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NBA Top Shot NFT - 2020 NBA Finals Challenge - Pricing trends Part 2

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Written by ย ย 75
1 year ago

I noticed an interesting trend when tracking prices for the Moments in the 2020 NBA Finals challenge in my last post. This challenge has now closed, but have there been any change in pricing for collectors since yesterday?

Table 1 below shows asking prices and quantities for all the Moments that I have tracked for this challenge over 48 hours. I will omit Scarcity Factor from my discussion again, because I'm working on some calculations that are raw and not completed. The other variables were defined in the first article of this series.

Related reading: NBA Top Shot NFT - 2020 NBA Finals Challenge - Pricing trends Part 1

Related reading: What is a non-fungible token (NFT)?

Table 1: 2020 NBA Finals series summary by the author - Data from NBA Top Shot

Observations

The following are my observations through the perspective of someone who wanted to complete this challenge starting at the last possible moment (about one hour prior to the challenge ending):

  • The lowest asking prices for all but two Moments have dropped over the past 48 hours, ranging from 5% to 30%.

  • The cost to purchase a single 2020 NBA Finals pack was $230, but they all sold out within a few minutes of the drop on October 19, 2020. All but three of the Moments in this series have maintained their lowest asking prices above $230.

  • The biggest seller was the Alex Caruso 2020 Finals Moment with 6 sold based on my data. That means that there were potentially 6 more sets completed over the past 48 hours. The lowest asking prices for his Moment held steady, and did not drop over the past 48 hours.

  • There were 27 Danny Green 2020 Finals Moments on the market based on my earliest data (highest supply value), and his Moment now has the lowest asking price in the entire set. Is it a surprise to see it even lower than those for Miami players? A little bit for me, but there may be some recency bias attributed to that. A lot of Lakers fans questioned the quality of his playoff performance. I wonder if it will appreciate in the future?

  • No brand new collections were created over the past 24 hours, because twelve LeBron James 2020 Finals Moments remain on the Marketplace.

  • The lowest cost (excluding transaction fees, etc.) to complete one set from scratch decreased by about 5% since yesterday, down to $4,209 at time of writing. Overall, this cost dropped about 12% since I started tracking this data.

Limitations

  • Any trends may not be meaningful due to the small sample sizes recorded.

  • Although NBA Top Shot is now open to the public, just a little more than 3,300 individuals collect these NFTs based on data on the NBA Top Shot homepage.

My thoughts

The cost of buying a complete set is lower today compared to buying a complete set two days ago. That shows that it paid to be a patient collector for this series.

I observed some collectors buying 10 packs at a time when the drop occurred. Contrary to my initial reaction, it turns out this was not a crazy strategy for completing the 2020 Finals challenge. If you were extremely lucky, and only needed to purchase 10 packs to complete this challenge, your cost would have been $2,300 (excluding transaction fees, etc.). By comparison, buying a complete set from scratch at the last minute would have cost $4,209.

If you had surplus Legendary Moments from your 10 packs, you were able to sell them on the Marketplace to recoup some of your costs, and reallocate them to buy the Moments that you were missing. This strategy worked extremely well for the collectors who were fortunate to get one or more LeBron James Legendary Moments in their packs.

Even if the strategy of buying 10 packs didn't result in a collector getting a LeBron James Moment, it appears the acquisition cost to complete the Challenge could have still been lower than buying them all separately at the last minute, using strategies mentioned above. The lowest asking price for a last-minute LeBron was $1,775.

  • Cost of ten 2020 Finals packs = $2,300

  • Cost of lowest priced LeBron James = $1,755

  • Total spent = $4,075 (compared to $4,209 noted above)

Based on current pricing, these packs have offered good value one week after selling out. It will be interesting to see if individual Moments in this series hold their value in the future, and what the value of the challenge reward (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Legendary Moment) will be when it is listed on the Marketplace.

Disclaimer

I do not appraise sports memorabilia professionally, and this is not investment advice. All calculations and analysis are my own. Only spend the money that you can afford to lose.

Thanks for reading, and stay safe!

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Lead image and Graphic 1: 2020 NBA Finals -Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Legendary Moment reward for completing challenge - Screen cap from nbatopshot.com


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Resources:

  1. https://www.nbatopshot.com/search?bySets=320cae53-d585-4e74-8a66-404fa3543c19

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Avatar for CryptoWordsmith
Written by ย ย 75
1 year ago
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Comments

Nice article by you my friend

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Already subscribed dear.. back please

$ 0.00
1 year ago

We should all know this information. You have given us the opportunity to know. Thank you dear friend through your article

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you for your kind words and for visiting! =)

$ 0.00
1 year ago

You are most welcome dear

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Bet you will buy more!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

I bet you're right. ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ‘

$ 0.00
1 year ago

oh, i'm trying to save money for my next NFT purchase...my next article about it will be ready soon! thx for the tip!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Good article dear.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you, and thanks for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Its my pleasure dear.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Are you applying your strategy next time? Will you buy 10 packs at once and sell the surplus?

$ 0.00
1 year ago

i will have an update on this strategy in a future post based on the newest data that I have collected...Lol.

i treat my Moments collection as a hobby, and i budget what i can afford. i was unable to buy any packs for the 2020 NBA Finals (Legendary) series because they sold out so quickly. at the moment, the Legendaries are still too expensive for me to purchase large quantities in. depending on future value, i may decide to not invest in Legendary packs at all due to the risk of not getting a Moment with low value. to answer your question, no, it's too expensive for me to apply that strategy. a few hundred dollars i can save up, but a few thousand i can't justify.

i am looking to post on The Finals (Rare) that i did manage to purchase, so u can see the pricing trends of that series. maybe it will lead to the affirmation of your decision not to buy at all? =)

lastly, i have an ambitious plan to post an article about a completely different NFT franchise, but it will take some time. this other NFT franchise has a lot more potential than NBA Top Shot.

$ 0.00
1 year ago

I'm looking forward to all the articles you mentioned. And I'm curious to how lucrative this hobby of yours will turn out (I mean the NFTs, not the blogging. But that's actually also interesting to see. ๐Ÿ˜Š)

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Thanks for your interest! ๐Ÿ‘

For NBA Top Shot, not much in terms of expectations. the other franchise has more potential...

$ 0.00
1 year ago

I'm curious to learn about that other project of yours. ๐Ÿ˜Š

$ 0.00
1 year ago

the article is ready soon! wasn't sure how to break it up into parts at first.

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1 year ago

Yeah, I can relate to that. It's rare that I start and finish one article in one session. Sometimes that takes a few iterations. And I believe that the article becomes better with each iteration. ๐Ÿ‘

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Wonderfully written article dear

$ 0.00
1 year ago

thank you, and thanks for visiting!

$ 0.00
1 year ago

Welcome

$ 0.00
1 year ago

What is your forecast in 2 years time... Will the value surge?

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1 year ago

i'd like to see what happens when they release the mobile game. the Moments are integrated into gameplay, so you can match lineups against other mobile gamers.

the answer i get is that no one has heard about it. but the bigger question is whether anyone even knows what an NFT is...Lol.

i think it will take more than 2 years, but everything is changing so fast. my prediction is not much change in value, and then price doubling for certain Moments and some series. the Zion Williamson rookie debut may have promise if his career continues to rise. The Base Set won't appreciate much.

The Cosmic series should do well...it's the first Legendary series. Top Shot also have Challenges for Base Set, but I'm not investing in those. I can see Legendary Moments and some Rares having value.

$ 0.00
1 year ago