more in line with the current test network situation, and according to previous network simulations, this scale can simply reflect the situation of large networks)**
**3. The network meets the ideal situation mentioned above, that is, all miners work normally, block production is normal, and there are no lone blocks.**
**Taking the miner with ID 1 as an example, its hashrate is 24.61%, the highest in the network, and the right to produce blocks is as high as 70.87% (theoretical burst rate is 1-29.13). It can be seen that a miner with a computing power of 24.6% has a great chance to include multiple block production rights in a block, thereby obtaining a higher profit than the number of blocks.**
**Then let's look at it from another angle, and compare the relationship between the block explosion rate and the number of block production votes for each of the above 11 miners.**
**Also taking Miner 1 as an example, his bursting rate is 70.87% (theoretical bursting rate is 1-29.13), and the block production right reaches 123.05%, which means that on average 100 rounds of block production, it can obtain 123.05 block production rights. With a current weighting block of about 43 FIL, it can get 5291 FIL in 100 rounds.**
**If the statistics are based on the blocks that are actually produced, the average yield per block should be 1.736 times (123.05 / 70.87).**
**And this further proves that large miners have more computing power and more block production rights on a block height, so they get more rewards on a block than small and medium miners.**
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BTC continued to fall and helped the uptrend, the second bottom is expected to become stronger
**Over the past 24 hours, mainstream currencies have generally been in a doldrums. From yesterday morning to the present, they are basically on a downward trend except for the few currencies they are trying to cover. The repeated but continuous correction of BTC has played an important role in driving market sentiment, while the strong role of BTC in the downward trend has not changed.**
**BTC**
**In the past 4 hours, the BTC closed 5 downlines. In addition to the one that has not yet completed the closing, the only remaining upline appeared when the market fell back to the latest round of deep drawdowns. After the support line was split, and it failed to help the market complete the regaining of this important technical reference, the price fell back again after a short test of the key point of 5435, and it quickly went out of a long first drop line and re- Close to the 5100 integer position.**
**For BTC, the market ’s downward momentum has shown no signs of turning after the recent round of sharp dives. The rapid downward pressure of the 4-hour 50-period moving average has continued, and the anti-high point after the first round of sharp dives has stopped precisely at The key resistance of the anti-half quartile of the recent round of decline is near 5920, and the downtrend is restarted quickly after briefly touching this resistance, which provides a very clear "charge" signal for the decline in the past half week, and The overwhelming decline that has restarted in the past 24 hours has not pushed the market to continue to fall through the existing low support, but the information shown is enough to prove that the story of the recent round of plunge and diving has not been finished, and the second bottom is expected to be only There are timing issues.**
**For BTC, the lower 4835, the position where the 0.236 golden draw of the previous round of diving was located, will become the last support for the price to once again explore the existing low point, which is near 3850. Once the market quickly falls down through 4835 The second low-cut market is expected to be completed within three 4 hours K-line time, and this low-cut low will become the key to the new wave of market direction selection.**
**To put it simply, if the market quickly falls to the 4835 line, a new round of ultra-short air pursuit can be carried out. The goal is to see the 3850 line. And if the market can stop falling and stabilize near 4835, it is believed that the market will temporarily stay in the range of 4830-5920 and there will be no effective trading follow-up opportunities in this range. As for the trading opportunities that are expected to have longer holding periods, you will need to wait for the market to test the 3850 low again or rebound to recover 5920 before it will appear.**
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IPFS and Zhejiang jointly build North Zhejiang University data center
**Recently, China's "new infrastructure" has become a hot word in public opinion, from the multiple deployments of high-level meetings to the enthusiasm of capital in the capital market. The construction of new infrastructure such as 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railways and intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence, and the industrial Internet continues to accelerate. Among them, the three major directions of big data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet are closely related to the Internet industry. They are information facilities and data information services that support the development of traditional industries in the direction of networking, digitalization, and intelligence.**
**In the next decade, the smart economy will become a new label for the Chinese economy. The new infrastructure is a fuel tank that accelerates the launch of smart economy rockets. At present, the level of infrastructure of the digital economy determines whether China can occupy a more advantageous position in the new global pattern of technological dividends.**
**On March 14th, in response to the national call, Fang Jun, chairman of the Star Alliance, Fan Guolian, CEO, Ma Xiang, executive dean of the business school, Ma Liang, head of the marketing department, and Cheng Lili, head of the channel department, went to Huzhou, Zhejiang, and went to Huzhou Science and Technology Bureau. The director and Chairman Liu, a well-known domestic operator, conducted in-depth discussions on issues related to the construction of a 5 billion-level big data center in northern Zhejiang, including policy implementation, energy consumption assessment, and commercial applications.**
**The Star Alliance North Zhejiang 5 billion big data center reached a consensus. Once completed, it will open up the first domestic application of IPFS distributed storage.**
**Such development will be a challenge for all countries！！**
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Bitcoin's last bastion: miners and mining costs
Bitcoin's sharp drop in these days may be due to global economic issues, and large institutional banks are selling to rescue other mainstream financial positions. The computing power we are focusing on today is looking for the last bastion of the currency price: miners.
In the past three days, Bitcoin has killed from 8,000 US dollars to 5,000 US dollars, and the lowest was 3800-4000 US dollars. The market dropped by almost half. What about the hash power market?
No one is trading at a loss. In February, the computing power of Bitcoin's entire network fluctuated around 120EH, and the computing power of these days has become about 110EH. The peak computing power on March 6 was 128EH / s. Close to 130EH / s. The comparison is now down 16% from the peak. According to the average computing power, from 120 to 108-109EH / s, it also drops 10%.
So much computing power? Explain how many machines are turned off?
Simple knowledge: 1E = 1000P; 1P = 1000T,
If it is an ant T17 miner, 53T is about 50T, 1EH is 20,000 T17, ant S9K (both S9 series are counted), about half of the computing power on the market is still S9 series, about 13.5T computing power, corresponding to 1EH It is 1E / 13.5T = 74,000 units, so the computing power of a dozen EHs drops, which is equivalent to 1 million S9K units.
These miners are no longer turned on. In the article "Predicting Bitcoin mining cost after halving with computing power trends," I made a point: "After Bitcoin is halved, the overall mining cost will be 6000- 7000 $ ", the estimation here is based on S17 +, which is an energy efficiency ratio of 40W / T miner. The premise is that after the halving, the computing power of the entire network is 130-140EH / s, and the average annual electricity bill is one year. The price is 0.33 yuan per kilowatt-hour.
Now the energy consumption ratio of the S9K miner is 85W / T, which is twice the power consumption of the S17 +. Then, it is exactly twice the power consumption and has not been halved. Then, in the case of 140EH full network computing power, the S9 is still The mining cost of 7000 US dollars, combined with the computing power is not 140EH, but the current situation around 109EH, dropped by 30%, the cost is reduced by 30%, 7000 $ * 70% can be calculated that the current shutdown price of S9K is 5000 $ This is the current mining cost of the S9K miner. When Bitcoin dropped to around $ 5,000, the S9 series mining no longer made money.
Originally started in February, due to the epidemic situation, new high-power mining machines (≥50T) could not be normally produced and online mining, and the old small-power mining machines were gradually reduced. The mining machine is 5-10EH / month. Now the manufacturing industry is affected, the old computing power mining machine is slowly being phased out, and the new computing power mining machine has not come up, so the overall network computing power has been getting smaller. There is no problem with the S17 + miner. The mining cost is half of the cost of the S9K. As mentioned above, the cost of the S9K is $ 5,000. . So now there is no halving, and this energy efficiency ratio mining machine continues to dig without any problems. However, if the cost is doubled directly after halving, the cost of these 50T mining power up and the energy efficiency ratio of 40W / T miner will return to 5000 $-in the case of the entire network computing power of about 110EH.
After halving in May, the computing power will reach and exceed 130-140EH, the cost of the currency is also 6000-7000 US dollars, according to the electricity fee of 0.33 yuan. The time is extended to one year, and there is no problem with this electricity cost estimation. If the flood season comes, if the electricity bill becomes 0.2 yuan, the cost will become 4,200 US dollars. If it can reach 0.165 yuan per kilowatt-hour, this cost will be directly halved to 3,500 US dollars.
If the Black Swan incident occurs, the price of the currency will not go up, and the selling pressure will be too great. When the new machine arrives, people do n’t make money, they just do n’t dig, and the computing power will not reach 130-140E. First, even if the flood season is coming, the cost price is also 4,000 US dollars. Second, after May, the computing power will rise. It is likely that the computing power of the current 109E network will increase by 30% to 140EH, which I estimated earlier.
At present, some analysts only look at the K line to find the support level. I think it is nonsense. The technical side has collapsed. What can be effectively analyzed is the situation of mining and global economic linkage. At present, it is based on the logic of manufacturing cost. Finding the support of the currency price is relatively more reliable. Some analysts said that the price of bitcoin has reached a conclusion of 800 $ through technical analysis. I really want to say, so accurate, why didn't you say it four days ago, say it earlier, you can go short, or just sell the spot. Few people can predict this big drop and the magnitude of the big drop. In the final summary of this article, I will now state my judgment on the present, the next three months, and the year.
Miners are the last bastion of Bitcoin: First, the safe operation of the Bitcoin network is the result of the maintenance of the miners. If the miners are not playing and no one packs the blocks, Bitcoin transfers will have problems. Second, the miners will To a certain extent, it is also a fortress of bitcoin price. Even if institutions abandon bitcoin, some large and retail investors abandon bitcoin, mining machine manufacturers and miners will not easily abandon bitcoin because the equipment has been invested and the factory has already signed a contract. As long as you haven't lost money, you will stick to it.
In some cases, you need to continue mining even if you have a short-term loss. For example, if you use electricity in Canada, the ladder price, the more electricity you use, the cheaper the price. If tens of thousands of machines use electricity, all of them are suddenly turned off, or After half off, the electricity bill went up, and the gain was outweighed. This is just an example. Friends who know the manufacturing industry must know that what the factory is most afraid of is not short-term losses, and what it is most afraid of is to stop running. Of course, mining as a new type of manufacturing industry is already very good, at least the shutdown will not have a great impact on the machine itself. If it is a chemical plant or a large-scale plant, the losses caused by shutdown to start-up will be great.
It is not just miners who persist, and miner manufacturers do not want the currency price to plummet, because new orders will continue to be invested as customers make money. Bitcoin really fell into a terrible sight, and once the light show turned into a story of fireworks and cold.
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Bitcoin: Does anyone believe it is "digital gold" or "digital currency"?
Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic, the prices of "digital currencies" such as Bitcoin have plummeted, with prices falling by two-thirds within a week. People should fully realize that they cannot become "digital gold", nor can they become strong currencies or safe-haven assets. They should be completely shaken from the illusion of various "digital currencies" and have a sober and accurate recognition of currencies. know.
On March 12, affected by the speed and harm of the spread of the new type of coronavirus in the world (especially the United States and Europe), the global stock market fell sharply, including 11 countries where stock market meltouts broke out and the financial markets were very panicked. . At this critical moment, those who have been enthusiastically pursued and deeply believed by many people believe that it will replace the existing sovereign currency (fiat currency) and become a new type of "digital currency" that subverts and transcends national sovereignty (borderless) in the era of the digital economy. As "digital gold", Bitcoin will become a very important hedging and hedging asset. Its market price not only did not rise, but it fell more sharply. The maximum decline in 24 hours was more than 50%, and the lowest fell to $ 3,915. , The lowest point since March 2019. This not only makes the so-called "half quotation" that many people are eagerly expecting "the new halving" (after the introduction of bitcoin, automatic halving every four years) may result in price increases, but also staged in advance In response to the "half quotation" of the market price, the price fell by two-thirds within a week, and other "digital currencies" such as Ethereum also fell sharply, causing a large number of related contracts to be liquidated, and many people suffered heavy losses. The tragic situation of the "digital currency" market such as coins has greatly exceeded people's imagination.
So, after this tragic performance in the face of the epidemic, do anyone still believe that Bitcoin is "digital gold" or true "digital currency"?
Bitcoin has established a “total amount limit (total) (the total amount of gold on the earth is limited. Intuitively, the more difficult it is to dig, the more the amount of increase will gradually decrease until it is completely depleted). 21 million), the periodical (every ten minutes) fixed output (through "mining"), the newly added volume every four years is automatically halved to the end of 2140), and the rules are built into the system Among them, using the decentralized blockchain technology, the participating nodes jointly run the system and maintain the rules to jointly verify and record the acquisition, transfer and distribution of all bitcoins, thereby forming a "decentralized, open and transparent, traceable source. And difficult to tamper with "distributed ledger system. As a result, Bitcoin is considered by many to be "digital gold" and it will be able to overcome the excessive manipulation of national sovereign currencies by the government or monetary authorities, which is prone to overspending, causing a sharp depreciation of the currency and even causing a serious inflation or financial crisis. Invisibly shameful issues such as plundering the legal wealth represented by people holding money, truly maintaining the independence, fairness and holiness of currency, becoming a true "digital currency", and because of its "periodic halving" mechanism, Not only will Bitcoin not depreciate, but it will automatically increase its value due to the regular halving of new production. Therefore, it will definitely subvert and replace the traditional national sovereign currency, which has great economic and social value, and the sooner it will participate in it , The easier it is to obtain and the more room for appreciation. This makes people full of imagination and expectations for Bitcoin, and indeed enhances its attractiveness and MLM.
With more and more people participating, especially on the basis of Bitcoin, more and more network "digital currencies" such as Ethereum have been spawned, as well as the "initial coin offering (ICO)" of network digital currencies, expanding After the application scenarios of bitcoin, the prices of "digital currencies" such as bitcoin and ether have started to rise rapidly, and their social impact has been expanding. Especially in 2016, including China, many national central banks announced that they would study and launch the “Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)” as soon as possible, making many people think that it is the new type of “digital currency” such as Bitcoin that has formed a huge amount of national sovereign currency. The shock forced the central bank to rush to launch its own digital currency, and therefore more convinced that “digital currencies” such as Bitcoin have great value. With the rapid rise of ICOs, the prices of digital currencies such as Bitcoin have risen sharply. 200 US dollars, has been rising to nearly $ 20,000 at the peak in November 2017.
During this process, mining and speculative coins became more popular in China, and they were at the forefront of the world, which also caused shocking risks. Because of this, the People's Bank of China took the lead to suspend the ICO ("9.4 Ban") on September 4, 2017, and subsequently stopped digital currency trading and liquidation of its funds, which severely hindered its development in China. But its global boom continued until it peaked in November. As more countries strengthen the control of ICOs, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fall from its peak in November, and by the end of 2018, it has basically hovered around $ 4,000. Such a large price drop could have alerted many people, but it was more interpreted as the result of hard supervision or suppression by central banks and other power agencies. The periodic decline did not represent its true value.
By 2019, more and more large institutions, including JP Morgan Chase Bank, Wal-Mart, and Facebook, have issued announcements, announcing that they will apply blockchain technology to the equivalent of fiat currencies, or structurally linked to a variety of fiat currencies. "Stable currency", which has once again stimulated people's enthusiasm for "digital currencies" such as blockchain and bitcoin, which is the first to apply blockchain technology. In addition, Bitcoin will usher in a new increase of half by May 2020 Many people began to increase their leverage to expand their positions before, pushing their prices to rise again. By the end of 2019, they had exceeded $ 12,000, and by the end of the year, they were basically hovering at the level of more than $ 8,000. In 2020, it once exceeded $ 9,000, and some people think that it is expected to reach a record high this year.
But contrary to expectations, the unexpected new crown epidemic has once again brought the price of Bitcoin back to its original form, and fully exposed that Bitcoin is simply not as strong as gold, has a strong hedge, and can become an important safe-haven asset. Finally, What can be hedged is still gold and the national debt and currencies of the most important countries.
In fact, although Bitcoin highly imitates the mechanism of gold, it is not real gold at all, but only digital "virtual gold" or "virtual assets". At the same time, this kind of total and staged output is completely set in advance, and the staged output is regularly halved. There is no room for regulation and control, making it difficult to correspond to the scale of tradable social wealth and the lack of a country. Sovereignty and legal protection, that is, the loss of guaranteed social wealth to use bitcoin for transactions, will inevitably make it difficult to maintain the basic stability of the currency value, completely violating the essential positioning of currency as a value scale and the basic logic of development and progress, and it is impossible to replace the country Sovereign currency becomes a real currency, at most it can only be a special virtual asset, or a business circle currency or community currency that can only be used within a specific range. They may become the targets of speculation, but their prices will inevitably fluctuate, and they have great financial risks. Even if a "stable coin" linked to a certain fiat currency is launched using blockchain technology, the same is true, it can only be a token. Designs that are structurally linked to a variety of fiat currencies (such as Libra) are themselves to create super-sovereign currencies, and even violate monetary logic. It is impossible to coexist with their basket currencies, and it is difficult to really launch and operate effectively!
It is based on in-depth research on currency. When Bitcoin and blockchain started to heat up in 2016, I made it clear that Bitcoin cannot become a real currency and replace fiat currency; the central bank cannot compare with Bitcoin and Ethereum. With the introduction of decentralized digital currencies, the "central bank digital currency" can only be the digitization of fiat currencies, focusing on replacing cash, and changes in issuance and settlement methods; the development of the blockchain must jump out of the bitcoin mining and coinage paradigm, Real focus on solving practical problems. In July and August before the promulgation of the "9.4 Ban" in China in 2017, based on the phenomenon of digital currency and blockchain frenzy at the time, two articles entitled "It is necessary to take a reasonable view of blockchain and digital coins" through the WeChat public account. The long text of "The digital currency must be accurately positioned and effectively supervised," strongly urged to strengthen the transaction of digital currencies such as Bitcoin, especially the supervision of ICOs, which has caused great shock (controversy) and widespread influence. Since then, it has been emphasized that the blockchain must be viewed rationally and effectively used, and network "digital currencies" such as Bitcoin and stable currencies linked to the equivalent of a single fiat currency cannot be the real currency. The release of the "Libra" white paper structurally linked to a basket of currencies on Facebook has made many people confident about its issuance and impact, and even believes that it may strengthen the international position of basket currencies such as the US dollar, which may have a huge impact on the yuan, and strongly appealed In the case that the RMB should be added to or encourage Chinese companies to issue similar digital currencies, the flag clearly states: "Libra is difficult to become a super-sovereign world currency, and it may not even be successfully launched."
Under the impact of this epidemic, the price drop of "digital currencies" such as Bitcoin should make people fully realize that they cannot become "digital gold", nor can they become strong currencies or safe-haven assets. The "digital currency" -like fantasy has been completely shaken out, and we have a sober and accurate knowledge of currency!
Your friend Doing, your blockchain information assistant！
BitMEX credit crisis broke out, futures market or reshuffle?
Two unexpected downtimes in one day on Friday were accused of manipulating the market and being boycotted. BitMEX, dangerous!
In just half a day, BitMEX experienced two unexpected downtimes in a row, and this situation that severely affected the trading experience happened exactly during the peak trading period of the Bitcoin price dive. The “contradictory” interpretation of the official BitMEX response to the downtime has exacerbated the skepticism of the market, and as a result, a resistance voice of “abandoning the use of BitMEX” has emerged in the market.
On the morning of March 13, Beijing time, China, the BitMEX crypto trading platform experienced a short-term downtime and trading was suspended. According to the official website of BitMEX, the current price of Bitcoin's perpetual contract on its platform has stopped at around $ 3,715, with trading suspensions starting at 10:15 and returning to normal at about 10:30. In response, BitMEX responded to The Cap's press director Frank Capitulation, saying that our cloud service provider has a hardware problem, which caused BitMEX's request to be delayed between 10:16 and 10:40. At present, the engineer has resolved the problem, and BitMEX has resumed normal service at 11 am.
In just half a day, BitMEX reappeared at 20:56 Beijing time on March 13th. The official response from BitMEX after the incident said that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime, and the downtime that morning was due to the same problem, not the previously stated "Cloud service provider exists hardware problem".
As soon as the outage occurred, some traders and market analysts publicly expressed doubts about "hardware problems" and said that it was BitMEX's reluctance to respond to market conditions that accelerated the decline of Bitcoin. After the platform was offline, Bitcoin A rebound quickly occurred, in part because BitMEX's huge selling pressure "disappeared" due to unexpected downtime. Some people even accuse BitMEX of stopping trading to manipulate the market.
Although BitMEX's official response said that these remarks were downright conspiracy theories, the official response to the inconsistency of the outage problem further increased the suspicion of the market.
Trader @Lowstrife pointed out on Twitter that the excessive leverage of the BitMEX exchange itself caused a large number of clearing orders to eat up orders in the market when the price began to fall, and the continuous liquidation directly led to the collapse of the price. BitMEX's behavior of suspending transactions can be understood as an operation to switch the "automatic gear" of the clearing to "manual gear". And this forced termination of the market's endless liquidation process has temporarily freed the market from selling pressure and "helped" the Bitcoin price to stabilize and rebound.
Lowstrife pointed out that the rapid rebound of Bitcoin allowed BitMEX exchange to obtain greater profits from it. He emphasized that it was not that BitMEX deliberately caused the market to collapse, but that the backlog of highly leveraged positions exacerbated the risk of rapid decline in the process of market decline, and that the rules of liquidation caused the market to collapse. However, BitMEX terminated the established "gameplay" by special means and obtained greater profits from it.
Because the point of the BitMEX platform itself to attract investors is to provide high multiple leverage services, each time the market suddenly rises and falls sharply, the BitMEX platform will appear a large number of liquidation orders. And this means that every time the Bitcoin price changes, the BitMEX exchange can get considerable profits from it. Because of this, BitMEX is often accused of "manipulating the market."
Another questioning point is that although the latest survey shows that the operation of BitMEX's insurance fund is in demand, the insurance fund did not play a role of "saving the market" when the recent round of transactions occurred. Instead, it continued to rise while plunging and Continue to create new historical highs. The balance of the BitMEX insurance fund on March 14 has reached 36,493 bitcoins. This has also attracted a lot of criticism in the market.
It is true that the market's doubts about BitMEX are difficult to have a real "result", but this time the "word-of-mouth crisis" that BitMEX faces seems to be far more serious than any previous one. According to the Skew market chart, OKEx's BTC futures trading volume was $ 12.12 billion in the past 24 hours, almost double BitMEX. It remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency futures market will change in the short term.
Your friend Doing, your blockchain information assistant！
The most beautiful 16 love words in ancient Chinese Poetry（part1）
What should love look like
Be ambitious and desperate?
Help each other till old?
Plain as water, respect as a guest?
The real love should be two people, understand each other, respect each other, not entangled, not tied up, not possessed, and then go through a long journey together.
Poetry has a kind of implicit beauty. When love enters poetry, there is a kind of poetic sweetness.
The 16 most beautiful love words in ancient poetry have finally been found.
**衣带渐宽终不悔，为伊消得人憔悴**
柳永《蝶恋花》
I love you, even if you are emaciated, I will never regret it.
**身无彩凤双飞翼，心有灵犀一点通**
李商隐《无题》
Although we can't fly together like butterflies, we can get along with each other day by day, but we have a sharp heart and a little bit of communication.
**在天愿作比翼鸟，在地愿为连理枝**
白居易《长恨歌》
When we get to the sky, we are willing to be a pair of bipeds, flying together forever. If we get to the ground, we are willing to be a pair of connecting branches, twining together and never separating.
**只愿君心似我心，定不负相思意**
李之仪《卜算子》
If you don't leave me, I will live and die together.
**愿我如星君如月，夜夜流光相皎洁**
范成大《车遥遥篇》
May we shine on each other forever just like the stars and the moon.
**山有木兮木有枝，心悦君兮君不知**
《越人歌》
There are trees on the mountain, trees have branches, I like you, like you, but you don't know.
**换我心，为你心，始知相忆深。**
顾夐《诉衷情·永夜抛人何处去》
Only by changing my heart to you will you know how much I love you.
**结发为夫妻，恩爱两不疑**
《留别妻》
Since we have been married, then, from then on, we should love our family and never be separated.
Doing takes you to understand Chinese culture! Please pay attention to me!thank you！
@Doing
